Republicans Have Democrats on Their Heels in States Once Considered Reliably Blue

Republicans, fresh off a successful convention at Milwaukee and now staring down a race without President Biden, are looking to expand their Electoral College map this fall in states that were once considered reliably blue. That could force whoever ends up as the Democratic nominee to spend more time and money on the defense.In a sign of the GOP’s confidence, vice presidential nominee, Senator Vance, will travel to Virginia Monday to hold his first solo rally as President Trump’s running mate. The GOP ticket appeared together on the campaign trail in Michigan on Saturday. “Senator Vance will speak to how Crooked Joe Biden has failed the great people of Virginia,” the campaign announced. “Biden’s policies are costing hard-working Virginia families more than ever at the grocery store, the gas pump and with energy costs,” they wrote, adopting the messaging of Governor Youngkin’s successful 2021 campaign. According to polling data first obtained by Puck News after President Biden’s disastrous June debate performance, Virginia has shifted significantly toward Trump in recent weeks. Ahead of the debate, Mr. Biden had a 1.5 percent lead, but after it he trailed Trump by less than a point. An Emerson College poll released on July 18 found that Trump led Mr. Biden by two points in Virginia. Mr. Biden won the state by double digits in 2020, and no Republican presidential candidate has won the state since President George W. Bush in 2004.Down-ballot Democrats are confident of their chances to hold on to their seats. Senator Kaine, who is up for reelection this year, is leading his Republican challenger Hung Cao by 10 points, according to Emerson College polling. Before Mr. Biden withdrew from the race, he was at a “low point and I don’t believe Trump has reached his high point yet,” a Virginia GOP strategist who worked for Mr. Youngkin, Zack Roday, told the Hill. Trump, too, struggles with historically low approval ratings that could complicate the Republicans’ path to winning the election, let alone these light blue states. According to the FiveThirtyEight average, Trump’s disapproval rating has been in the low to mid 50s for years, with his approval rating stuck in the low 40s. It isn’t just Virginia that was considered easily in blue but is now in play. Republicans hope that they can make gains and possibly even flip Minnesota. FiveThirtyEight polling averages suggested that Mr. Biden was leading Trump by just one-tenth of one percent in the reliably Democratic state. Trump nearly won the state in 2016 before Mr. Biden swung it back to the Democrats in 2020. The number three House Republican, Congressman Tom Emmer, who represents suburban Minneapolis, says the state really is in play this year. “I know firsthand that Minnesotans can’t afford four more years of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, which is why I’m confident that we will make history this November when we turn Minnesota red for the first time in 50 years!” Mr. Emmer declared at the Republican National Convention this past week. “The Democrats’ disastrous record on crime, trades, and regulation has ruined the lives of countless Minnesotans.”In New England, Republicans are bullish on flipping states that haven’t been won in decades. New Hampshire, which hasn’t been won by a Republican presidential candidate since 2000, could be in play for Trump this November. Recent polling obtained by Puck found that the former president was leading Mr. Biden by three points in the Granite State. Before the debate, Trump still led, but by less than one point. The GOP could take two extra Electoral College votes in the state of Maine as well. Maine — like Nebraska — splits its electoral votes based on congressional district. Presidential candidates pick up one vote if they win a congressional district, plus two more if they win statewide. Trump won Maine’s second district in both 2016 and 2020, but lost statewide, meaning he took just one electoral vote to Secretary Clinton’s and Mr. Biden’s three each. According to the Spring 2024 poll from the Maine-based polling firm Digital Research, Inc., Trump was leading Mr. Biden by one point statewide. The Democratic congressman who represents the more conservative second district, Jared Golden, wrote in a Bangor Daily News opinion piece on July 2 that Trump was going to win the election, and that he was prepared to work with him.

Republicans Have Democrats on Their Heels in States Once Considered Reliably Blue

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