2006-07 NBA Preview: Western Conference
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The Miami Heat may have won the title, but the Western Conference has been the league’s dominant half ever since Michael Jordan hung up his sneaks. That should be the case again this year, as three Western clubs—Dallas, San Antonio and Phoenix — look to be superior to any rival in the East.
The defending conference champ Mavs brought in several veterans to supplement Dirk Nowitzki, and they’ll need them to hold off San Antonio. With a healthy Tim Duncan and a revamped frontcourt around him, the Spurs look like the favorites to win the title heading into opening day. Phoenix could change that picture, however, if Amare Stoudemire can return to full strength by the time the playoffs roll around – the Suns made the conference finals a year ago even without him.
There’s a big gap between those three and the others, with Denver and Houston forming the best of the rest. Each has enough talent on paper to challenge the West’s elite, but both clubs have injury question marks (Tracy McGrady, Marcus Camby) and at least one glaring weakness to solve between now and the postseason. The two L.A. teams and a resurgent Utah club should round out the conference’s playoff contingent.
For each team, I’ve included the starting five and their Player Efficiency Ratings for last season. PER is a statistical tool I invented that measures each player’s performance, with the league average set at 15.0.
NORTHWEST DIVISION
DENVER NUGGETS
STRENGTH: Transition offense. The Nuggets have their share of flaws, but one thing pretty much every Nugget can do is run the floor. Point guard Andre Miller is adept at pushing the pace and a master of the alleyoop, while the frontcourt of Kenyon Martin and Marcus Camby can outrun nearly everyone. This makes the Nuggets a huge headache in the open court, especially in Denver’s mile-high air.
WEAKNESS: Shooting. The Nuggets have to run, however, because they’re so shaky in the halfcourt. Denver was last in the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage and did absolutely nothing to remedy the problem in the off-season. Guards Miller and Earl Boykins both struggle from the outside, leaving newly acquired J.R. Smith as the only hope for a consistent perimeter threat — a weakness that lets opponents double-team Carmelo Anthony with impunity.
X-FACTOR: Kenyon Martin. Martin struggled in his comeback from microfracture knee surgery last season, feuded with coach George Karl, and basically quit on the team in the middle of a playoff game. Amazingly, he’s still here, although one wonders if it’s to showcase him for a trade for a shooter. Fans will be closely monitoring he gets along with Karl and copes with the knee.
Predicted Record: 45-37
UTAH JAZZ
STRENGTH: Frontcourt. Utah’s frontcourt is so much better than its backcourt that by the end of last season, coach Jerry Sloan threw up his hands and started four forwards — Matt Harpring, Andrei Kirilenko, Carlos Boozer, and Mehmet Okur. He may not break out that lineup to start the year, but that quartet comprises four of Utah’s five best players — provided Boozer is healthy and motivated.
WEAKNESS: Shooting guard. Utah got a complete zero from this spot a year ago. The hope is that newly acquired Derek Fisher and rookie Ronnie Brewer can fill the gap, but that remains to be seen. Fisher is a natural point guard and injured his hip in preseason, while Brewer doesn’t have the shooting touch that seems to be the team’s most glaring need.
X-FACTOR: Deron Williams. Williams looked like a bust in the first half of last season, even losing his job to ne’er-do-well Keith McLeod at one point, but he came on like gangbusters after the All-Star break. Williams caught fire from beyond the 3-point line and grew much more comfortable running NBA offenses. The question is where he goes from here — was the hot shooting a fluke or is he a rising star?
Predicted Record: 42–40
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
STRENGTH: Backcourt depth. Say this for the T’wolves — they can withstand plenty of injuries to the backcourt. Free agent Mike James and rookie Randy Foye round off a rotation that already includes Marko Jaric, Troy Hudson, Trenton Hassell, Ricky Davis, and Bracey Wright, not to mention the injured Rashad McCants. Look for Davis to join James and Foye as starters, with versatile Jaric and defensive ace Hassell the primary reserves.
WEAKNESS: Center. It’s not just that Mark Blount is the opening day center … it’s that he’s vastly better than any of the alternatives. With talentless Mark Madsen and head cases Eddie Griffin and Vin Baker as the only alternatives, the T’wolves are forced to pray that the one night a week Blount feels like playing hard falls on a game day.
X-FACTOR: Randy Foye. I wasn’t high on the first-round pick from Villanova coming out of college, but the reviews thus far have been glowing. Foye dominated in summer league and scouts are fond of his defensive skills and in-between game. If he can score in the mid-teens and make a run for Rookie of the Year, then Kevin Garnett might have enough support for Minnesota to squeeze into the playoffs.
Predicted Record: 36–46
SEATTLE SUPERSONICS
STRENGTH: Shooting. The Sonics struggled last year, but don’t blame the offense. Seattle still filled it up with its odd combination of slow pace, offensive rebounding, and 3-point shooting. Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis are the keys, drilling every open jumper while creating mismatches that lead to clean looks for their teammates, while high-flying forward Chris Wilcox added an extra gear when he arrived at the trade deadline.
WEAKNESS: Defense. The Sonics were one of the worst defenses in history last year, if not the worst. Based on my Defensive Efficiency rating, they were worse relative to the league than any team in the three-plus decades since the league began tracking turnovers. With little roster turnover and the same coaching staff, it’s hard to see the Sonics improving much on that result this season.
X-FACTOR: Robert Swift. If the Sonics are going to put up any kind of a fight defensively, one of their three young centers — Robert Swift, Johan Petro, or rookie Mohammed Saer Sene — is going to have to make a breakthrough. The most likely candidate is Swift, who seems to have the most defensive awareness of the three. However, he hurt his knee in the final preseason game and could be out for a while.
Predicted Record: 34–48
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
STRENGTH: The city. Vibrant neighborhoods, delectable seafood, great coffee, mountains, rivers, parks, microbrews … Portland has it all, as long as you can stand the rain. As for the basketball team, well, not so much. The Blazers were the league’s worst team a year ago and don’t appear much better this time around.
WEAKNESS: Darn near everything. Let’s put it this way: Of Portland’s five likely starters, only Zach Randolph would start for a majority of the league’s teams. Jarrett Jack will be thrown into the fire as the opening day point guard, with rookie Brandon Roy playing next to him, while ex-Knick Ime Udoka (if you can remember the eight games he played for New York) might get the openingday nod at small forward if Darius Miles isn’t ready.
X-FACTOR: Miles and Randolph. If the Blazers are going to make even the slightest push toward respectability, it starts with these two louts actually giving a hoot. So far, so bad. Miles showed up overweight and his knee problems appear worse than ever, while it surprised absolutely nobody when Randolph was late for the team’s first preseason game.
Predicted Record: 20–62
SOUTHWEST DIVISION
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
STRENGTH: Defense. The Spurs have been the league’s top team in Defensive Efficiency (my measure of points allowed per 100 possessions) in five of the past six seasons, and they should be near the top once again. Tim Duncan is the centerpiece, with his ability to alter shots and control the boards, while Bruce Bowen is among the game’s top perimeter stoppers and coach Gregg Popovich perhaps the best motivator.
WEAKNESS: Age. If there’s one thing that might derail this team’s title hopes, it’s that they’re getting long in the tooth. Duncan is 30 and had his worst season as a pro last year, while Manu Ginobili is an old 29 thanks to the beating he’s taken. Several other vets — Bowen, Brent Barry, Michael Finley, and Robert Horry — also are well past their prime and could begin declining rapidly.
X-FACTOR: Jackie Butler. The Spurs let Nazr Mohammed leave as a free agent and will fill the spot with a committee that includes Butler, Francisco Elson, Fabricio Oberto and Matt Bonner. Of the four, Butler is easily the most talented. The ex-Knick can score with ease and has the requisite size, but needs to learn Popovich’s defensive system before he gets a shot at major minutes.
Predicted Record: 62–20
DALLAS MAVERICKS
STRENGTH: One-on-one play. You don’t think of Dirk Nowitzki breaking down guys off the dribble, but actually the Mavs go one-on-one more than any team in the league. Even Nowitzki does it, backing down his man at the foul line and either drawing fouls or shooting over him. Meanwhile, Jason Terry, Devin Harris, Josh Howard, Jerry Stackhouse, Anthony Johnson, and Austin Croshere all are more comfortable finding their own shot than one for a teammate.
WEAKNESS: Center. Dallas was more respectable in the middle last year thanks to the development of DeSagana Diop, but if the Mavs want to win the title they still need to get better. The strong preseason from Erick Dampier provides some hope that things will improve, but it’s hard to imagine him keeping up the effort level for another eight months.
X-FACTOR: Devin Harris. Harris turned the Mavs’ secondround series against San Antonio completely upside-down with his mad dashes to the hoop, using his jets to blow past bigger defenders and relegate San Antonio’s big men to the sidelines. However, he was all but useless in the Finals against Miami. With another year of experience, the hope is Harris can harness his considerable talents and form a blazing fast smallball backcourt with Terry.
Predicted Record: 60–22
HOUSTON ROCKETS
STRENGTH: Defense. T-Mac and Yao get the headlines, but the foundation of any Jeff Van Gundy team is stopping the opponent. Even last year, when the team was riddled with injuries, Houston ranked seventh overall in Defensive Efficiency. They should only improve with a healthy cast, especially since the off-season haul included one of the game’s best defenders in forward Shane Battier.
WEAKNESS: Point guard. The Rockets were seriously bummed to lose out on the bidding for free-agent guard Mike James, whom they foolishly traded to Toronto a year earlier for Rafer Alston. Alston was a bust but probably will end up starting because the Rockets have few other palatable options. Greek import Vasilis Spanoulis is the other alternative, but he’ll need half the year to learn the American game.
X-FACTOR: Bonzi Wells. The erratic wingman is perhaps the best rebounding guard in basketball and had a very strong campaign in Sacramento last season. However, he’s worn out his welcome in both Portland and Memphis, and his shot-happy, postup playing style may not mesh well with the games of Yao and McGrady. The preseason offered few answers, as Well missed most of it with injuries and an undisclosed personal problem.
Predicted Record: 51–31
NEW ORLEANS/ OKLAHOMA CITY HORNETS
STRENGTH: Speed. Few teams are as formidable in transition, led by the astounding skills of point guard Chris Paul. He ran away with the Rookie of the Year award and should be a perennial All-Star with his consummate skills at the point. Running mates Desmond Mason, David West, and Tyson Chandler all can beat opponents upcourt and finish on the break, while free-agent import Peja Stojakovic has always been underrated in transition.
WEAKNESS: Wing depth. While adding Stojakovic helps, the Hornets spent their off-season giving away guards. The trades of J.R. Smith and Kirk Snyder leave them with only Mason and journeyman Rasual Butler to join Peja on the wings, which isn’t a good plan for making it through an 82-game season. Another free agent, Bobby Jackson, is the backup at the point but could see time at shooting guard if he can stay off the injured list.
X-FACTOR: Chandler. The Hornets struggled to defend the paint a year ago, but picked up three defense-oriented big men in the off-season in Chandler and draft picks Hilton Armstrong and Cedric Simmons. The rookies may be a year or two away, but Chandler can make an immediate impact with his length, energy, and rebounding … provided he plays with the passion he showed two years ago and not the wavering effort of last season.
Predicted Record: 40–42
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
STRENGTH: Shooting. Memphis was an outstanding 3-point shooting team a year ago and should match that effort again this year. Sixth Man award winner Mike Miller has one of the sweetest strokes in the game, while veterans Eddie Jones, Chucky Atkins, Brian Cardinal, and Damon Stoudamire also are lethal from downtown. Throw in some rainbows from rookie forward Rudy Gay, and it’s quite a cast.
WEAKNESS: Frontcourt. A broken bone in his foot will keep star forward Pau Gasol out for nearly half the season, and it exposes the Grizzlies’ near-total lack of quality in the frontcourt around their All-Star. Lumbering giant Jake Tsakalidis looms as the opening-day center, with talented enigma Stromile Swift the likely starter at power forward. Cardinal and secondyear pro Hakim Warrick have shown little as Grizzlies but will need to play major minutes.
X-FACTOR: Rudy Gay. The Grizzlies traded Shane Battier to Houston for Gay and Stromile Swift, unloading their most dependable and defensive-minded player in a bid to cash in on Gay’s alluring potential. The 6-foot-9-inch forward is a tremendous athlete with a high-arcing jumper, but many scouts question whether he has the drive to become a star because he disappeared so often as a collegian.
Predicted Record: 32–50
PACIFIC DIVISION
PHOENIX SUNS
STRENGTH: Offense. This has been far and away the league’s best offensive team the past two seasons and should be again this year. Steve Nash’s shooting and passing, Shawn Marion’s aerial exploits, and underrated support pieces like Boris Diaw and Leandro Barbosa combine to overwhelm even the best defenses. The return of Amare Stoudemire adds another pot of gold to Phoenix’s embarrassment of offensive riches.
WEAKNESS: Interior Defense. The Suns like to play smallball, but the drawback is that they get bloodied under the boards. This was particularly true after the loss of ex-Knick Kurt Thomas last season. Stoudemire could help, but he was a sieve two years ago and badly needs to improve his fundamentals.
X-FACTOR: Amare Stoudemire. Stoudemire’s return from microfracture knee surgery over a year ago has been one step forward, two steps back. He aborted a comeback after three games last spring and has had trouble even in preseason, performing erratically in limited playing time. Fortunately, it’s almost a foregone conclusion they’ll win the division, so the real question is whether Amare can be 100% by April for a run at the ring.
Predicted Record: 55–27
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
STRENGTH: Shooting. Kobe Bryant has been criticized in the past for his reluctance to share the ball, but his defenders have pointed out his teammates’ inability to convert chances. That shouldn’t be a problem this year. New arrivals Vladimir Radmanovic, Maurice Evans, and Shammond Williams can knock down the outside shot, while big men like Chris Mihm and Lamar Odom are capable finishers inside.
WEAKNESS: Point guard. One reason the Lakers brought Williams back from Europe and drafted Jordan Farmar was the shaky play of Smush Parker at the point a year ago. Though an adequate fill-in, Parker was one of the league’s weakest starters at the position.
X-FACTOR: Health. The Lakers are an early candidate to be this year’s injury-ravaged disappointment. Entering opening day, Bryant is still recovering from knee surgery, Mihm is recuperating from an ankle operation, Kwame Brown and Williams are on the shelf, and even coach Phil Jackson missed all of training camp to get a hip replaced. All should be back soon, but it’s a worrying trend that could cause them to fall far short of my predicted win total.
Predicted Record: 49-33
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
STRENGTH: Defense. Mike Dunleavy has recast the Clippers as a defense-oriented team, and unusually it’s the young guys that have made the most impact. Secondyear wing Quinton Ross is a suffocating perimeter defender, while center Chris Kaman has made huge strides and point guard Shaun Livingston is a stud defender in the making. Throw in savvy vets like Elton Brand and Cuttino Mobley, and the Clips can stymie anybody.
WEAKNESS: Frontcourt depth. The Clips went to the discount bin for frontcourt help behind Kaman and Brand this summer. Free-agent pickup and former Knicks’ disaster Tim Thomas is really a small forward and is likely to mail it in now that he’s been paid.
X-FACTOR: Livingston. It’s high unlikely that geriatric point guard Sam Cassell will come anywhere close to his performance a year ago, both in terms of health and production. Thus, the pressure is on Livingston to fill the void. The fourth overall pick three years ago, he’s a tremendous talent, but he needs to cut down on the turnovers and improve his wayward jumper.
Predicted Record: 41–41
SACRAMENTO KINGS
STRENGTH: Skill players. The Kings might be the league’s least athletic team, but they make up for it with tremendous skill. Sevenfooters aren’t supposed to be able to pass and shoot like center Brad Miller, while point guard Mike Bibby is a deadly shooter either on the move or off the catch. Throw in silky smooth forward Shareef Abdur-Rahim and the unusual matchup problems that Ron Artest presents, and the Kings will score plenty.
WEAKNESS: Frontcourt depth. Not only are the Kings glaringly unathletic up front, they’re also short on bodies. Miller, Abdur-Rahim, and Kenny Thomas are their only three frontcourt players worth a hoot, and Miller is the only plausible center of the three. Knicks’ castoff Maurice Taylor could end up seeing substantial playing time due to the dearth of palatable options.
X-FACTOR: Ron Artest. The other “X-Factors” are listed as such because their teams aren’t sure what to expect from them. Artest is a special case — even Ron doesn’t know what he’ll do from day to day. The NBA season is far too long for Artest to make it through without doing something horribly self-destructive; it’s just a question of how long before the other shoe drops.
Predicted Record: 38–44
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
STRENGTH: Backcourt. Golden State’s backcourt of Baron Davis and Jason Richardson is potentially as good as any in the West, particularly if they play smarter under new coach Don Nelson. Davis’s shot selection was horrid last year, and his tendency to rush contested 3-pointers became contagious as the year wore on. But he’s as talented as any point guard in the league, and Richardson has improved in every pro season.
WEAKNESS: Size. Nelson wants to play small, but the carnage at the defensive end could be catastrophic. Troy Murphy moves to center, but he was a weak defender even as a power forward and has zero ability to protect the rim or push out bigger centers. Scrawny Mike Dunleavy is now the power forward, where he can look forward to repeated abuse on the blocks.
X-FACTOR: Mike Dunleavy. Nelson hopes the move to “point forward” will unleash Dunleavy after a tremendously disappointing season. Don’t hold your breath. The Warriors have vastly overrated his skills ever since drafting him third overall in 2002, and the move to the frontcourt will further expose his lack of brawn and elevation. The question is when anyone in Golden State will own up to the mistake — we’re at half a decade and counting.
Predicted Record: 35–47