After years of playing second fiddle to the West, things are getting very interesting in the Eastern Conference. Detroit and New Jersey have claimed the past four conference titles, but several contenders have emerged this season. In Miami, Shaquille O’Neal and Dwyane Wade have a revamped supporting cast that might have made the difference in last season’s conference final loss to the Pistons. In Cleveland, free agents Larry Hughes, Donyell Marshall, and Damon Jones join forces with LeBron James, left, on what could be the league’s most improved team. And in Indiana, the Pacers welcome back Ron Artest from a yearlong suspension in Year 1 A.R. (after Reggie).

But while those contenders loom, in addition to the rebuilt Nets, all eyes remain on Detroit. Larry Brown has taken his angst-ridden act to Broadway, but Flip Saunders is a more than capable replacement, and Detroit’s starting five remain among basketball’s best. The other Eastern hopefuls know that at some point, the road to the conference crown goes through Motown.

For each team, I’ve included the starting five and their Player Efficiency Ratings for last season. PER is a statistical tool I invented that measures each player’s performance, with the league average set at 15.0.

– Mr. Hollinger will preview the Western Conference in tomorrow’s New York Sun.

ATLANTIC DIVISION

NEW JERSEY NETS

STARTERS (PER)
JASON KIDD 19.55
VINCE CARTER 22.83
RICHARD JEFFERSON 16.53
JASON COLLINS 8.52
NENAD KRSTIC 13.34

STRENGTH Perimeter talent. The Nets’ trio of Jason Kidd,Richard Jefferson,and Vince Carter is unquestionably the best in the NBA. Jefferson will have to guard opponents’ best wing player in order to keep Carter fresh enough to provide his offensive highlight reel.

WEAKNESS Post offense. New Jersey’s trio makes them a terror in the open court, but when things slow down, they’re less effective. Kidd and Jefferson are erratic shooters and the Nets have little post offense. Nenad Krstic is their most effective big man, but he’s at his best facing up for jumpers, not battling on the blocks. Bulky backup center Marc Jackson also prefers the jumper, but may be the Nets’ top post threat.

X-FACTOR The bench. The Nets’ second unit killed them last year, sucking the life out of the offense any time Kidd and Carter checked out. This year, the Nets hope to have an upgrade, but question marks remain. Jeff McInnis can score but has worn out his welcome in his last two stops. Scott Padgett and Lamond Murray can shoot but don’t play defense. And rookie Antoine Wright was so unimpressive he’s starting the season on the inactive list.

Predicted Record: 49-33

BOSTON CELTICS

STARTERS (PER)
DELONTE WEST 12.27
PAUL PIERCE 21.82
RICKY DAVIS 14.97
AL JEFFERSON 16.59
RAEF LAFRENTZ 17.34

STRENGTH Youth. GM Danny Ainge has amassed young talent at a feverish pace, and several of his acquisitions are ready to pay dividends. Foremost among them is power forward Al Jefferson, a low-post dominator just two years removed from high school. Wingman Tony Allen, center Kendrick Perkins, point guard Delonte West, and rookie Gerald Green should also contribute.

WEAKNESS Point guard. With Gary Payton’s departure through free agency, West is the starting point guard by default, but this may be too much too soon. He played shooting guard in at St. Joseph’s and hardly played last season, so experience will be a major issue. Behind him are more question marks – Dan Dickau can’t defend, Orien Greene can’t score, and Marcus Banks is out for at least half the season.

X-FACTOR Paul Pierce. The Celtics’ youth contingent could use a leader, but the surly swingman is hardly ideal for the role. Pierce’s recent antics, including his inexplicable ejection from Game 6 of the conference quarterfinals against Indiana last season, have mystified Boston fans, and the Celtics are listening intently to trade offers. The big question isn’t if the Celts will trade Pierce, but when, and for what in return.

Predicted Record: 35-47

NEW YORK KNICKS

STARTERS (PER)
STEPHON MARBURY 21.93
JAMAL CRAWFORD 15.15
QUENTIN RICHARDSON 13.59
ANTONIO DAVIS 11.12
EDDY CURRY 16.22

STRENGTH Coaching. What more can we possibly say about Larry Brown? Sure, he’ll be looking for another job in two years, but in the meantime he’ll make the Knicks better, because that’s what he’s done everywhere he’s coached. Expect a slow start and a late playoff push.

WEAKNESS Defense. Brown’s teams have always made most of their improvement on defense, and certainly there’s room for improvement here. New York ranked 26th in Defensive Efficiency last season and the roster has few defense-oriented players. The backcourt is particularly vulnerable with apathetic defenders like Stephon Marbury and Jamal Crawford and undersized rookie Nate Robinson.

X-FACTOR Stephon Marbury. The biggest variable in the Knicks’ season is what will happen between Brown and Marbury. The two were at loggerheads in the Athens Olympics debacle last summer and Marbury clearly isn’t Brown’s idea of a point guard. If the relationship can’t be salvaged, Marbury could be on the block at midseason, but demand may be limited because of Starbury’s $19 million a year contract.

Predicted Record: 38-44

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

STARTERS (PER)
ALLEN IVERSON 23.23
ANDRE IGUODALA 13.49
KYLE KORVER 12.84
CHRIS WEBBER 18.60
SAMUEL DALEMBERT 14.37

STRENGTH Athleticism. Everywhere you look it seems the Sixers have the league’s best track team. Allen Iverson is a blur. Center Samuel Dalembert can race past opposing centers and leap over them too. Swingman Andre Iguodala is a human highlight film who could end up winning this year’s dunk con test. Athletic free-agent center Steven Hunter only adds to that daunting team speed, so expect Philly to push the pace.

WEAKNESS Bench. One thing preventing Philly from taking full advantage of its jets is a deplorable second unit. Other than Hunter, Philly’s bench is waist-high in mediocrity, relying on has-beens like Kevin Ollie and Lee Nailon for major minutes. Worse yet, two key Sixers – Iverson and Chris Webber – have a history of missing 15-20 games a year with assorted injuries, putting more pressure on the subpar subs.

X-FACTOR Andre Iguodala. Iguodala is the one player who could radically alter Philly’s fortunes, but only if he can make a second-year jump similar to the one Dwyane Wade made a year ago. Iguodala certainly has the athleticism, but he lacks the dribbling skill and mid-range jumper that have made Wade so unstoppable. If Iguodala can develop in those two areas, however, he’ll be the game’s next rising star.

Predicted Record: 33-49

TORONTO RAPTORS

STARTERS (PER)
MIKE JAMES 16.52
JALEN ROSE 16.56
JOEY GRAHAM ROOKIE
CHRIS BOSH 17.54
LOREN WOODS 11.30

STRENGTH Shooting. A word of advice for Raptors opponents: Don’t leave these guys open. Nearly every Raptor specializes in the jump shot, from top scorers Jalen Rose and Chris Bosh to role players like Matt Bonner and Alvin Williams. Though the Raptors were miserable a year ago, their 38.5% mark from 3- point territory was bested only by Phoenix, and they’ll be near the top again this year.

WEAKNESS Size. Toronto may again be forced to play human stick figure Bosh at center because they have nobody else remotely capable. Last year’s lottery pick, Rafael Araujo, was a Dolly Parton-sized bust, and the only other true center on the roster is lethargic 7-footer Loren Woods. Toronto was one of the league’s worst defensive teams last season due to the lack of size, and they will be again this year.

X-FACTOR Charlie Villanueva. Cynics chided the Raptors for selecting the 6-foot-11-inch Villanueva out of UConn in the draft because he plays the same position as Bosh, but he’s looked fantastic in the preseason. With Bosh forced to play center so much anyway, Villanueva appears ready to slide in next to him at the power forward spot and provide a dose of versatility and rebounding to a lineup that desperately needs both.

Predicted Record: 25-57

SOUTHEAST DIVISION

MIAMI HEAT

STARTERS (PER)
JASON WILLIAMS 16.75
DWYANE WADE 23.17
ANTOINE WALKER 15.41
UDONIS HASLEM 15.55
SHAQUILLE O’NEAL 26.95

STRENGTH Superstars. Does any NBA team have a more powerful twosome than Shaquille O’Neal and Dwyane Wade? Shaq may be getting on in years, but his impact is undeniable. Opponents have to radically alter their game plans just to deal with the dominant beast in the post. On the outside, Wade quietly kills opponents with his smooth drives and improved mid-range jumper, and he’s still getting better.

WEAKNESS Cohesion. In an effort to get over the hump, Miami brought in point guards Jason Williams and Gary Payton, power forward Antoine Walker, and small forward James Posey. All four are talented players, and on paper Miami is the East’s best team. But they’re a volatile mixture. Williams and Payton have had run-ins with coaches at previous stops, and all four will need to sacrifice shots for Miami to win.

X-FACTOR Antoine Walker. Of all the new Heat players, none will have to alter his game more than Walker. Walker is a skilled shot creator but a horrible shot maker who tends to drag down his team’s shooting percentage wherever he plays. The key in Miami will be for Walker to be more of a passer than a scorer, because otherwise he’s just taking shots away from Shaq and Wade.

Predicted Record: 61-21

WASHINGTON WIZARDS

STARTERS (PER)
GILBERT ARENAS 21.29
ANTONIO DANIELS 18.08
JARED JEFFRIES 11.16
ANTAWN JAMISON 16.90
BRENDAN HAYWOOD 16.52

STRENGTH Quickness. Few teams have as many players who can get to the basket as Washington. Leading the way is cat-quick point guard Gilbert Arenas, who loves to break down opponents off the dribble from the top of the key. New acquisitions Antonio Daniels and Caron Butler also get to the rim with regularity, and together the three should make Washington among the league leaders in free-throw attempts.

WEAKNESS Outside shooting. The Wizards were a poor outside shooting team a year ago and lost their best long-range shooter, Juan Dixon. Of Washington’s perimeter players, only backup point guard Chucky Atkins is a credible threat from 3-point range, while the starters on the wings are inconsistent at best. As a result, the Wizards should face plenty of packed-in zones that dare them to shoot from deep.

X-FACTORS Jared Jeffries and Jarvis Hayes. Washington used consecutive lottery picks in 2002 and 2003 on the two young forwards, but they’ve provided few dividends. Jeffries started for most of last season as the perimeter stopper, but his inability to contribute offensively or on the boards has diminished his value. Hayes defends well too but has become entirely too dependent on a marginally accurate jumper.

Predicted Record: 40-42

ORLANDO MAGIC

STARTERS (PER)
STEVE FRANCIS 18.88
DESHAWN STEVENSON 9.26
HEDO TURKOGLU 16.04
DWIGHT HOWARD 17.23
KELVIN CATO 14.91

STRENGTH Frontcourt size. Not many teams go 6-foot-10, 6-foot-11, 6-foot-11 along the front line, but that’s what Orlando possesses in the trio of Hedo Turkoglu, Dwight Howard, and Kelvin Cato. In his second season out of high school, Howard should become much more of a force down low – especially if the guards pass him the ball once in a while. Mean while, Cato and 7-foot-1-inch backup Mario Kasun will lay down the law in the middle.

WEAKNESS Shooting guard. Orlando wants to open the season with modestly talented DeShawn Stevenson at shooting guard, but it likely will play much of the year in a small ball alignment that has Steve Francis there and Keyon Dooling or Jameer Nelson running the point. That arrangement isn’t perfect either, since Francis isn’t a catch-and-shoot guy and lacks size, so new coach Brian Hill will be scrambling for solutions all year.

X-FACTOR Jameer Nelson. Overshadowed in the hype surrounding Howard a year ago was Nelson’s promising rookie season. The guard now needs to take a step forward to make the small-ball arrangement work. If he can feed Howard in the post and still find enough touches to keep Francis and Grant Hill (when he returns from surgery) happy, Orlando could launch a stealth playoff run.

Predicted Record: 36-46

ATLANTA HAWKS

STARTERS (PER)
JOE JOHNSON 15.18
JOSH CHILDRESS 15.20
JOSH SMITH 15.43
AL HARRINGTON 14.32
ZAZA PACHULIA 14.32

STRENGTH: Forwards. Seemingly everyone on Atlanta’s roster is 6-foot-9 and can jump. That list includes the dunk champ, Josh Smith, who added 20 pounds of muscle in the off-season, and Al Harrington, who is likely to be the team’s top scorer. The latest addition is rookie Marvin Williams, who started slowly in preseason but has shown enough flashes to ex plain how he was the second overall pick in the draft.

WEAKNESS Point guard. Atlanta signed Joe Johnson as a free agent but has him slated to start at point guard, even though he’s 6-foot-8 and not particularly fleet of foot. That should result in plenty of turnovers for the Hawks, but the only available Plan B is journeyman Tyronn Lue. If the Hawks trade free agent to-be Harrington at midseason, don’t be surprised if they demand a true point guard in return.

X-FACTOR Zaza Pachulia. An afterthought in the free-agent market, Pachulia signed with lowly Atlanta to take over the starting center job and has played very well in the preseason. He’ll need to keep it up, because with the death of backup Jason Collier, the Hawks are extremely thin in the frontcourt. Fortunately for Atlanta, Pachulia’s per-minute numbers from Milwaukee suggest he was underrated this summer.

Predicted Record: 22-60

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS

STARTERS (PER)
BREVIN KNIGHT 18.06
KAREEM RUSH 10.02
GERALD WALLACE 14.07
EMEKA OKAFOR 16.35
PRIMOZ BREZEC 16.17

STRENGTH Frontcourt. For an expansion team, the Bobcats have a very respectable front line. Defending Rookie of the Year Emeka Okafor gives the ‘Cats a reliable post option, while center Primoz Brezec is a skilled high-post center. Behind them is rookie forward Sean May, who led North Carolina to the national title a year ago, and solid if unspectacular center Melvin Ely.

WEAKNESS Shooting guard. Charlotte has NBA-quality players at every other position, but the shooting guard spot is a disaster. Last year, the Bobcats alternated between Keith Bogans and Kareem Rush, and if there were worse starting off-guards in the NBA, I’d like to know who they were. Despite shooting 39.6% for Charlotte a year ago, Rush appears to have won the “competition” for the starting job.

X-FACTOR Matt Carroll. Carroll is the one player who could potentially bring credibility to the shooting guard spot. A late season call-up after winning the NBDL MVP award, the one-time Knick averaged better than a point every two minutes and surprised with his ability to get to the basket and draw fouls. If he can do that over a full season, it’s only a matter of time before the starting job is his.

Predicted Record: 18-64

CENTRAL DIVISION

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS

STARTERS (PER)
ERIC SNOW 8.95
LARRY HUGHES 21.63
LEBRON JAMES 25.75
DREW GOODEN 19.77
ZYDRUNAS ILGAUSKAS 19.55

STRENGTH Offense. With LeBron James, Larry Hughes, and Zydrunas Il guaskas on , Cavs have three big-time scorers, including one who could end up being the best player in the league this year. (You know which.) Plus, by adding sharpshooters Damon Jones and Donyell Marshall, the Cavs should go from among the league’s worst 3-point shooting teams to one of the best. And by stretching opposing defenses, they’ll give LeBron even more room to operate.

WEAKNESS Interior defense. Ilgauskas, Marshall, and power forward Drew Gooden all are solid rebounders who can fill up the basket. But none are renowned for their defensive talents, which could give Cleveland problems against the Shaqs and Jermaine O’Neals of the world. The immobile Ilgauskas, in particular, tends to be a liability despite his 7-foot-3 frame.

X-FACTOR Drew Gooden. Gooden may be the difference between the Cavs being legit contenders or mere also-rans. On the one hand, his talent is hard to deny. He’s a top-notch rebounder, can hit open jumpers, and has quick feet and hands. But his defensive lapses have driven his coaches crazy, and on this roster he’ll need to adopt a more defensive mentality and become the frontcourt stopper.

Predicted Record: 57-25

INDIANA PACERS

STARTERS (PER)
JAMAAL TINSLEY 18.57
STEPHEN JACKSON 15.87
RON ARTEST 23.52
AUSTIN CROSHERE 13.52
JERMAINE O’NEAL 22.85

STRENGTH Depth. The Pacers are the NBA’s deepest team. They’re so deep, in fact, that coach Rick Carlisle’s biggest challenge will be keeping all the egos in check. The roster is piled highest at point guard, with Jamaal Tinsley, Anthony Johnson, and Sarunas Jasikevicius. Small forward is nearly as crowded, with Ron Artest, Danny Granger, and Jonathan Bender.

WEAKNESS Injuries. While the Pacers have the depth to fill in the gaps when a star is hurt, it’s tough for them to beat good teams in the playoffs unless Tinsley and Jermaine O’Neal are healthy. That hasn’t been the case the past two years. O’Neal hurt his knee two years ago and his shoulder a year ago, while Tinsley has broken down in the stretch run in consecutive years.

X-FACTOR Ron Artest. Artest is back from a year-long suspension, but early returns suggest he’s still as crazy as ever. Still, the Penthouse cover boy is the league’s best small forward not named LeBron. The Pacers are keeping their fingers crossed that he can make it through the season without punching any fans or otherwise torpedoing their season.

Predicted Record: 54-28

DETROIT PISTONS

STARTERS (PER)
CHAUNCEY BILLUPS 19.05
RICHARD HAMILTON 15.96
TAYSHAUN PRINCE 16.23
RASHEED WALLACE 16.39
BEN WALLACE 17.52

STRENGTH Defense. The Pistons don’t beat opponents, they suffocate them. With three long-armed shot blockers roaming the paint in Ben Wallace, Rasheed Wallace, and Tayshaun Prince, the Pistons wipe away mistakes that would be dunks against other teams. That emboldens the perimeter players to tighten the screws by pressuring the ball.

WEAKNESS Backcourt depth. Behind the solid starting five are mostly question marks, especially at the guard spots. Backup point guard Carlos Arroyo is a shaky shooter with a penchant for recklessness. Reserve shooting guard Carlos Delfino also struggles from the outside and is battling back from a knee injury that cost him most of last season.

X-FACTOR Darko Milicic. Now that Larry Brown is gone, it’s put up or shut up time for the second pick in the 2003 draft. Milicic played horribly in his limited minutes the past two years, but he played much better in the preseason. Saunders will need him to produce, because Detroit’s only reliable frontcourt reserve is oft-injured Antonio McDyess.

Predicted Record: 48-34

MILWAUKEE BUCKS

STARTERS (PER)
T.J. FORD NA
MICHAEL REDD 18.30
BOBBY SIMMONS 16.10
JOE SMITH 14.97
JAMAAL MAGLOIRE 12.80

STRENGTH Center. The Bucks have had a hole in the middle ever since Bob Lanier left, but suddenly they’re drowning in quality centers. Slick-passing rookie Andrew Bogut was the top pick in the draft, while newly acquired Jamaal Magloire adds a solid post game and quality defense. The lone holdover, lanky shot-blocker Dan Gadzuric, was no slouch either, but now might be traded for help elsewhere.

WEAKNESS Power forward. While the Bucks have three centers, each seems a bit slow to man the power forward spot. That leaves Milwaukee depending on the aging duo of Joe Smith and Toni Kukoc. Both lack the muscle to keep opponents out of the paint, and each is in decline at the offensive end as well. Smith also is injured, so Milwaukee will try Bogut as the opening night starter.

X-FACTOR T.J. Ford. Ford missed all of last season with a bruised spine, but the speedster was cleared to play and will take over the starting point guard spot. The Bucks need him to produce and stay healthy, because the their only other point man is Maurice Williams. With shooters like Michael Redd and Bobby Simmons alongside a slew of new big men, a healthy Ford should be able to pile up the assists.

Predicted Record: 42-40

CHICAGO BULLS

STARTERS (PER)
KIRK HINRICH 15.23
CHRIS DUHON 9.80
LUOL DENG 14.16
MICHAEL SWEETNEY 16.35
TYSON CHANDLER 16.50

STRENGTH Hustle. Other teams may have more skill than the Bulls, but nobody plays harder. Scott Skiles’s scrappy group somehow eked out 47 wins a year ago despite a miserable 2-13 start and a popgun offense. The Bulls’ energetic style helped them lead the league in field-goal percentage defense, and they’ll need to keep up the intensity this season.

WEAKNESS Offense. The Bulls were one of the league’s weakest offensive teams a year ago and lost one of their best scorers in Eddie Curry. That should put even more pressure on second-year guard Ben Gordon, who burst onto the scene a year ago to win the league’s Sixth Man Award and fuel Chicago’s playoff push. Newly acquired forwards Tim Thomas, Darius Songaila, and Michael Sweetney also must produce.

X-FACTOR Tim Thomas. Knicks fans must be shaking their heads right now – Thomas was an absolute dog last season, which was one of the major reasons New York missed the playoffs. But with starting forward Luol Deng coming back from injury and Chicago having little depth on the wings, Thomas’s outside shooting skill may become an important asset. And since it’s a contract year, he just might deliver.

Predicted Record: 40-42