In Kansas, an abortion rights vote earlier this year is looming large over the gubernatorial race in which the Democratic incumbent, Laura Kelly, has a slim lead over the attorney general, Derek Schmidt, a Republican.

In 2018, Ms. Kelly delivered an upset for the Democrats, turning the Kansas governor’s office blue after President Trump carried the state by over 20 points in 2016. Now, two years after Mr. Trump won the state by about 15 points, Ms. Kelly is fighting to keep her job. 

While she was able to defeat Governor Kobach by five points, Mr. Schmidt appears to be a tougher opponent, trailing Ms. Kelly by two points, according to polling by Emerson College and the Hill.

Kansas has been on the front line of abortion politics this year, having held one of the earliest votes on abortion rights following the overturning of Roe v. Wade. It was set up to do so because of a state court case on the issue last year. 

On August 2, the state voted overwhelmingly in favor of maintaining abortion rights in the state constitution, defeating the Value Them Both Amendment by 59 percent to 41 percent. Polling ahead of the vote signaled that the option to restrict abortion had more support.

An associate professor of political science at Kansas State University, Nate Birkhead, says that alongside the economy, abortion remains a top issue in the race, and its influence could be decisive.

“If it had been a year ago I would have expected for her to lose and I would have felt comfortable putting down a wager on it,” he tells the Sun. “Things are close.”

On the one hand, Ms. Kelly has maintained a position in favor of maintaining abortion rights, and has vocally opposed efforts to remove the right to an abortion from the state constitution via amendment since January 2021.

“I’ve always believed that every woman’s reproductive decisions should be left to her, her family, and her physician,” she said then. “I don’t think those supporting this amendment are aware of the consequences it will have for the state of Kansas and our reputation.

On the other hand, Mr. Schmidt came out in support of the Dobbs v. Jackson decision as well as the Value Them Both Amendment, saying, “I will join with other pro-life Kansans in casting my vote for Value Them Both.”

Mr. Schmidt, reading the results of the vote, has since tried to reframe the topic, telling a crowd earlier this month that the vote “does not mean the discussion has ended.”

“What was not on the ballot was Governor Kelly’s position,” he said, claiming that the governor supports abortion with no restrictions “up to the moment of birth.”

Mr. Schmidt has also signaled an eagerness to put abortion as an issue in the rearview mirror, hoping that voters might focus on other issues in Novmeber.

“I think Kansans, Kansas voters, went to the polls,” he told the Associated Press. “They made a decision, I think that decision has to be respected going forward.” 

While trying to move past abortion could have helped Mr. Schmidt in another year, he must address the issue now, a professor of political science at Emporia State University in Kansas, Michael Smith, says. That’s because an independent candidate, Dennis Pyle, is running to his right and appealing to religious conservatives. He could siphon votes if Mr. Schmidt fails to appeal to them.

“I think that he’s caught between a primary electorate and a general electorate,” he tells the Sun.

He also says that Mr. Schmidt, whom he perceives as “a pragmatic Republican politician,” might have some credibility issues if he were to pivot away. 

On balance, Mr. Brikhead argues that the prevalence of the abortion issue will be a net positive to Ms. Kelly come Election Day, arguing that it will galvanize voters like it did in the primary election.

Working in favor of Mr. Schmidt is the unpopularity of President Biden in the state, and his campaign has aimed to capitalize on this through ads, with one saying, “Kelly spends too much just like Biden.”

Mr. Schmidt is also hoping that the economic woes of Kansans will work to his advantage, though Ms. Kelly’s campaign has worked to combat that messaging by associating Mr. Schmidt with Governor Brownback and his unpopular economic policies.

“Laura Kelly is attempting to argue that electing Schmidt would be a return to the Brownback era and his economic policy,” Mr. Birkhead says.

One ad suggests that Mr. Schmidt would represent a return of Mr. Brownback’s “reckless tax experiment,” before going on to show Ms. Kelly working with Mr. Trump in an appeal to bipartisanship.

Mr. Brownback implemented a plan to eliminate income tax, which later affected the budgets for the state’s roads and public schools, which Mr. Smith says are a point of pride for many Kansans.

Ms. Kelly is also advertising one of her most popular achievements: the bipartisan passage of a bill that eliminated sales taxes on groceries in the state.

What will probably decide the outcome, Mr Smith says, is not the issues or messaging of the race, but rather “who’s going to get their voters out.” 

“I think Governor Kelly has consistently punched above her weight class,” he says. “She has consistently been able to hold her own — she does not have a lock on this election but she can hold her own.”