All eyes will be on New Jersey early next year, as 12 Democrats and one Republican vie for the congressional seat just vacated by the Garden State’s newly elected Democratic governor, Mikie Sherrill.

The race for New Jersey’s 11^th congressional district is the only special election on the calendar before next November’s midterm elections. At stake in the midterms is the GOP majority in Congress — currently at only 5 seats, with 23 Republicans either retiring or announcing they will not seek reelection next year.

Republicans have reason to panic. The party in power usually loses seats in the midterms. The GOP did poorly in special elections and in the New Jersey and Virginia governors races this year. President Trump’s approval rating has dipped to an average of 41 percent among all voters, and it’s even lower among independents.

A Republican congressional candidate, Matt Van Epps, may have won his special election in Tennessee’s 7^th congressional district last week, but he did so by only 9 points. Mr. Trump won the district by more than 20 points in 2024. Add to this the five safe Democratic seats California will add with its redistricting, and every GOP pickup matters.

Enter a 38-year-old former Yale football player and Randolph, New Jersey, mayor, Joe Hathaway, who is the sole Republican running to replace Ms. Sherrill in Congress in a district the Cook Political Report rates a “solid D.” Mr. Hathaway has an uphill battle ahead of him, but he tells The New York Sun he can flip the seat red with his commonsense, moderate message and appeal to young persons and families struggling to buy their first homes in the Garden State.

A lifelong New Jersey resident with an all-American athletic look and a wife and three young children, Mr. Hathaway is pitching himself as a “next generation of leader” with an “affordability” message. He says he meets a lot of young people and families just starting out who tell him, “I did what I was supposed to do and worked hard and tried to make something of myself, and the system is just not working for me. It’s just broken.”

“And I think if you look at the generation that’s even younger than us, the Gen Z generation, they don’t think the system is broken — they don’t believe it works at all,” he says.

The “affordability” and “broken system” rhetoric sound a bit like Zohran Mamdani or the 2025 Democratic playbook, but Mr. Hathaway’s solutions aren’t for more government. He wants less. Instead of proposing a rent freeze or more government programs like Mr. Mamdani, Mr. Hathaway supports eliminating taxes on first-time home buyers. He says home ownership is “critical to really kick starting the rest of the success equation.”

“I believe very strongly in many of the core tenets of the Republican Party: individual freedom, national security, less government, more private enterprise,” Mr. Hathaway says. “My goal is to be a commonsense, practical leader who puts the needs of my community first.”

Mr. Hathaway’s tagline is that he’s a “workhorse” who’s willing to work across the aisle to get results, not chase headlines. He says another way to address the affordability issue is to promote vocational training so fewer young people are saddled with massive student debt after getting a four-year degree in a subject with limited future job prospects. He says addressing healthcare costs, transportation infrastructure, and smart development without “crushing the garden in Garden State” are top priorities.

The special primary election is scheduled for February 5, and the general election will be held on April 16. Mr. Hathaway is the only Republican in the race, which could work to his benefit. While he says he supports President Trump, he won’t have to cozy up to MAGA or veer right to win in a Republican primary.

Mr. Hathaway praises Mr. Trump for securing the border and for the SALT deductions and child tax credits that he says are helping residents in his district. The one Trump administration plan he lists that he opposes is the shuttering of Picatinny Arsenal, a military installation in New Jersey that provides thousands of jobs. He says he’s willing to “call balls and strikes.”

“If you’re a Republican in New Jersey you better be able to work across the aisle to get things done,” Mr. Hathaway says.

Mr. Trump will likely be the elephant in the race. “Trump can supercharge his base —and the Democrat base too. But when you are trying to row against the national trend it is always helpful to keep things as local as possible,” a Republican strategist, Matthew Bartlett, tells the Sun.

The 12 Democrats running for the seat will likely face a grueling primary. Governor Phil Murphy and a slew of state officials have endorsed Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill. The state’s lieutenant governor, Tahesha Way, is also running and has earned the endorsement of the Congressional Black Caucus PAC and Representative Gregory Meeks, but not her boss. 

A former national political director for Bernie Sanders, Analilia Mejia, is working to consolidate the progressive base. Senator Sanders and Newark’s mayor, Ras Baraka, endorsed her.

Mr. Hathaway says he’s concerned about the leftward lurch of the Democratic Party and its flirtation with socialism. “Anyone who tells you that’s not the future of the Democratic Party is just flat out wrong,” he says.

If the Democratic candidates are pushed left, it could help Mr. Hathaway. New Jersey’s 11^th district is blue, but Ms. Sherrill won it as a moderate. A Republican hasn’t held the seat since 2018. 

“NJ 11 was something of a swing district but it has been Democratic for a while now,” Mr. Bartlett says. “For Republicans right now, even the right candidate with the right vision needs the right moment to win — and right now that is hard to find for the GOP. All that said, these are very disruptive times and in today’s politics you never say never.”

Mr. Hathaway says prognostications of a 2026 blue wave are exactly why Republicans and independents in New Jersey and across the country should be paying attention to this special election. He says flipping the seat red could change the narrative heading into the midterms — or at a minimum help the GOP keep the house.

“It’s a bellwether race,” Mr. Hathaway says. “If you’re looking at this from a national picture and you’re a Republican, and you see this pragmatic young guy, local guy, local mayor with experience is able to flip what would otherwise be considered a blue New Jersey seat, I think that’s going to send shockwaves across the country.”