After three straight years of seeing the Detroit Pistons in the conference finals, and two straight of seeing them face the Miami Heat, the East could be up for a changing of the guard this year. The Pistons’ defensive ace, Ben Wallace, left Detroit to sign with the Bulls as a free agent, while the world champion Heat face age and injury questions in addition to the usual championship hangover. While those two should stay in the hunt, two other Eastern teams are quickly rising: Chicago and Cleveland. The Bulls took another big step forward by poaching Wallace in the off-season, and thanks to the generosity of Isiah Thomas they also snagged high-flying forward Tyrus Thomas in the draft. The Cavs, on the other hand, hardly needed to do anything — they’ll just watch LeBron James take another step forward on his road to world domination and ride the tide to the top of the Eastern Conference. A few other Eastern clubs loom as dark horses if everything goes right, most notably Orlando and Indiana. But beyond the few legitimate contenders, the East is its usual sad-sack self — don’t be surprised if only three or four teams win 45 or more games. Included in the fray of 35-to-45 win teams should be both local teams, although the Nets figure to remain the area’s superior club. For each team, I’ve included the starting five and their Player Efficiency Ratings for last season. PER is a statistical tool I invented that measures each player’s performance, with the league average set at 15.0. Mr. Hollinger will preview the Western Conference tomorrow.

ATLANTIC DIVISION

BOSTON CELTICS

STRENGTH: Young talent. The Celtics could be a juggernaut in a couple of years. Young point guards Sebastian Telfair and Rajan Rondo are two of the slickest penetrators in the league, big men Al Jefferson and Kendrick Perkins form a potentially fearsome frontcourt, while Delonte West, Tony Allen, and Ryan Gomes all can play too.

WEAKNESS: Defense. Boston’s kids remain wet behind the ears, a fact that’s more apparent as D. Allen and possibly Rondo (the league’s best rookie in preseason) are the only good defenders of the bunch, though Perkins’s brute strength could make him excellent before long. The lack of a wing stopper is particularly notable, as is the lack of depth behind Perkins and Jefferson up front.

X-FACTOR: Al Jefferson. Call him the Boston version of Eddy Curry — a potentially awesome post threat who last year was plagued by a combination of foul trouble, injuries, and poor conditioning. The Celtics need Jefferson to become the post threat that complements the outside game of Paul Pierce and Wally Szczerbiak.

Predicted Record: 42–40

NEW JERSEY NETS

STRENGTH: Star power. There’s no question that New Jersey has the best perimeter trio in basketball. Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, and Richard Jefferson all are All-Star caliber talents whose presences alone make the Nets annual contenders to win the Atlantic. Kidd is getting up there at 33 and Carter is entering a free-agent year, but other teams would kill for such worries.

WEAKNESS: Depth. Sadly, the Nets have very little to complement their Big Three. Nenad Krstic is decent but hardly special, while Jason Collins has had knee troubles. The bench is a total mess, with free-agent pickup Eddie House sidelined by a knee injury and 39-year-old Clifford Robinson the top frontcourt reserve.

X-FACTOR: Antoine Wright. With House out and no other competent wing reserves in sight, it’s sink-or-swim time for the Nets’ first-round pick from a year ago. He was dreadful as a rookie but looked much more confident offensively during the preseason, raising hopes that he can provide a serviceable 20 minutes a night off the pine while Jefferson and Carter get their rest.

Predicted Record: 41–41

NEW YORK KNICKS

STRENGTH: Frontcourt scoring. The skills of Eddy Curry and Channing Frye naturally complement each oth er, and each can fill it up. Curry is a beast in the post whose scoring average would be much more impressive if he could avoid fouls, while Frye’s deadly mid-range shooting clears the lane for his teammate. Frye is one of this year’s most obvious breakout candidates.

WEAKNESS: Defense. Curry and Frye make great complements on offense, but on defense they might be the league’s most vulnerable frontcourt. Frye lacks strength and is a speed bump for bulky forwards, while Curry’s poor conditioning and wandering concentration provide little deterrent to opposing drivers. Neither is much of a rebounder, and the Knicks’ offense-minded perimeter players won’t make up for their deficiencies.

X-FACTOR: Steve Francis. If the Stephon Marbury-Steve Francis backcourt combo is going to work, Francis is the one who has to adjust. Playing off the ball for the first time in his career, he has to figure out how to get shots without running 20 seconds off the shot clock and use his quickness to score against bigger defenders. It would help if the Knicks ran more, as Isiah Thomas would prefer, but neither of these two likes to push it.

Predicted Record: 36–46

TORONTO RAPTORS

STRENGTH: Frontcourt shooting. Few teams have big men that shoot better than Toronto’s. Leading the way is Chris Bosh, a poor man’s Kevin Garnett who made his first All-Star team a year ago, but he has plenty of company on Toronto’s United Nations of a roster. No. 1 overall pick Andrea Bargnani of Italy is a deadeye 7-footer, while Spanish import Jorge Garbajosa and Slovenian newcomer Uros Slokar also have 3-point range.

WEAKNESS: Backcourt scoring. The Raptors were one of the league’s top offensive teams last year, but the departures of shooting guard Mike James and forward Charlie Villanueva will make a dent.T.J. Ford, acquired in the Villanueva trade, will run the point as the Raptors try to up the tempo, while “re-import”Anthony Parker — an American who played in Israel last year — takes over at off guard.

X-FACTOR: Rasho Nesterovic. Toronto was the league’s second-worst defensive team last season according to my Defensive Efficiency metric (which measures a team’s points allowed per 100 possessions), with lack of size the biggest reason. Toronto acquired the 7-footer from San Antonio hoping that he could enforce the law in the middle.

Predicted Record: 31–51

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

STRENGTH: That little guy with all the tattoos. Allen Iverson was brilliant a year ago, playing even better than he did during his MVP campaign in 2000–01. The Answer singlehandedly kept the team afloat in what was otherwise a miserable season, but he will have to shake off a summer of trade rumors to do the same this season.

WEAKNESS: Everything else. Last year everyone stayed healthy, Chris Webber and Iverson played as well as could possibly have been expected, and the Sixers went 38–44. So what happens if the paper-thin Sixers have an injury, or Iverson starts showing his age, or Webber’s knees finally disintegrate completely? Philly made no major off-season moves, so this could get ugly.

X-FACTOR: Andre Iguodala. The Sixers badly need a third player to establish himself as a key performer and help out Iverson and Webber. Sam Dalembert, Kyle Korver, and Willie Green aren’t the answer — despite the Sixers wasting a pile of money on that trio — but Iguodala might be. He’s one of the league’s best athletes and has a developing 3-point stroke, but has yet to put the whole package together.

Predicted Record: 25–57

SOUTHEAST DIVISION

MIAMI HEAT

STRENGTH: Star power. The twoman tag-team of Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O’Neal can overcome a lot of weaknesses, especially when Wade can get to the basket at will and get a foul or basket. While Wade is clearly the more important of the two, having a behemoth 7-footer never hurts. Shaq still demands doubleteams against most centers and paves the way to easier shots for his teammates.

WEAKNESS: Point guard. Heat coach Pat Riley opted to “Stand Pat” after winning the title, but that just made an old team a year older. Point guard Jason Williams won’t be ready for the start of the season and his backup, Gary Payton, looked like he was running on fumes by the end of last season. Don’t be surprised if Pat Riley goes hunting for help at this spot as the trade deadline draws near.

X-FACTOR: Alonzo Mourning. The unsung hero of the Heat’s surprise title was Mourning, who had what was far and away the league’s best shot-block rate and, per minute, was the league’s most effective reserve according to my Player Efficiency Rating (PER) stat. But he’s 36 and has already had a kidney transplant — how much more does he have left in the tank?

Predicted Record: 53–29

ORLANDO MAGIC

STRENGTH: Young talent. There’s no question that this is one of the league’s up-and-coming teams. Manchild Dwight Howard is one of the game’s premier young talents, while point guard Jameer Nelson is an underrated force as a scorer. Throw in trade-deadline pickup Darko Milicic — who isn’t a bust, as it turns out (PER) — and complementary players like Hedo Turkoglu and Carlos Arroyo, and Orlando is on the rise.

WEAKNESS: Frontcourt depth. Milicic and Howard better plan on staying healthy and out of foul trouble, because they won’t have much help. Veteran holdover Tony Battie was barely adequate a year ago and doesn’t figure to get better with age, while warhorses Pat Garrity and Bo Outlaw are long past their sell-by dates. In fact, the best backup frontcourt option might be the 6-foot-10 Turkoglu.

X-FACTOR: Grant Hill. Obviously, Orlando no longer enters seasons expecting Hill to stay healthy. But if he can somehow defy the odds and keep himself in one piece, the silky small forward changes Orlando’s outlook from playoffhopeful to a real dark-horse threat. A lineup of Nelson, Hill, Turkoglu, Howard, and Milicic would be virtually unguardable, and in this conference, it’s not hard to move up in the world.

Predicted Record: 42–40

WASHINGTON WIZARDS

STRENGTH: Scorers. Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antawn Jamison were the league’s highestscoring trio a year ago, and the only Wizards to score in double figures. They’ll once again be asked to shoulder a heavy load in one of the league’s better offenses, as Washington made few off-season changes. They’ll need health, too — the trio missed a total of just nine games last year, helping mask the club’s other deficiencies.

WEAKNESS: Defense. The Wizards weren’t a strong defensive club a year ago, as none of their three key scorers was much of a defensive player and their big men gave erratic performances. Additionally, their top defender a year ago was Jared Jeffries, who is now a Knick. Washington’s big off-season pickup was forward Darius Songaila — another soft defender, and an injured one at that.

X-FACTOR: Jarvis Hayes. A first-round pick three years ago, Hayes has faded from memory after knee injuries and inconsistent shooting ruined his past two seasons. Now he’s back and healthy, and his jumper has looked more consistent in the preseason. He’s always been a decent defender, so if he can stay healthy and provide a scoring threat he’ll greatly improve an area that looms as a potential weakness.

Predicted Record: 37–45

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS

STRENGTH: Quickness. Talk about ‘Cat-quick — Charlotte led the NBA in steals and forced turnovers by a wide margin last season, with swingman Gerald Wallace leading the league in steals and guard Brevin Knight not far behind. The backcourt combination of Knight and second-year guard Raymond Felton can penetrate the lane at will to set up shots and combine with Wallace to terrorize teams in transition.

WEAKNESS: Shooting Guard. The reason Charlotte will play Knight and Felton together, even though both are natural point guard is because the Bobcats don’t have a true shooting guard besides reserve Matt Carroll. Wallace will also play heavy minutes at that spot, but Charlotte may target a more conventional solution at the position at the trade deadline, with Knight’s expiring contract being the bait.

X-FACTOR: Adam Morrison. The Bobcats have amassed enough talent to have an outside shot at a playoff berth, especially if the no. 3 overall pick can provide a scoring spark off the bench. The Bobcats were a weak offensive team a year ago, but with the return of Emeka Okafor and Sean May from injury and the development of Felton, they could be much better. However, they need a go-to scorer and Morrison is an obvious candidate.

Predicted Record: 36–46

ATLANTA HAWKS

STRENGTH: Athleticism. Nearly every opponent comments on the difficulties the Hawks’ gang of long-armed, wiry bodies present. With athletic wings like Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, Josh Childress, and Marvin Williams, the Hawks can do a lot of damage in the passing lanes and in transition. That’s especially true with the addition of point guard Speedy Claxton, who should help push the pace.

WEAKNESS: Frontcourt. Atlanta helped itself by adding veteran center Lorenzen Wright and rookie forward Shelden Williams, but the Hawks still will get pushed around in the paint on a nightly basis. Center Zaza Pachulia is a poor defender and will get little help from his youthful teammates, especially since Al Harrington left in the off-season.

X-FACTOR: Josh Smith. Smith awes with his talent one minute, then commits horrifying mental mistakes the next. But he came on like gangbusters over the final two months a year ago, and there’s little doubting his immense talent. The 6-foot-9 forward is a great leaper and an underrated passer, but it’s his development of a 3-point stroke that really has the Hawks excited.

Predicted Record: 21–61

CENTRAL DIVISION

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS

STRENGTH: Frontcourt. Yeah, they have some guy named LeBron too, but the Cavs’ frontcourt is a formidable group that often gets overlooked. Zydrunas Ilgauskas is a deadly post threat who can shoot and block shots, while Drew Gooden rebounds like crazy and gets tons of garbage baskets. Off the pine, Anderson Varejao is one of the league’s top energizers, Donyell Marshall can shoot the lights out, and Scot Pollard is a quality enforcer.

WEAKNESS: Shooting. With a talent like James, the Cavs would benefit from having players who can space the floor and knock down all the open looks he creates. It’s hoped that firstround pick Shannon Brown, newcomer David Wesley, and a recovered Jones can combine to rectify the problem.

X-FACTOR: Larry Hughes. Hughes’s first year as a Cav couldn’t have been worse, as he struggled to mesh with LeBron and then missed 46 games with an injury, continuing an injuryprone pattern. The good news is that the Cavs won 50 games even with that setback, and Hughes is capable of playing far better. If he can stay in one piece and play as he did when a Wizard, the Cavs will own the East.

Predicted Record: 56–26

CHICAGO BULLS

STRENGTH: Defense. The Bulls were a great defensive team even before they got Ben Wallace, finishing sixth in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency last season thanks to their gritty playing style. Throw in the league’s top defensive player and a second fearsome shot-blocker in the rookie Thomas, and the Bulls figure to rival San Antonio as the league’s best defensive team.

WEAKNESS: Post offense. Wallace will improve the defense, but not the offense — he’s a non-scorer who gets his points in transition and on the boards. The Bulls’ only post-up threat is ex-Knick Michael Sweetney, but he weighs more than the Sears Tower and may not play much this year. Thus, once again it will be up to guards Ben Gordon and Kirk Hinrich to create the bulk of the Bulls’ offense.

X-FACTOR: Luol Deng. Deng may not be a starter to begin the year — he’s locked in a battle with incumbent Andres Nocioni — but the third-year forward is the one player who could give a big offensive boost with his developing game. Deng has all the skills, but needs to hone his instincts as a scorer and make his game less predictable. If he does that, he may force Scott Skiles to play him and Nocioni side by side.

Predicted Record: 49–33

DETROIT PISTONS

STRENGTH: Guard play. Ben Wallace may be gone, but the “Palace Guards” remain. Chauncey Billups and Richard Hamilton both made their first All-Star team a year ago, and the team’s two leading scorers will have to fill it up even more this year to make up for the expected defensive decline in Wallace’s absence. Don’t be surprised if they play small and push the pace more.

WEAKNESS: Center. Detroit replaced Wallace with Nazr Mohammed, a jarring downgrade any way you look at it. Combined that with some other negative indicators for Detroit — they can’t possibly stay as healthy as they did a year ago, Billups may not match his career year of last season, and it’s still not clear if the players are in coach Flip Saunders’s corner — and they could be in for a quite a fall from last year’s 64-win season.

X-FACTOR: Carlos Delfino. In his third season as a pro, it’s time for the Argentinean wingman to step up. He struggled with his shooting in his first two seasons, but the Pistons traded Maurice Evans to clear playing time for him, and he could see a lot of time in smallball lineups now that Wallace is gone. But it won’t work out unless Delfino starts knocking down all the jumpers that rimmed out in his first two seasons.

Predicted Record: 44–38

INDIANA PACERS

STRENGTH: Depth. The Pacers have survived all manner of injuries, floods, and pestilence the past two seasons because they’re so incredibly deep, and that will be their foundation again this season. Indiana goes at least two deep with quality at every position, which should allow them to shrug off any of the injuries, suspensions, and imprisonments that might come their way this year.

WEAKNESS: Frailty. Of the Pacers five projected starters, three — Jamaal Tinsley, Jeff Foster and Jermaine O’Neal — have terrible track records of staying healthy. A fourth, Stephen Jackson, was involved in an altercation earlier this month that could land him behind bars and/or earn him a league-mandated suspension. Forwards Al Harrington and Danny Granger are the only key players who have stayed healthy.

X-FACTOR: Tinsley. Indiana traded Anthony Johnson to Dallas — the same Anthony Johnson who was killing the Nets in the playoffs — partly because they wanted to give Tinsley the job and play more uptempo. That’s a big risk in three ways — Tinsley was brutal last year, he hasn’t finished a season healthy in eons, and until now the team had played at a snail’s pace under Rick Carlisle.

Predicted Record: 42–40

MILWAUKEE BUCKS

STRENGTH: Shooting. Few teams can match the Bucks’ prowess from longrange. Southpaw Michael Redd is one of the best shooters in basketball, while the trades of T.J. Ford for Charlie Villanueva and Jamaal Magloire for Steve Blake removed the two worst shooters on last year’s club and replaced them with solid marksmen. Maurice Williams, Bobby Simmons, and Charlie Bell all are solid perimeter threats too.

WEAKNESS: Defense. Milwaukee didn’t defend well a year ago, and by effectively replacing Magloire with Villaneuva they aren’t likely to get any better this year. The Bucks will moveAndrew Bogut to center and hope he can muscle with the Shaqs and Yaos of the world.

X-FACTOR: Villanueva The trade of Ford for Villaneuva is a hilarious rip-off in the long-term, but for the Bucks to get back to the playoffs Charlie V. needs to deliver this year. That means improving his shaky defense and concentration, something he struggled with in the preseason. Offensively, he’s potentially an ideal complement to Redd, but he must diversify his game and not settle for long jumpers.

Predicted Record: 40–42