Record Early Turnout in Georgia for Tight Senate Runoff
Senator Warnock is aiming to appeal to voters’ reservations about his opponent, while Herschel Walker is hoping to rekindle partisan loyalties.

A week out from election day in the Georgia runoff, Senator Warnock appears to have a slight edge, and early voting in the state signals a potentially high-turnout election.
Both Mr. Warnock, a Democrat, and his Republican challenger, Herschel Walker, failed to take the majority needed to win the general election outright, triggering a runoff election on December 6.
Mr. Warnock won 49.5 percent and Mr. Walker won 48.5 percent, while the Libertarian nominee, Chase Oliver, took 2 percent of the vote. In the general election, support for Mr. Walker ran about five points behind that for the state’s Republican governor, Brian Kemp, who won re-election.
With the election day only one week away, candidates are making their final pitches to voters, and Mr. Warnock is hoping that voters will see Mr. Walker as unfit for office.
His latest ad shows clips of Mr. Walker speaking on the campaign trail about werewolves, vampires, and clouds of bad air floating in from China, before asking the viewer, “Does Herschel Walker really represent you?”
Mr. Warnock has repeatedly tried to appeal to both moderate Republicans and independents as well as Democrats. He acknowledged partisan differences at a press conference Monday, but asked voters to put those differences aside when they “consider my opponent.”
“If you think you’re tired now, imagine having Herschel Walker represent you for six years,” Mr. Warnock said at the press conference. “This is about right and wrong. And Herschel Walker is wrong for Georgia.”
Mr. Walker is aiming to tap into historic partisan loyalties in Georgia, now with the help of Mr. Kemp, who had kept his distance from Mr. Walker prior to winning his own election battle.
Historically, Republicans have been able to improve their margins between statewide general and runoff elections. The 2020 Senate runoff in the state was a notable exception to that trend.
Mr. Walker’s campaign has also been rocked by yet another round of unflattering attention of following a report from CNN last week that the former football star had been living in Texas prior to launching his Senate bid, even making campaign-related appearances from his Texas home.
There is also the question of how many voters — and which voters — will turn out for the runoff. With Democrats already set to maintain control of the Senate and Mr. Walker having underperformed in the general election, many have speculated that voters will be less enthusiastic to vote in this runoff.
Early voting data, however, is bucking that idea, with Monday seeing record turnout for the first day of early voting and more than 830,000 votes cast by mid-day on Tuesday.
What polling has been done suggests that Mr. Warnock enjoys a small advantage over Mr. Walker. A Fabrizio Ward poll showed Mr. Warnock with a four-point lead overall and a 15-point lead among independents.
Another poll, by FrederickPolls, Compete Digital, and AMM Political, suggested that the two men are tied, with 50 percent of the vote each among likely voters.
A majority of early voters so far are female, according to the office of the Georgia secretary of state. There has also been relatively high turnout among voters aged 18 to 24.
If both of these trends hold through the election, it could be good news for Mr. Warnock, as both groups tend to favor Democrats, though full data on how these groups voted in the 2022 general election in Georgia are not yet available.
In terms of money, Mr. Warnock’s campaign appears to maintain a substantial advantage, going into the runoff with about $30 million compared to Mr. Walker’s $10 million.
The handicappers are split in their assessment of the race, with some giving Mr. Warnock a slight advantage and others rating the race as a true toss-up.
DecisionDesk HQ’s model currently gives Mr. Warnock a 65 percent chance of winning the runoff, whereas the analysts at Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the Virginia Center for Politics rate the race as a toss-up.
An editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Kyle Kondik, writes that the stakes are perhaps higher for Democrats, who face an unfavorable Senate map in 2024 and have much to gain from winning a 51st seat.
“A big part of modern Senate majorities is simply keeping the judicial confirmation conveyor belt running at full speed: An extra Democratic senator would improve efficiency in that regard,” Mr. Kondik said.