10 Obstacles to a Giants Victory
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You can get caught up in predictions and bulletin boards and talk of history all you want, but when the ball is kicked off Sunday at approximately 6:18 p.m., most of that guff goes out the window.
It’s at that point that the game starts and the challenges begin. And to be frank, the Giants have a lot of them. The Patriots didn’t run through their first 18 opponents, including the Giants in Week 17, without some close shaves. But with history staring them in the face and everyone healthy on a team that hasn’t lost in more than a year, the Patriots are and will be the best team the Giants have seen this season.
Here are the 10 biggest obstacles standing between them and a Super Bowl title:
1. Relative Inexperience
Twenty-three Patriots have been on a Super Bowl-winning team, and 21 of them have been with the Patriots for those games. The Giants, on the other hand, have three players with Super Bowl experience: Michael Strahan, Amani Toomer, and Grey Ruegamer — who was on the Patriots. Some scoff at the notion of a more inexperienced team being unable to win the big game, pointing to those same Patriots back in 2002, when they were extremely green yet still able to overcome the highly favored Rams. The difference is that these Patriots may be the most experienced Super Bowl team in history. That’s why the Giants’ bulletin board will be mostly bare — the Patriots hardly ever boast.
2. Brady in Big Games
There might not be a better big-game performer in the league than Tom Brady. The Giants’ Week 17 scheme was to rattle Brady with the blitz, and some elements of Sunday’s game plan have to include pressure after looking at his 26-of-28 passing performance against a Jaguars defense that routinely sent just three and four rushers.
“He has a tremendous knack for feeling pressure even though he may not see it,” Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo said. “He has a tremendous feel for how long he can hold onto it and get rid of it at the last moment. So you have to pick your spots with him. You certainly can’t do one thing all the time.”
And the Giants have to know that he’ll be at or near his best on Sunday. There’s no one way to defend him, which could put more of a burden on the Giants’ offense to match the Patriots score for score. That said, two of Brady’s last three playoff games — the game-ending interception against the Colts last year and his three-pick performance against the Chargers this year — will not be games he replays at family dinners years from now.
3. Eli as Center of Attention
This is why former Giants general manager Ernie Accorsi put all his eggs in Eli Manning’s basket, paying a heavy price to do so: to get the Giants to this game. More than Strahan or any other Giant, Manning will be the singular figure that people will focus upon on gameday. And he knows it. He’ll have his chances to succeed. The last three quarterbacks to face the Patriots, including Manning, all were able to have success throwing the ball. And if the Patriots roll coverage to Plaxico Burress’s side, that means single coverage on Toomer, wideout Steve Smith and tight end Kevin Boss. But the Patriots also know that Manning is the guy who committed 26 turnovers in the first 15 games of the season and will try to expose it.
“I think you can rattle any quarterback if you’re able to get some turnovers and get some pressure,” Patriots safety Rodney Harrison said. “We understand that we can’t just let him sit back there and play seven-on-seven with us.”
4. Run Game of the Patriots
The days of slinging it all over the yard … well, they are not over. But the Patriots’ running game has been a major factor in the team’s two playoff wins and has been a bigger part of the offense over the past five games. Laurence Maroney has run for at least 104 yards in four of the past five games — the Giants held him to 46, but he had two TDs in Week 17 — and Kevin Faulk has been a pleasant surprise, as he usually is in the playoffs.
MLB Antonio Pierce said stopping the Patriots’ ground game will be the first priority, not stopping Brady. “To me, you’ve got to stop Maroney, and then do your best to contain Brady.”
5. The Welker Factor
Randy Moss gets all the accolades, headlines, and subpoenas, but it’s slot receiver Wes Welker, scouts say, who drives the Patriots’ record-breaking passing offense.
“Watch him [Sunday],” said an NFC scout. “He goes in motion so they know if it’s man [defense] or zone. He runs those quick slants. He’s Brady’s hot read on almost every third [down] and less than seven [yards]. And that tough son of a gun can block, too.”
Added Brady, “If you choose to double-cover Randy or put extra players on Wes, then you’ve got to deal with [Faulk] and Donté [Stallworth] or Jabar [Gaffney] and go one-on-one with them.”
6. Mike Vrabel
Super Bowls bring out the best in him. He had a key pressure that led to an interception against the Rams, two sacks against Panthers in the next bowl he played and another sack against the Eagles in 2005. He has had a fantastic season as a great “system player” in this defense. And if you’re not careful, he will sneak in as a tight end in goal-line situations and catch a touchdown pass. He caught one each against the Panthers and Eagles in back-to-back Super Bowls.
7. Handling Vince Wilfork
The heaviest Patriot — and do not believe that listed weight of 325 pounds — is the enormous nose tackle, Vince Wilfork, who is built like a refrigerator. He’s also one of the best. Each of the past three seasons, the Patriots have had a different lineman who has been the team’s most dominant. All three will start on Sunday, and this year’s beast has been Wilfork, who is adept at absorbing and sometimes plunging through double teams. That means Giants center Shaun O’Hara, who missed part of the Week 17 battle, must use his hands and leverage well and work effectively in tandem with guards Chris Snee and the banged-up Rich Seubert. That’s a wide, er, tall order.
8. No Shockey
Tight ends have given the Patriots trouble at times, but it also must be said that the Giants’ passing game has been more balanced since Jeremy Shockey went down.
“We’ve got some guys now who can add to what we’re doing,” Giants offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride said. “[They’ve] made a big difference, there’s no question about it.”
And they include Boss and Smith, who haven’t made a ton of catches, but the ones that they have made have been big. Expect at least one of them to be central figure on Sunday. The Patriots will have enough trouble covering Burress.
9. Moss
Yes, he has been held quiet in the playoffs with two catches in two playoff games. But no one Patriots offensive player other than Brady makes defenses cringe and game-plan more than Moss, whose bread and butter is hitting the home run. You don’t play Moss expecting him to nickel and dime you, a la Welker.
“The last couple of weeks they’ve taken me out of the game and it’s allowing other guys to do their thing,” Moss said. “For this being my first Super Bowl, you’d expect me to say I want the ball or that I want to put up numbers, but at this point, I just want to win.”
10. Belichick
The Patriots have won three Super Bowls under Belichick, and each time he unleashed a new wrinkle just for that opponent. In Super Bowl XXXVI, when everyone and their brother said you had to blitz Rams QB Kurt Warner, the Patriots mostly backed off into coverage, playing six or seven defensive backs. They blitzed only eight times in the game — and one of them turned into a pick-six for Ty Law. Against the Panthers in Super Bowl XXXVIII, they ran the ball more than expected with Antowain Smith and used TE Daniel Graham to wham-block DE Julius Peppers nearly every play. And in Super Bowl XXXIX against the Eagles, the Patriots came out in a hybrid 4–3 defense — after playing nearly the entire season in a base 3–4 — that often featured five linebackers, two as down linemen, on the field at once.
On Sunday, the Giants will see something they have not seen from the Patriots. It could be something minor such as a different red-zone coverage. Or it could be a major change, such as not using the four- and five-WR formations they have made a living on this season. The Giants must expect the unexpected and be ready to adjust on the fly.
Mr. Edholm, a senior editor at Pro Football Weekly, can be reached at eedholm@pfwmedia.com