The extended drama of the long regular season has now given way to the concentrated drama of the playoffs, starting with four short, best-of-five series. The most important thing to remember about these short series is that anything can happen: a premier player just needs to have a fairly common 1-15 slump, and his team goes home. With that in mind, here are Baseball Prospectus’s predictions for the four Division Series matchups. To help rate them, we’ll use a Baseball Prospectus metric called Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), which shows how much better, in runs, a player was over a freely available replacement at his position (like Bubba Crosby).

NATIONAL LEAGUE HOUSTON VS. ATLANTA

Atlanta Braves pitchers should be thrilled to face this lineup, which only scored 693 runs this year, 11th in the NL. Ensberg had a bounce-back year at third, and Berkman returned from an off-season knee injury to be the second most valuable hitter on the team. But this offense is only two deep, as Taveras, Everett, Burke, and Ausmus are just asking to be pinch-hit for in the third inning. Add the pitcher’s spot into the mix and this lineup features five hitters on a nightly basis who don’t get on base, don’t control the strike zone, and don’t hit for power. Burke could easily be benched in favor of Orlando Palmeiro, though Palmeiro would have to hit like Albert Pujols to make any real impact.

Hudson and Smoltz have been penned in as the first two starters to face Houston, but the third slot (possibly all you need in a best-of-five short series) is still TBA; it should be Jorge Sosa based purely on performance, but the Astros did struggle against lefties this year (hitting just .249 AVG/.322 OBA/.391 SLG), and the pedestrian Horacio Ramirez, who last pitched September 26, could get the call for that reason alone. Hudson finished his first year with the Braves with a slightly suboptimal strikeout rate, which shouldn’t be a handicap against a Houston lineup that doesn’t work the count at all. Smoltz’s Game 2 start sets up a duel-for-the-ages with Roger Clemens.

Though it may have been a young team that got them here, the veterans get to play in the postseason. Andruw Jones had a strong and well-publicized season, and Furcal and Giles form a potent up-the-middle tandem at the top of the order. Chipper Jones wasn’t his usual dominant self, but still managed the team’s fourth-highest VORP despite missing time with injuries. Rookie of the Year candidate Francoeur faded down the stretch, and his impatience at the plate has started to cost him, but he still remains the best option in right field for Atlanta both offensively and defensively.

While Braves pitchers might be excited about facing the Astros hitters, Braves hitters probably don’t share that enthusiasm about facing the Astros’ rotation. Houston allowed just 609 runs this season, by far the fewest in the majors. Subtract the mediocre fifth starters and emergency bullpen arms from that total, and this staff all but ensures that Houston will remain in games even if the offense only scrapes together three runs. Pettitte, Clemens, and Oswalt ranked first, third, and seventh in the majors in VORP this year; as strange as this sounds, the Braves may stand the best chance of scoring against the Astros’ starters, as the short-relief trio of Brad Lidge, Chad Qualls, and Dan Wheeler can shorten games for a rotation that doesn’t make many mistakes.

Prediction: Braves in Five

SAN DIEGO VS. ST. LOUIS

The Padres were the best of an uninspiring NL West, finishing just 82-80 after being outscored 725-681 on the year. Giles is clearly the standout offensive player here; he’ll need to be his usual self for them to have a shot, and he figures to have a lot of at-bats against the Cardinal’s lefty specialist Ray King in this series. Giles is as close to a sure thing as the Padres have, with the recently injured Ramon Hernandez a distant second. Randa accumulated 27.7 of his VORP while playing in hitter-friendly Cincinnati, but he’s been pretty awful since arriving in San Diego. Dave Roberts’s health will be a big concern, as he’s been out since September 24 with leg problems. When healthy, he offers top-of-the-order speed and on-base skills, with great defense in center. The Padres don’t really have an appealing backup plan should Roberts not be ready.

The Cardinals have the luxury of too many starters for a short series, and so they won’t be pressured to bring their best starter back on short rest for Games 4 or 5. Game 1 starter Chris Carpenter saw a notable fade in September, as he lost both velocity and effectiveness. It will help that the back-end of St. Louis’s rotation will pitch Games 3 and 4 in homer-unfriendly Petco Park, as Morris, Suppan, and Marquis all allowed high home run totals this year.

Even without Scott Rolen for much of the year, this offense still scored 804 runs, goog for third in the league. Pujols put up another MVP-caliber season and Edmonds was the third most valuable centerfielder in baseball behind Andruw Jones and Ken Griffey. Walker and Sanders battled injuries and should they miss time in the playoffs, John Rodriguez (11.4 VORP) and So Taguchi (16.3 VORP) will be capable fill-ins. Molina is on board for his defense, and isn’t likely to be a factor at the plate; even with his name penciled in every night, this is the best offense in the NL playoffs, and should prove too much for the Padres to handle.

The Cardinals’ lineup faces a Padres rotation light on dominance and heavy on question marks. Peavy and his 2.88 ERA missed a September start due to shoulder trouble, but he’ll be well-rested for the series opener. If he’s not, the Padres can’t compensate with adequate starting pitching. Astacio is a retread starter with a high walk rate and low strikeout rate, not exactly a good combination against this potent – and patient – St. Louis squad.

The back-end of the Padres’ rotation figures to be one of Lawrence, Eaton, or Woody Williams, all with below-average strikeout rates, and they’ll be pitching to a St. Louis team that doesn’t strike out much (just 941 this year, fourth-fewest in the NL). The Padres are armed with a few dominant middle-relievers, though, so if they can give a lead to Scott Linebrink, Rudy Seanez, Akinori Otsuka, and Trevor Hoffman, they’ll have a chance. This pitching staff as a whole has to have a good series, because the Padres aren’t going to outslug the Cardinals.

Prediction: Cardinals in Four

AMERICAN LEAGUE YANKEES VS. LOS ANGELES

This is shaping up to be a clash of the titans. The Yankees boast the second best offense in baseball, while the Angels have a rotation with an outstanding blend of quality and depth.

The Yankees lineup is by no means the league’s most balanced, but it clubs the opposition with the murderer’s row running from Jeter through Posada, grinding down opposing starters with long at-bats to generate walks and put runners in scoring position. Cano salvaged his season with a hot September, hitting .384 and slugging .634 to fend off a challenge from Red Sox refugee Mark Bellhorn, and gives the bottom of the order some pop. Matt Lawton’s the best bat on the bench, but Joe Torre will continue to favor Ruben Sierra for good deeds done years ago.

The Angels’ Bartolo Colon is no longer the flamethrower he once was, but the Angels’ front three are all power pitchers, and Byrd is far from a junkballer. The Yankees may have particular trouble with Washburn, especially if they continue to put Sierra in the lineup against lefties. Any lead that the Angels generate after the sixth or so will be turned over to a deep and talented pen fronted by Francisco Rodriguez and his insane curveball, and bolstered by the return of former ace reliever Kelvim Escobar from the disabled list.

The Angels have serious problems in their lineup, not least of which is the status of Garret Anderson and whether his bad back will allow him to play the field. It isn’t Mike Scioscia’s style to bench experienced veterans like Erstad or Finley, so there will be weaknesses for the Yankees pitchers to exploit.

The Angels are one of the most aggressive ballclubs in baseball, stealing a major league-leading 161 bases, and the Yankees are not especially good at deterring or containing the running game. Scioscia should be expected to rely on team speed around the bases, line-drive power, and the hope that Vlad Guerrero lights up the scoreboard at some point.

The Yankees are at a disadvantage as far as pitching, but that’s been the case since June or July, and they’re still here. While Torre could try to push Johnson up to pitching on three days’ rest to start Games 2 and 5, and Mussina to make a Game 4 start, even that would still leave them outclassed in trying to contend with the Angels’ rotation. Torre will most likely roll the dice with Aaron Small in Game 4, hoping that his 10-0 record isn’t merely a historical anecdote.

Torre can’t afford to let any game’s outcome rely on anyone besides Mariano Rivera and Tom Gordon after the sixth inning. Yankees fans will have to hope he realizes that there’s no point in reserving Rivera for save situations on the road, and instead thinks in terms of turning to Gordon in the seventh and Rivera in the eighth with a narrow lead.

Prediction: Angels in Five

BOSTON VS. CHICAGO

What the Yankees may boast in strength, the Red Sox can match with consistent quality throughout the lineup. Boston keeps it simple, never really getting overly cute with in-game tactics. For all of the appropriate talk about their willingness to walk, this isn’t a passive lineup, and all of the Sox hitters do a good job of getting their pitch and driving it.

You can expect to see Kevin Millar coming off of the bench, particularly to face lefties, and spot for Olerud at first or Nixon in right. Boston didn’t see Freddy Garcia all season, but against the other three starters in the series, the Sox hammered out 46 hits and drew 10 walks in 30.2 innings.

What can Chicago do to keep the bloodletting to a minimum? They do boast a tight infield defense, an outfield with two men who can play center, and the AL’s best starting foursome. Unfortunately, manager Ozzie Guillen has reshuffled his rotation to lead off with his fourth-best starter. Contreras has been particularly effective against lefties with his splitter this season, and the Red Sox lineup will feature at least six men hitting lefty. Still, it’s an odd choice – Contreras has an 11.67 ERA in six career starts against the Red Sox.

If Boston breaks out and forces Guillen to go to his bullpen earlier than he’d like, it will negate Chicago’s advantage in relief pitching.

Already a merely average offensive ball club, the White Sox are even weaker against right-handed pitching, which may completely derail their playoff hopes. As a team, they hit .259 AVG/.318 OBA/.418 SLG against righthanders – and that’s against everyone, from the Royals on up.

Chicago’s lineup has been lauded for its “small ball” approach, but that won’t save them this time. Guillen will run with Podsednik and Iguchi, and try to manufacture some scoring from the bottom of the order, but basically, this lineup lives and dies on whether Dye and Konerko can launch pitches into the short porch in left field.

Unfortunately, in a tight game, Guillen might have no choice but to pinch-run with Timo Perez or Willie Harris for a big bat; as scarce as runs get with the White Sox lineup, he’ll be tempted to do everything he can to squeeze another run out of his hitters.

A lot of attention is being needlessly focused on Schilling on the off chance that he finally begins to resemble the pitcher who gritted out a tremendous October last year. Happily for the Fenway faithful, he won’t have to be, at least not in this round. Even if Boston lacks a true ace, manager Terry Francona can always change gears quickly by bringing in Bronson Arroyo for long relief.

Prediction: Red Sox in Four