Return of the Red Wave? Poll Shows Democrats’ Support Cratering

The biggest swing in opinion was among independent voters, who gave the Democrats a three-point edge in September and now say they favor the GOP by a 10-point margin.

AP/Andrew Harnik, file
Cornelius Whiting fills out his ballot at an early voting location at Alexandria, Virginia. AP/Andrew Harnik, file

A poll out Monday suggests that Republicans have erased the gains made by Democrats among likely voters following the Supreme Court’s abortion decision, and that economic issues are now front-and-center in voters’ minds just weeks before the November midterms.

The New York Times/Siena College poll of 792 voters between October 9 and October 12 found that voters now prefer Republicans over Democrats by a four-point margin, 49 percent to 45 percent. The previous poll, in September, had Democrats up by a point.

The biggest swing in opinion was among independent voters, who gave the Democrats a three-point edge in September and now say they favor the GOP by a 10-point margin. Independent women, who played a pivotal role in the last two presidential elections, are backing Republicans by an 18-point margin in October after supporting Democrats by a 14-point margin in September.

The reversal of Democrats’ prospects comes as economic issues such as inflation and the abysmal stock market have leaped to the forefront of issues of concern to most voters. In July, the economy was the top issue for 36 percent of voters; in October, it was the most important issue for 44 percent of voters. Those for whom the issue was most important favor Republican candidates by a two-to-one margin.

Only 5 percent of those polled cited abortion as their primary concern at the moment. Despite the findings, Democratic candidates in a number of states have made the issue of reproductive rights a cornerstone of their campaigns.

Also weighing down the Democrats is their deeply unpopular chief executive. President Biden’s disapproval rating stands at 58 percent, and at 63 percent among independent voters. President Trump’s disapproval rating in the same poll stood at 52 percent, and the former president now would come out ahead of Mr. Biden by one point in a hypothetical rematch of the 2020 election.

The poll also suggests that the Democratic base is increasingly concentrated among urban, well-educated voters. Black voters, city dwellers, and those with at least a bachelor’s degree make up the only demographic who feel like the president and his colleagues on Capitol Hill are doing a decent job. Voters without a college degree favor Republicans by 15 points.

The Times poll contradicts a Fox News effort released over the weekend that showed Democrats ahead of Republicans in the general ballot by three points, 44 percent to 41 percent. Fox’s poll of 1,200 registered voters was taken at the same time as the Times poll.


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