This columnist and many real estate leaders disagree with the news that the condominium marketplace is falling apart and that every condominium development is set to tank. To the naysayers: Let them speak to savvy, experienced, and talented real estate developers who are bullish and will continue to develop residential condominiums.

The average price per square foot of Manhattan apartments ($1,028) set a new record in the third quarter and was 6% higher than a year ago. The chief economist for Brown Harris Stevens, Gregory Heym, reported this fact.

And he isn’t alone. According to a report by Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel, the author of the Douglas Elliman Manhattan Market Overview, the average sales price of a Manhattan apartment fell to $1.29 million in the third quarter from a record high in the second quarter, but the third quarter average sales price was 12.1% higher than a year ago.

“The press has been looking for a story for some time to herald the demise of the residential real estate market, and, as the saying goes, those reports have been greatly exaggerated,” the chairman of the national real estate practice of Greenberg Traurig LP, Robert Ivanhoe, said. Clearly the boom in the condominium market we were experiencing over the last few years and reached its peak about 12 months ago has cooled and the bloom is off the rose.

“One of the interesting things that I always feel when I read these residential reports is that they weight the average sales price far too heavily,” the chairman of Massey Knakal Realty Services, Robert Knakal, said. “Hypothetically, the average price may fall 25% to $1.75 million and the market may be far better. This can happen because all of the units sold were small units. The price per square foot and the volume of sales are the important factors to look at.”

Real estate columnists should beware of the hype. They are provided a lot of it from their sources but need to write the facts — and sometimes that takes having a direct knowledge of this industry. “We are living in a world of constant information, little of which is fact and most of which is spin and that affects everyone from George W. Bush to the real estate business,” a principal at Stellar Management, Robert Rosania, said. “However, even facts can be misleading. There are leading and lagging indicators, there are also indicative stats like average units sold per annum, and average time on the market.”

Rival newspapers print just about anything on the real estate market that is provocative. But sometimes they would be smart to print what experts say even if the information is less than titillating. “I think the problem with most news reports is that they tend to look at the situation from 30,000 feet, rather than drilling down into the individual markets they can potentially influence,” the vice president and regional manager at Fremont Investment & Loan, Patrick Crandall, said.

Just consider what some people in the field say: “We just opened our sales effort for our new condominium development at 50 West 15th St., between Fifth and Sixth avenues, called the Oculus Condominium, on October 4 with an opening party. It resulted in 19 appointments for apartments,” the president and founder of Alchemy Properties, Kenneth Horn, said. “The offering plan was accepted at the end of August and in just 30 days with only word of mouth, no advertising, and no party, we sold 16 units out of a total of 47. I should point out that we are only building our foundation now, do not have a model unit and selling off floor plans and material boards. Why have we been successful to date for a project that is not scheduled for completion until 2007? I think the reason is pricing, averaging about $1,200 a square foot with great finishes and location. The way I see it if a great product is being delivered with fair pricing, then the buyers are there. If a seller is aiming for an average of $1,500 per square foot in certain mainstream areas the buyers are few.”

I’m sorry that my hard facts and figures are shutting down the party for other columnists. Read on: “Mostly what we read is that the sky is falling, yet in the space of three days last week, we sold two penthouses at J Condo, one for $2.35 million and one for $2.65 million, for $1,150 to $1,200 per square foot,” a principal at the Hudson Companies, David Kramer, said.”Our J Condo tower in DUMBO is 85% sold and still six months from completing construction. Our experience from having sold this condo for almost a full year is that the sales traffic ebbs and flows. Some patterns are predictable, the month of August is slow, and October is busy. We try to view the process as more of a marathon than a sprint, and despite plenty of articles about rising interest rates or declining prices, our sales and traffic has remained steady.”

Still not convinced, my pessimistic friends? “New York City remains a very desirable place to live,” a partner at Apollo Real Estate Advisors LP, William McCahill, said. “Once the market perceives that prices have hit the floor, demand will return, stronger than most expect. Right now the market sees a falling knife which no one wants to grasp because of fear of injury. Once the knife hits the floor, the fear will be gone.”

And now for some real estate lessons for those in the press who are nervously reading this article: “I generally tell people in the real estate field that a recession is two weeks of inactivity and that the aftermath is merely the reverberation of that event,” the co-owner and principal of Bellmarc Real Estate, Neil Binder, said. “Most people were looking for a recession far before it actually occurred. However, the press is the true stimulator of that event, if people believe that a recession is due, the press will eventually convince them that they are right.”

Mr. Crandall chimed in on this: “In terms of Manhattan, while its true inventories are climbing, it is really only in comparison to the frenzied absorption we have seen for the past several years. Demand, in fact, remains stronger in Manhattan, but buyers now know they have time to think and shop before making their purchase decision. I think buyers are taking longer to commit than they otherwise might, because they keep reading about an impending market decline in the papers and fear if they buy now their apartment will lose value.”

The press generally has no idea about the most fundamental aspects of real estate. “As I predicted a year ago, while the size of an apartment does not matter, location does, and we are merely seeing the market start to react and differentiate based on location, amenities, and quality,” the senior vice president and head of real estate for North America at HSH Nordbank, James Fitzgerald, said. “Not all condominiums are created equal and as such the ones that have been built in less prominent locations will suffer.”

“The nature of real estate development is to make educated, long term bets on markets,” the president and cofounder of Antares Real Estate, Joseph Beninati, said. “We believe strongly in the long term strength of the tri-state area economy.We believe in the values of places like Greenwich, Conn., or waterfront, or dynamic locations with solid school districts.”

Established condominiums developers, which include the Related Companies, World-Wide Development, Macklowe Properties, Zeckendorf Development and its joint venture partners of the Whitehall Funds and Global Holdings, J.D. Carlisle Development, the Clarett Group, Alchemy Properties, the Hudson Companies, Muss Development, and others have experienced and realized that location, pricing, and finishers will aid to continue the sale of condominiums.

As reported in the Monday edition of the Sun, the developer World-Wide Group is betting on Manhattan and has made an agreement with the city for a 75-year lease of a 1.5 acre site on East 57th Street between Second and Third avenues. The new mixed-use development will have two new public schools, a retail component, and 400,000 square feet of residential space that would contain 320 residential units. This new development will not be ready for occupancy for at least four years and is less than two blocks from World-Wide’s latest successful condominium, the Milan, on Second Avenue and 55th Street.

Two blocks from the Milan, the Related Companies are developing the Veneto Condominium at 250 E. 53rd St. According to the trade, some 30% of the units have been sold. This building is directly across the street from Macklowe Properties’ 310 E. 50th Street condominium, which was completed last month.

Macklowe Properties is bullish on excellent locations on the East Side and is planning to develop a mixed-use hotel and condominium on the site of the former Drake Hotel where residences are expected to be offered for more than $3,500 a square foot.Early next year, the company will demolish the former headquarters of the Anti-Defamation League on First Avenue across from the United Nations and begin construction of a luxury condominium one block south of Trump’s International Tower.

The Related Companies will construct a new condominium tower on Third Avenue and 86th Street. Related and Taconic Investment Partners are developing a 24-story building with 190 condominium apartments and 288 rental apartments in an eight-story high rise on the east side of Tenth Avenue and West 16th Street in the Highline area.

“I continue to observe that the basics of real estate are back in play and that location and quality rule,” the principal at Gladstein Development, Jane Gladstein, said. “Those projects that are extremely well located and superbly executed continue to sell. We must select our locations more carefully and plan our product more thoughtfully.”

“While some ill conceived, poorly located, or overpriced condominium projects will likely suffer somewhat in the marketplace, well designed, well located, and smartly conceived projects should sell nicely, though, perhaps, not as rapidly as a year ago,” said Robert Ivanhoe. “Fortunately, all of this should mean that the press and the pundits were wrong in their sensationalist predictions of a collapsing market.What a surprise.”

“The residential market in Hoboken, Jersey City, and Philadelphia has slowed though quality unique projects are still selling,” the principal of Hoboken Brownstone Company, Daniel Gans, said. “There is a lot of product being built and until that inventory is soaked up new starts will continue to slow down which will assist in selling of the units being currently built.”

Mr. Binder said: “My overall evaluation is that the market will remain bumpy. There will be a seesaw between seller predominance and buyer predominance that will literally change by the week. However, overall activity should be good with a slight decline of about 10% in the overall Manhattan market.”

As one developer said to me,”Each potential development deal must make sense in the context of current retail pricing with a cushion for 10% downside and a cost basis at current costs plus 10%.”

“There is plenty of capital available for developments based on the location, the sponsorship, and the economics of the development,” the senior vice president of capital markets at Trammel Crow Company, Stephen Pearlman, said.”The cost per unit is a very important factor in a lender’s underwriting and where the unit price levels are in the market.”

Mr. McCahill said, “Financing for new condo projects and conversions are beginning to dry up. Thus after the present bulge of units get absorbed, we will probably see a significant decrease in supply. Many of the aging baby boomers are now looking to sell their suburban mini-mansions and move back to the city. Once the press stops making negative predictions on housing prices, the boomers may start to snap up available inventory.”

Mr. Rosania said, “It is impossible for one environment to totally avoid what every other location has felt. With so much supply coming to market, the market is ripe for a major correction.”

“The consumer condominium market should stay in relatively good shape as all indicators are that interest rates will stay at their currently low levels and the yield curve is showing a 25% probability that the Fed will ease rates by January,” said Mr. Knakal. “Given the total stock of housing units in New York, the available supply of units is a drop in the bucket compared with what the city can absorb. The census is indicating that 1 million people will be moving to New York City within the next ten years. If seller’s expectations are reasonable, there should be no trouble selling out with an appropriate timeframe.”

In the end, the condominium market in the region can be summed up in the historic words of location, location, location — and pricing. Units will be absorbed and the sky will not fall. I also agree with Mr. Beninati when he says, “My advice is to put money in quality real estate, be patient, hold for long periods, and you will leave stock investors in the dust.”

Mr. Stoler is a television broadcaster and a senior principal at a real estate investment firm. He can be reached at mstoler@newyorkrealestatetv.com.