2004-05 NBA Preview
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The East shapes up as a two-team race, with the defending champion Pistons and last year’s runner-up Pacers all but having a bye until the conference finals. Shaquille O’Neal’s Heat loom as the biggest threat, but a weak supporting cast should keep them from seriously contending. Washington and Cleveland look to be up-and-coming but both are at least a year away. Locally, the rebuilt Knicks ought to win a lackluster Atlantic Division and could even make the second round of the playoffs. The dismantled Nets, however, will be lucky to avoid the lottery. For each team, I’ve included the starting five and their Player Efficiency Rating for last season. PER is a tool I invented that measures each player’s statistical performance, with the league average set at 15.0. Kevin Garnett had the highest mark last season at 29.4.
Atlantic Division
NEW YORK KNICKS
STRENGTH Guard play. Isiah Thomas was a point guard, and it shows in how he’s built his roster from the backcourt up. Marbury is the centerpiece, with his ability to get to the basket off the pick-and-roll creating most of the movement in the offense. The main beneficiaries are Houston and Jamal Crawford, who can create shots on their own but make a much higher percentage when others set them up with easy jumpers.
WEAKNESS Defense. The Knicks have a lot of players who can score, but few who can stop opponents. Kurt Thomas is the only quality defender in the starting five, while the only decent bench alternative is veteran forward Jerome Williams. Making matters worse, they lack a shot-blocker.
X- FACTOR Jamal Crawford. The Knicks’ main offseason pickup was originally slated as the sixth man, but he’ll begin the year in the starting lineup because Houston’s knee hasn’t healed yet. New York needs Crawford to improve his shot selection and put in a defensive performance commensurate with his skills.
Predicted Record: 41-41
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
STRENGTH Quickness. The Sixers might be the league’s fastest team. Iverson is a jet, and he’s surrounded by a squadron of athletic swingmen like McKie John Salmons Willie, Green, and firstround pick Iguodala. Add in fly-swatting center Samuel Dalembert and , this should be one of the league’s better defensive teams.
WEAKNESS Shooting. The Sixers were among the league’s worst last season and did nothing to address the problem. Iverson is a great scorer but a horrendous 3-point shooter, and the players around him don’t do much to offset it. Iverson will spend much of the game trying to drive to the basket against packed-in defenses. He’ll think he never left Athens.
X-FACTOR Will the frontcourt hold up? Last year the Sixers were decimated by injuries and forced to start scrubs like Zendon Hamilton and Amal Mc-Caskill during the stretch run. The additions of Corliss Williamson and Brian Skinner to complement Dalembert gives them more depth, which should be enough to nudge them into the playoffs.
Predicted Record: 38-44
TORONTO RAPTORS
STRENGTH Frontcourt offense. Toronto’s versatile trio features the high-flying Carter alongside teenage Garnett-clone Bosh and the vastly under-rated Marshall. The trio figures to average over 50 points a game this year, especially if the Raptors run more under new coach Sam Mitchell.
WEAKNESS Interior defense. The frontcourt can score, but the question is whether they can stop anybody. Bosh blocks shots but he’s pencil-thin and Marshall isn’t a strong presence, either. The one hope is that rookie Rafael Araujo can lay down the law in the middle.
X-FACTOR Carter. When motivated and taking the ball to the basket, Carter is a brilliant offensive force who demands extra attention from defenses and creates opportunities for the supporting cast. Too often, however, he shies away from contact and settles for contested fadeaways, leaving the Raptors’ offense at a standstill.
Predicted Record: 38-44
BOSTON CELTICS
STRENGTH Athleticism. The Celtics followed GM Danny Ainge’s blueprint of getting a younger, more active roster. Perennial All-Star Pierce now is complemented by athletic wings like Davis, Jiri Welsch, and rookies Tony Allen and Delonte West. The return of LaFrentz gives the team a mobile inside/outside threat it lacked a year ago. Payton is no spring chicken, but he still likes to get out and run.
WEAKNESS Defense. When Jim O’Brien left in the middle of last year, Boston’s defensive intensity departed with him, and it’s unclear if new coach Doc Rivers can get the team to overachieve. The question marks loom largest in the backcourt, where Payton was torched in last year’s Finals and Davis has always been MIA.
X-FACTOR The kids. Boston has five first-round draft picks from the past two years – West, Allen, wild point guard Marcus Banks, and teenage big men Al Jefferson and Kendrick Perkins. If they don’t contribute, Danny Ainge will have a hard time selling his rebuilding job in Boston.
Predicted Record: 37-45
NEW JERSEY NETS
STRENGTH Defense. The loss of Martin and Kittles leaves a hole in what was one of the NBA’s best defenses, but New Jersey should stay tough. Four of the five starters are quality defenders, including newcomer Williams, and coach Lawrence Frank is unrelenting in his intensity and preparation.
WEAKNESS Offense. The Nets struggled to score even last year, and the uncompensated loss of four key scorers figures to drop them near the bottom of the tables. This is especially true as long as Kidd, who is recovering from knee surgery, remains on the shelf. Without his ability to lead the break, the other Nets will struggle to get easy baskets.
X-FACTOR Alonzo Mourning. Attempting to come back from a kidney transplant after playing just 12 games a year ago, Mourning surprised Nets observers with a solid 12-point effort in his first preseason game on Thursday. If he can stay healthy, it will bolster a thin frontcourt and provide a much-needed post weapon for the half court attack.
Predicted Record: 30-52
Southeast Division
WASHINGTON WIZARDS
STRENGTH Starting five. The Wizards don’t have a sure-fire All-Star, but they have one of the best young starting -lineups in basketball. Arenas was the league’s most improved player two years ago but was hampered by an abdominal injury last season. Hughes and Jamison are underrated scorers who each could eclipse the 20-point barrier this season. Up front, Brown is finally a real basketball player, while Haywood’s development a year ago took nearly everyone by surprise.
WEAKNESS The bench. Washington got creamed last year when their backups failed to deliver after injuries took out Arenas, Hughes, and Jerry Stackhouse. Youngsters Jarvis Hayes and Jared Jeffries were over their heads and will need to step it up, while newcomer Anthony Peeler will have to stop the bleeding in the backcourt.
X-FACTOR Eddie Jordan. Injuries aside, last year’s Wizards were hurt by a rash of offensive selfishness that featured the guards playing keepaway with the big men. The worst offender, Juan Dixon, doesn’t figure to see many minutes, but Arenas and Hughes need to share more, too. If the coach does his job, the Wizards should be the league’s most improved team.
Predicted Record: 47-35
MIAMI HEAT
STRENGTH Shaq. Miami’s questionable status as a contender is dependent almost solely on the game’s most dominant big man. O’Neal showed signs of slipping the past few seasons as he slacked off on conditioning, but he’s found religion since his ouster from L.A. and his long-distance cat fight with Kobe Bryant.
WEAKNESS Forwards. Miami has solid guards in rising star Wade and solid vet Jones, and of course they have Shaq in the middle. But the forwards are untested. Butler did little besides launch 3 pointers last year, and second-year pro Haslem is better suited to a role off the bench. The depth, such as it is, comes from veteran castoffs like Wesley Person and Christian Laettner.
X-FACTOR Wade. His explosiveness going to the basket is undeniable, but the Olympics exposed his lack of a jump shot and a propensity for turnovers. With such a lackluster supporting cast, Miami can’t become a legitimate contender unless Wade becomes an All-Star.
Predicted Record: 44-38
ORLANDO MAGIC
STRENGTH Quickness. The Magic aren’t terribly big and they don’t shoot particularly well, but they can isolate and take people off the dribble with the best of them. Francis and Mobley will bring the same one-on-one style they used in Houston which can be hard on the eyes , but is tough to stop when they’re rolling. Hill, who is coming back from his 837th ankle surgery, is another smooth driver.
WEAKNESS Star power. The Magic will be better this year because they signed some new players, drafted Howard with the no. 1 overall pick, and sold off Tracy McGrady for parts. But neither Francis nor Mobley was particularly effective a year ago, and they’re the two main building blocks. Howard is years away from stardom, and until then the Magic’s win total will be stuck in the low 30s.
X-FACTOR Hill. He has stayed in one piece during the preseason, but his performance has been average. With that kind of output, his presence doesn’t radically alter the Magic’s outlook – other decent small forwards like Hedo Turkoglu and DeShawn Stevenson are lying around. But if Hill rediscovers the burst that made him a perennial All-Star in Detroit, Orlando will be a lock for the playoffs.
Predicted Record: 32-50
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
STRENGTH: Frontcourt. Bobcats coach/GM Bernie Bickerstaff was clever when it came to building his ros-ter, targeting the scarcer big men and letting the chips fall where they may in the back-court. He has a solid, deep front-court led by rookie Okafor, who looked to be the second coming of Alonzo Mourning while leading UConn to the NCAA title, and preseason revelation Brezec.
WEAKNESS Backcourt. Former Spurs reserve Jason Hart and veteran retread Brevin Knight will split time at the point, while the only natural shooting guard on the roster is the elderly Steve Smith. Bickerstaff will target these areas down the road as part of his plan, but the Bobcats will take their lumps this year.
X- FACTOR Attendance. Everyone knows the Bobcats won’t be good, so the real game is in the stands. Can Charlotte recreate the halcyon days when the Hornets were an automatic sellout? Or did George Shinn leave behind so much ill will that the now-jaded denizens of the Queen City won’t turn out to see their team get clobbered?
Predicted Record: 21-61
ATLANTA HAWKS
STRENGTH Forwards. Let’s just say that the Hawks won’t have many shot clock violations this year. You won’t find two more willing gunners on a roster than Harrington and Walker, who figure to spend the year fighting over whose turn it is to launch an ill-advised 3 or to begin a wild foray to the rim. On a positive note, the overmatched Hawks will have a puncher’s chance when the shots are falling.
WEAKNESS Backcourt. The Hawks are trying to get by with two non-scorers at guard. Diaw is almost comically reluctant to shoot, which puts even more pressure on Harrington and Walker to combine for 45 points every night. There’s not much in the bullpen either, although Jon Barry should provide occasional bursts of shooting prowess.
X- FACTOR Jason Collier. Hey, stop laughing. Collier showed signs of turning into a real NBA center last season. His ability to shoot from outside and draw other centers away from the hoop should open more lanes for Harrington and Walker, but he needs to provide more resistance on defense.
Predicted Record: 20-62
Central Division
INDIANA PACERS
STRENGTH Defense. The Pacers may not defend as well as Detroit or San Antonio, but they’re still miles ahead of the rest of the NBA. Artest won the Defensive Player of the Year award, O’Neal and Foster are also among the best in basketball at their positions, and Tinsley is no slouch either. Off the bench, Jonathan Bender’s length is a huge distraction and dunk champ Fred Jones has the athleticism to hang with anybody.
WEAKNESS Frontcourt depth. Everything’s relative here – most teams would kill to have the Pacers’ problems. But with Foster out four-to-six weeks and O’Neal nursing a bothersome knee, the Pacers don’t have great second options. Scot Pollard was worthless last year but will start at center on opening night, while the scrawny Bender will be forced into action if O’Neal is a scratch.
X- FACTOR Stephen Jackson. The Pacers traded away Al Harrington for Jackson, who helped the Spurs to the 2003 title before spending last year in purgatory with Atlanta. He’s turnover-prone and out of control, but he also can score in bunches and hit big shots. If he and Artest keep it together, Indy could be headed to the Finals.
Predicted Record: 55-27
DETROIT PISTONS
STRENGTH Defense. The Pistons of the second half of last season were quite possibly the best defensive team of all time. With the two Wallaces – making it virtually impossible to make a shot around the basket, Prince terrorizing the opposition’s top scoring threat on the perimeter, and a full-court pressing bench, the Pistons dominated so thoroughly that they won the championship despite an ordinary offense.
WEAKNESS Backcourt depth. Lindsay Hunter, a catch-and-shoot guy coming to the end of his career, is the main backup at the point. Rookie Carlos Delfino has to step in and contribute immediately, which suggests that the dominant bench of a year ago may take a major step backward.
X-FACTOR Antonio McDyess. The Pistons lost Mehmet Okur in free agency and rolled the McDyess with Antonio, the same guy who frustrated Knicks fans for the better part of two seasons while he languished on the injured list. Of course, he’s feeling much better now that the Knicks traded him and looked healthy and spry in the preseason.
Predicted Record: 52-30
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
STRENGTH Scoring. Believe it or not, Milwaukee was among the NBA’s top five offensive teams last season. Sharpshooters Redd and Van Horn are the mainstays, but the secret to the Bucks’ success lies in thesheer quantity of productive point guys behind them. Smith, Gadzuric, James, Toni Kukoc, and Desmond Mason can all stick an open jump shot and make a play around the basket when fed.
WEAKNESS Defense. Milwaukee was a poor defensive team a year ago and figures to get worse with the loss of center Brian Skinner. The Bucks are soft on the wings, where neither Redd nor Van Horn is an accomplished defender. Up front, Gadzuric rebounds and blocks shots but his lack of muscle makes him a dubious companion for the equally scrawny Smith.
X FACTOR T.J. Ford. The diminutive guard made an impact as a rookie, constantly pushing the pace to get easy baskets for Milwaukee’s scorers while pressuring the ball at the defensive end to take some of the heat off the Bucks’ frontcourt. However, he’s out indefinitely with a bruised spinal cord.
Predicted Record: 42-40
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
STRENGTH Frontcourt. Even without Carlos Boozer, Cleveland may have the best frontcourt in the East. James is a prodigy and should arrive as an All-Star caliber performer this season. Ilgauskas is the East’s best center this side of Shaq and demands double teams on the blocks. GM Jim Paxson made a nice save by getting Gooden after Boozer’s departure.
WEAKNESS Shooting. The Cavaliers were the worst 3-point shooting team in basketball last year and to make matters worse, they lost their best outside threat (Jason Kapono) in the expansion draft. First-round pick Luke Jackson and ex-Net Lucious Harris will be expected to help stretch defenses for James and Ilgauskas.
X- FACTOR Gooden. The high-flying forward looks poised for a breakout. He could be a perfect fit in Cleveland, where his ability to run the floor and finish around the basket make him the ideal recipient for LeBron’s pinpoint passes. His defense, however, is often lacking and his shot selection was questionable during a miserable 2003-04 season in Orlando.
Predicted Record: 41-41
CHICAGO BULLS
STRENGTH Size. The Bulls might be the biggest team in basketball. In the middle, Curry is a 6-foot-11, 285-pound low-post force who is impossible to push off the blocks. Next to him is the 7-foot-1 Chandler, who could lead the league in rebounding if healthy. The powerful Nocioni, who won gold with Argentina this summer, is huge for an off guard at 6-foot-7, and former Blue Devil Deng is equally strong.
WEAKNESS Scoring. The Bulls were terrible offensively a year ago and might be worse this year. After Jamal Crawford went to the Knicks, the Bulls were hoping that no. 3 overall pick Ben Gordon could pick up the slack, but he’s been awful in the preseason.
X- FACTOR Curry and Chandler. Curry showed up out of shape last season and had a hugely disappointing campaign. Chandler played great at the start before back trouble marginalized him. The two building blocks of Jerry Krause’s misguided rebuilding strategy are only 22 and each is heading into a free agent year.
Predicted Record: 30-52
The West has been the NBA’s power conference ever since Michael Jordan left Chicago, and Detroit’s 2004 championship doesn’t change that fact. At least nine teams could make a deep playoff run, and the defending conference champion Lakers may miss the postseason entirely in the first year of the post-Shaq era. In their absence, San Antonio is the odds-on favorite thanks to the addition of< Brent Barry. Utah and Denver both have rebuilt frontcourts that should propel them into the upper crust, while the Mavs have retooled their attack and figure to be tough. Reigning MVP Kevin Garnett should make the T-wolves tough to beat, while Memphis’s enviable depth makes it a lock for the playoffs.
For each team, I’ve included the starting five and their Player Efficiency Ratings for last season. PER is a statistical tool I invented that measures each player’s performance, with the league average set at 15.0. Garnett had the highest mark at 29.4. – John Hollinger
Northwest Division
DENVER NUGGETS
STRENGTH Frontcourt. Once the Nuggets liberated Martin from the Nets in the offseason, this became one of the best quartets in basketball. K-Mart gives the team the gritty defensive stopper it lacked a year ago, while Camby adds a shot-blocking presence who also dominates on the glass. Behind them are cat-quick big man Nene, who figures to blossom in his third season, and underrated Francisco Elson.
WEAKNESS Half court offense. The Nuggets are tons of fun when they’re running and gunning, but once the shot clock starts winding down, they don’t have a clue. The team’s main offensive “play” last season was to pass the ball to Carmelo Anthony and get out of the way, but too often ‘Melo rushed a quick jumper or forced something in traffic. Lame-duck coach Jeff Bzdelik needs more continuity if he wants to stick around.
X-FACTOR Camby’s doctor. The rangy big man played 72 games last season, a fact that will no doubt have Knicks fans in a state of shock. “Cotton” Camby had never played that many games before and is unlikely to do so again. The question for the Nuggets is whether he’ll be reasonably healthy – say,60 games – or miss most of the year.
Predicted Record: 50-32
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Strength: The Man. Garnett is the best player in basketball. The most amazing thing about the de fending MVP is his ability to play on the perimeter at both ends of the court, then recover back to the rim in time to rebound, block shots, or finish a play with a dunk. Best of all for T- wolves fans, he’s just now entering his prime.
WEAKNESS Age. Minnesota is living on borrowed time, because as brilliant as Garnett is, his teammates are fading fast. Cassell had a career year in 2003-04, but he’s almost 35 and broke down in the playoffs last season. Sprewell is 34 and desperately holding off Father Time, while backup center Ervin Johnson is 37.
X- FACTOR Chemistry. The vibes from Minnesota haven’t been as touchy-feely as they were a year ago. Cassell and Sprewell are both whining about contract extensions, Troy Hudson is still nursing a bum ankle, and the tension between Garnett and Szczerbiak is a bigger issue now that Wally’s healthy again.
Predicted Record: 48-34
UTAH JAZZ
STRENGTH Frontcourt. The Jazz seriously upgraded their front line in the offseason. First, they let go of perennial punching bag Greg Ostertag and replaced him with the far more versatile Okur. Then they added the explosive Boozer at power forward, moving All-Star Kirilenko to his natural small forward spot. The return of Matt Harpring from injury means the Jazz have more firepower coming off the bench.
WEAKNESS Shooting guard. Extremely solid at four of the five positions, the Jazz need a shooter to take the heat off their frontcourt. Right now it’s Giricek’s job to lose, but he’s more comfortable pulling up from 15 feet than launching 3-pointers.In the wings are Raja Bell and rookie Kirk Snyder, but neither seems ready for prime time.
X-FACTOR Carlos Arroyo. The elusive guard had a breakout year in 2003-04, but still had moments where he made Jerry Sloan gnash his teeth with ill-advised drives or swinging-gate defense. With backup Raul Lopez injured this year, Sloan has no choice but to leave Arroyo on the floor.
Predicted Record: 47-35
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
STRENGTH Post scoring. For years, the Blazer attack has been predicated on dumping the ball to one of their bruisers on the blocks. Randolph is the latest in a long line of post stars in the Rose City, and he’s joined by the equally adept Abdur-Rahim. Randolph won the Most Improved Player award last season but needs to improve his passing out of double-teams to justify a place on the All-Star team.
WEAKNESS Perimeter defense. Portland’s defense improved sharply after the midseason trade for Ratliff, who swatted away many of the innumerable lay-up tries by Blazer opponents. Nonetheless, Ratliff can’t get everything, and the Blazers’ other four positions are well below average defensively – especially with Abdur-Rahim out of position at small forward.
X-FACTOR Will they trade Shareef? Abdur-Rahim wants to play power forward and isn’t terribly pleased with the current arrangement. Neither is Darius Miles, who blossomed in the second half last season but has been relegated to a sixth man role. It makes sense for the Blazers to trade Abdur-Rahim for guard help, and his expiring contract could be the grease that puts a trade in motion.
Predicted Record: 35-47
SEATTLE SUPERSONICS
STRENGTH Shooting. The Sonics seemingly launched a 3-pointer from the corner on every pos session last season, and even with the departure of ace marksman Brent Barry, they have an embarrassment of shooting riches. Allen is one of the best shooters in basketball and Lewis is deadly from the corners. Off the bench, Antonio Daniels and Vladimir Radmanovic own sweet strokes.
WEAKNESS Frontcourt. Last season, the Sonics got little scoring, less defense, and no rebounding from this group. They’re hoping the offseason trade for Fortson and Nick Collison’s return from injury can at least shore up the rebounding department. However, they’re still horribly undermanned at center, with little to back up epic head case Jerome James.
X-FACTOR Lewis. He’s 6-foot-10, athletic, and can shoot the lights out. So what’s the problem? The Sonics have been waiting for him to become a 20-10 guy, but Lewis has only regressed the past two seasons. He’s still far too content to hang out in the left corner and shoot 3s, and his defense is just a rumor.
Predicted Record: 34-48
Southwest Division
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
STRENGTH Defense. The Spurs’ mellow professionalism belies the ferocity of their defensive effort, which features two of the five best defensive players in basketball. Duncan dominates the lane with his long arms, while Bowen uses his outstanding lateral quickness to frustrate opponents trying to get to the rim. At the other wing, Ginobili is a thief par excellence, while Nesterovic is an accomplished shot-blocker in the middle.
WEAKNESS Shooting. The Spurs lost to the Lakers in the playoffs primarily because no one could hit from outside. They are horrendous at shooting free throws. Help is on the way in the form of Brent Barry, perhaps the best shooter in basketball, but if his gimpy knee gives way, they’re back at square one.
X-FACTOR Tony Parker. When Parker brings his A game, the Spurs are virtually impossible to beat, as in the first two games of the Lakers series. Unfortunately, his penchant for going into funks at the worst possible time undermines the team. Entering his fourth season, the Spurs need a more consistent Parker if they hope to regain the championship.
Predicted Record: 59-23
DALLAS MAVERICKS
STRENGTH Offense. Last year’s Mavericks were the best offensive team in history, and they should be nearly as good this season. Losing Steve Nash and Antawn Jamison hurts, but a healthy Nowitzki and a full year from Daniels should make up for it. And newcomer Dampier will clean up any shots the others miss.
WEAKNESS Defense. The Mavs’ Achilles’ heel throughout the Don Nelson era, defense is again a huge question mark. Up front, Dampier is their first real center in eons, but Nowitzki is among the worst defenders at his position. On the perimeter, ace defender Finley is starting to slip, while the inexperienced backcourt of Harris and Daniels strikes little fear into opposing ball handlers.
X-FACTOR Jerry Stackhouse. After two injury-plagued seasons, it’s questionable whether Stackhouse will ever regain his All-Star form. If he does, however, the Dallas bench will be electric. With greyhounds like Jason Terry and Josh Howard alongside shot-blockers Calvin Booth and Shawn Bradley, a healthy Stackhouse would make this one of the best second units in the league.
Predicted Record: 56-26
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
STRENGTH Depth. What the Grizzlies lack in star power they make up for in sheer numbers. Last year’s squad used 10 players every game, often wearing down opponents by running them ragged with waves of substitutions. The offseason addition of Brian Cardinal means they’re now 11 deep, so opponents should bring their oxygen tanks to Memphis.
WEAKNESS Center. The Grizzlies use three players at center – Wright, Gasol, and Stromile Swift – but all three are converted power forwards who lack the muscle to keep opponents off the glass. Memphis got destroyed on the boards last season and had to double-team even modest post threats.
X-FACTOR Mike Miller. Despite his obvious potential, the 2000 Rookie of the Year hasn’t improved one iota since. Miller has a gorgeous jump shot and is incredibly effective driving to his right, but he remains a defensive liability and has yet to round out his attack with a left-handed move or any mid-range game.
Predicted Record: 51-31
HOUSTON ROCKETS
STRENGTH Star power. If the NBA playoffs were a two-on-two tournament, the Rockets would be champions. The combination of Yao and McGrady creates a fearsome inside/outside combination reminiscent of Shaq and Kobe, plus these two don’t hate each other. Yao will get the first touch down low, though McGrady should benefit from the arrangement because of all the open 3s.
WEAKNESS Forwards. Jackson and Howard make a topnotch forward combination … if it’s 1997. A tough defender, Jackson is extremely limited on offense. Howard can score but he’s softer than elevator music and will endure nightly beatings from the star power forwards in the West.
X-FACTOR Charlie Ward. With Sura out for the first two months with a back injury, the ex-Knick suddenly is thrust into the spotlight. He’ll benefit from some open 3-pointers courtesy of Yao and McGrady, but the bigger question is whether he has enough gas left in the tank to stop opposing point guards.
Predicted Record: 48-34
NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
STRENGTH Experience. In a league where teams routinely swap out half their lineup in the offseason, the Hornets’ starting five has been together for four years now. That’s most obvious on defense, where their age and lack of athleticism is more than offset by their ability to help teammates and sniff out opponents’ plays.
WEAKNESS 3-point mania. The Hornets were second in the NBA in 3-point attempts last season, but ranked 28th in accuracy. The worst offender was Davis, who took over 40% of his tries from downtown while ignoring his skill off the dribble.
X-FACTOR J.R. Smith. The rookie swingman came to the NBA straight from high school and wasn’t expected to contribute this season. But his eye-opening preseason performances have led some to suggest that he could take over at shooting guard for the fading Wesley.
Predicted Record: 39-43
Pacific Division
SACRAMENTO KINGS
STRENGTH Passing. When it’s clicking, Sacramento’s offense is a thing of beauty, and it all starts with the ability of their big men to distribute the basketball from the high post. Miller and Webber are two of the best, and newcomer Greg Ostertag is surprisingly adept as well. Their deliveries create all of the open jumpers that Stojakovic and Bibby drain.
WEAKNESS Defense. Sacramento scored in bunches last season, but they had to because their defense was so bad. The Kings are especially vulnerable in the frontcourt, where Miller and Webber are both slow afoot and don’t block shots. Bibby is also a liability. If defensive ace Christie can’t come back quickly from foot problems, the Kings are in trouble.
X-FACTOR Webber. He rushed back from knee surgery last season and tried to become the focal point of the offense right away. In doing so, he ruined what had been a dream season for the Kings. His challenge this season is to swallow his pride and become more of a passer while Bibby, Stojakovic, and ace reserve Bobby Jackson take the shots.
Predicted Record: 45-37
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
STRENGTH Wing scoring. With Bryant, Butler, and Odom spreading the floor and taking defenders off the dribble, the Lakers are going to be a handful for any defense. Bryant looks ready to explode after an off-year, while Butler also should rebound after a disappointing campaign in Miami.
WE AKNESS Point guard. The Lakers traded Gary Payton to the Celtics for scraps, and they’ll open the season with undersized veteran Atkins running the show and rookie Sasha Vujacic subbing in off the bench. This is hardly a championship combo.
X-FACTOR Bryant. The lingering fear in Los Angeles is that Bryant will turn every game into a one-on-five contest, ignoring teammates while he indiscriminately launches shots. He bristled under the constraints of Phil Jackson’s triangle offense, but now that Phil and Shaq are gone and the handcuffs are off, he seems determined to go too far in the other direction.
Predicted Record: 41-41
PHOENIX SUNS
STRENGTH Athleticism. If basketball were a track meet, the Suns would easily make the playoffs. Phoenix has three bona fide greyhounds in newly signed Nash and explosive forwards Marion and Stoudemire. A storehouse of other athletic young players like Quentin Richardson, Leandrinho Barbosa, and Maciej Lampe will come off the bench.
WEAKNESS Interior defense. The Suns don’t have a legitimate starting center, so yet again they are forced to turn to Voskuhl’s pedestrian talents in the middle. Stoudemire has terrific ability, but thus far he’s been an inattentive defender. Off the bench it gets truly pathetic, as the Suns turn to journeyman Steven Hunter and second-round pick Jackson Vroman.
X-FACTOR Health. For the third year in a row, the Suns combine three big stars with a lame supporting cast, which means that if one of the three gets injured, the season is sunk. Last year, Stoudemire went down early, and by the time he came back, the Suns were at the bottom of the Pacific.
Predicted Record: 37-45
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
STRENGTH Depth. Golden State’s second unit is nearly as good as its starters. Speedy Claxton, Mickael Pietrus, Eduardo Najera, Clifford Robinson, and Dale Davis will put the clamps on teams defensively, and they should be able to add some scoring punch as well. In a long NBA season, the Warriors will wear teams out with their bench.
WEAKNESS Management. The Warriors let go of their two best players from last season (Erick Dampier and Brian Cardinal), and used the money to instead sign Fisher and Foyle. Brilliant. Then they hired new coach Mike Montgomery from the college ranks, which works about 0.00001% of the time. Is it any wonder they haven’t been to the playoffs in over a decade?
X-FACTOR Richardson. He can stroke it from deep, he’s the best dunker in the league, and he rebounds like a power forward. Somehow that package adds up to less than a star player, and entering his fourth season, it’s time for Richardson to change that. He could start by running back on defense once in a while and learning how to shoot off the dribble.
Predicted Record: 37-45
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
STRENGTH Forwards. The two Dukies, Brand and Maggette, are the heart of the team. Brand is a legit superstar shrouded in anonymity, crushing opponents on the offensive glass and blocking shots with his freakishly long arms. Maggette is a fast and fearless driver who gets to the line nearly as often as Shaq does.
WEAKNESS Defense. The Clippers were atrocious at the defensive end last season with only Brand, Jaric, and Bobby Simmons giving anything resembling an honest effort. Maggette, who is talented enough to be an all-defense stopper, was the most egregious underachiever, but Kaman was overmatched and the guards were vulnerable to penetration.
X-FACTOR Kerry Kittles. The ex-Net is hugely important because he’s the only solid marksman on the roster and will be needed to stretch defenses. His defense is also an important asset on this team. Unfortunately, his knee is bothering him again. Perhaps the Nets dropped him just in the nick of time.
Predicted Record: 33-49