RFK Jr., a New Survey Finds, Takes From Both Biden, Trump in Swing States

Morning Consult reckons that Trump leads Biden in six of seven swing states, and adding third party candidates fails to change the survey outcome.

Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Capitol Hill, July 20, 2023. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

A new survey of 2024 battleground states finds that attorney Robert Kennedy Jr.’s candidacy would have a similar effect on support for both President Trump and President Biden.

The survey, conducted by Morning Consult, polls registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on matchups between just Messers. Trump and Biden and between the two men and Mr. Kennedy and philosopher Cornel West.

“Donald Trump is leading Joe Biden in six of the seven swing states we surveyed this month, and adding third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West to the ballot does not change that,” the pollster write in a memo accompanying the poll’s results.

In Arizona, the survey finds Mr. Biden trails Mr. Trump by four points in a head to head matchup and by the same margin when independent candidates are added to the mix. Mr. Kennedy would enjoy 11 percent support in Arizona.

In Georgia, Mr. Biden trails Mr. Trump by seven points in a head to head matchup and by nine points when Mr. Kennedy, who would enjoy ten percent support, is added to the matchup.

In Michigan, Messrs. Biden and  Trump would be tied in a head to head race and when third party candidates are added Mr. Biden would lead by one point. Mr. Kennedy drew 10 percent support in Michigan.

In Nevada, Mr. Biden trails Mr. Trump by three points and when independent candidates are added, Mr. Trump’s lead expands to four points. In the multi-candidate matchup, Mr. Kennedy draws 11 percent support.

In North Carolina, Mr. Biden trails Mr. Trump by nine points in a head to head matchup by the same margin in the multi candidate matchup. In the multicandidate matchup, Mr. Kennedy draws nine  percent support.

In Pennsylvania, Mr. Biden trails Mr. Trump by three points and by the same margin in a multi-candidate competition. Mr. Kennedy would enjoy eight percent support in Pennsylvania.

In Wisconsin, Mr. Biden trails Mr. Biden by one point in a head to head matchup and by two points in a multi-candidate matchup. Mr. Kennedy enjoys 13 percent support there. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 5 percent.

“When Kennedy and West’s names are thrown into the mix, almost nothing about Biden and Trump’s standing against each other changes,” the pollster writes.

Across all swing states, the survey finds that eight percent of voters who supported Mr. Biden in 2020 and seven percent of those who support Mr. Trump would vote for Mr. Kennedy. Another who percent of Mr. Biden’s supporters say that they would vote for Mr. West.

Mr. Kennedy also enjoyed a positive favorability rating in each of the swing states with a 40 percent combined favorability rating across all the states and a 32 percent unfavorable rating. Another 22 percent of respondents lack for an opinion of Mr. Kennedy.

“Should Kennedy make it to the ballot, both Biden and Trump’s campaigns would benefit from going on the attack against the leading independent candidate to keep their respective coalitions intact,” the pollster concluded.


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