New York’s Republicans are eyeing with confidence a suburban strategy as a path to victory in the 2022 gubernatorial race, though significant challenges lay ahead.

The state’s suburban counties are “probably the most fertile ground for persuadable voters,” a John Jay professor, Brian Arbour, told The New York Sun.

He said counties like Westchester, Suffolk, and Nassau will be prime areas for GOP candidates looking to loosen the Democratic stranglehold on the governorship to pick up votes in the 2022 election.

“The big urban areas are going to go for the Democrats, rural areas will go for Republicans, and the suburbs will be the big place where Republicans can persuade voters,” Mr. Arbour said.

This strategy has borne fruit for Republicans in other states. 

In Virginia, Governor Youngkin’s victory was widely credited to high turnout in the suburbs, where his campaign managed to mobilize voters on issues like inflation, school curriculum, and Covid mandates.

In New Jersey, Republicans nearly secured victory after implementing a suburban strategy similar to Mr. Youngkin. Although Governor Murphy managed to retain office, Republicans narrowed 2017’s 12-point loss to three points.

GOP strategist Mike DuHaime has credited this nine point jump to moderate suburban voters returning to Republican candidates in the post-Trump era, tweeting that Democrats “don’t have Trump to run against anymore.”

“We saw two types of gains for Youngkin in particular, one was that turnout was really extraordinary. This was true in New Jersey as well,” Mr. Arbour said. “Voters who had been moving towards Democrats, particularly in the Trump era, are moving back.”

Those familiar with New York’s electoral landscape believe that Republicans will try to capitalize on this trend in 2022. However, the GOP will have more ground to cover in New York than in Virginia and New Jersey. 

In 2018, Governor Cuomo thumped the Republican candidate, Marc Molinaro, receiving 60 percent of the vote to the Dutchess County executive’s 36 percent.

This year, the  presumptive Republican nominee is Representative Lee Zeldin. Although his campaign has released polling showing he leads in a theoretical general election contest with Governor Hochul, 45.5 percent to 44 percent, there are dissenting opinions.

A March 28 Siena College poll found that most Republican candidates for governor “remain unknown to most voters, and even to Republicans.” The poll showed Mr. Zeldin with only 40 percent name recognition, with 20 percent rating him favorably and 20 percent unfavorably.

Meanwhile, Ms. Hochul’s favorability rating was 45 percent with those voters, with 35 percent viewing the governor unfavorably.