EAST

EARLY EXIT: Washington St.

The only significant loss the no. 4-seeded Cougars suffered from last season was Ivory Clark, who averaged just 8.4 points a game. But Clark’s departure only exacerbated the team’s biggest weakness: a lack of shot blockers. Coach Tony Bennett’s offense is highly efficient with Derrick Low, Kyle Weaver, and Taylor Rochestie in the backcourt. But the Cougs are at risk for an early exit without athletic defenders, especially with a primed Winthrop crew looming in the first round, and Big East beast Luke Harangody of Notre Dame a potential second-round nightmare.

BRACKET BUSTER: St. Joseph’s

Two wins over highly-ranked Atlantic-10 rivals in eight days shows that the Hawks can hang with the nation’s elite. Prior losses to Holy Cross and Duquesne, and the team’s loss to Temple in the A-10 tourney final, show that they can also live in the gutter. That makes the Hawks one of the most unpredictable — and dangerous — low seeds in the tournament. Versatile 6-foot-10-inch forward Pat Calathes is equally tough to guard straight up or in a zone, given that St. Joe’s a great equalizer. First-round opponent Oklahoma ranks 225th in overall team experience according to kenpom.com, which is another factor working in the Hawks’ favor.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Ty Lawson, North Carolina

It says a lot about Lawson’s impact when the Tar Heels’ loss to Duke in the first Tobacco Road battle didn’t rate as much of a surprise. No disrespect to Quentin Thomas, but Lawson in the lineup makes the Heels a national championship threat, while his absence means they’re all but cooked. Since it’s probably not an all-or-nothing scenario at this point, the question will be whether or not Lawson is operating at full strength. He’s been averaging a little over 20 minutes a game since his return, alternating flashes of brilliance with occasional sluggishness. If he’s not getting a full complement of minutes and fast breaks when the horn sounds this week, start looking elsewhere for an East winner.

PROJECTED WINNER: North Carolina

Despite being the top-rated no. 1 seed, the Tar Heels might have the toughest potential Elite Eight match-up with Tennessee and Louisville in the 2 and 3 slots. Both the Vols and Cardinals are capable of taking down North Carolina. The addition of Tyler Smith, and the maturation of key players such as JaJuan Smith, Wayne Chism, and J.P. Prince, make the Volunteers the most improved team in the nation compared to a year ago. This season, the Vols have even played some of their best games when Chris Lofton’s shooting has been off target. Meanwhile, Louisville has excelled since big men David Padgett, Juan Palacios, and Derrick Caracter returned from injury. Assuming Lawson’s operating at full speed, though, the Heels have no obvious weaknesses, and are projected to win the East.

MIDWEST

EARLY EXIT: Vanderbilt

The Commodores would be an early exit pick no matter where or how high they were seeded. Few teams can match the high-scoring combination of Shan Foster and A.J. Ogilvy on offense. But Vanderbilt lacks steady play from the point guard slot and is suspect defensively. The team has remained highly ranked for most of the season due largely to its 16–0 start. Vandy did catch a break by getting a no. 4 seed. Still, this is a paper tiger that’s a bad bet to make it to the tourney’s second weekend. If mid-major sleeper Siena doesn’t kick down the ‘Dores, it is likely that either ACC-tested Clemson or Villanova’s one-man wrecking crew in Scottie Reynolds will.

BRACKET BUSTER: Southern California

He’s fifth on the team in scoring, fourth in rebounding, and a virtual unknown outside the Pac-10. But USC’s Daniel Hackett is also the quintessential glue guy. Throw out the Trojans’ automatic win against Oregon State, and the team went just 3–3 with Hackett out or limited with hip and oblique injuries. When he returned, they knocked off the likes of Stanford, as well as Arizona on the road. Hackett also showed his mettle in last year’s NCAA tournament, nearly thrusting USC past North Carolina in the Sweet 16 as part of a series of post-season heroics. With Hackett back in the fold, the Trojans can trot out a starting five of O.J. Mayo, Taj Gibson, Davon Jefferson, Dwight Lewis, and Hackett that few teams can match, while at least giving them a 7-man rotation. The Mayo–Michael Beasley first-round match-up could be epic, but USC’s other weapons should allow the Trojans to prevail. That same inside-outside ability and stifling defense make an Elite Eight run possible: The Trojans can hang with — and beat — Wisconsin and Georgetown if their shots are falling.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Brandon Rush, Kansas

We knew Rush’s knee injury was behind him the first time he threw down one of his trademark alley-oop slams for the Jayhawks. Rush can dunk on people in traffic, step out to shoot the three, neutralize the top scorers of other teams, hit open men with pinpoint passes, and rebound over taller defenders. Kansas’ roster includes several players who’ll play professionally — but Rush is the straw that stirs the drink.

PROJECTED WINNER: Kansas

Is it bad luck, bad coaching, or some kind of curse that has prevented a Kansas team dripping with talent from reaching the Final Four in recent seasons? Whatever the case, that drought figures to end this season. This team is so good that Sherron Collins, a Nate Robinson clone who can break anyone down off the dribble, doesn’t even start. Mario Chalmers and Russell Robinson have been through all the wars; Darrell Arthur, Darnell Jackson and Sasha Kaun provide a physical presence, and Rush is the star waiting to seize his overdue moment. The Hoyas aren’t quite the same without Jeff Green, and Wisconsin’s a product of its weak Big 10 environment. This leaves no. 6 USC as perhaps the toughest obstacle standing between the Jayhawks and that elusive Final Four berth. This time, Kansas gets in.

SOUTH

EARLY EXIT: Miami

No one’s been able to stop Aussie point guard sensation Patrick Mills of St. Mary’s. The Hurricanes, with as little tournament experience as any major conference team, seem a bad bet to be the first to turn the trick. The best hope for the ‘Canes is for leading scorer Jack McClinton to go off like he did against Virginia a couple weeks ago, when he sprung for 34 points. But McClinton’s shooting and shot selection are a mystery from game to game: In Miami’s past four contests, he was just 17 for 51 (33%) from the field. If the two teams did nothing other than swap conference affiliations, St. Mary’s would be favored. The Gaels have the edge here.

BRACKET BUSTER: Oral Roberts

The lowest seed of this year’s dance to crack the Sweet 16? The match-ups say it’s a real possibility. Oral Roberts is a tournament-tested team, making its third straight appearance in the big dance. They lost star players Caleb Green and Ken Tutt, but came back with another Summit League title thanks to a balanced roster. Five-foot-11-inch Robert Jarvis is lightning as the team’s leading scorer, creating match-up problems for Levance Fields of Pitt and whoever emerges from the Michigan State–Temple game. Deep sleeper.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Joey Dorsey, Memphis

If John Calipari calls Dorsey the key to Memphis’ title hopes on a near-daily basis, who are we to argue? This would-be Ben Wallace clone can be a shot-blocking, rebounding terror at times, only to disappear at others — depending on whether or not Dorsey’s head is in the game. As athletic as Derrick Rose, Chris Douglas-Roberts, and Antonio Anderson are on both ends, the Tigers don’t get out of this region unless Dorsey and running mate Robert Dozier are thriving down low.

PROJECTED WINNER: Texas

In some ways, Memphis has the easiest path to the Final Four of any top seed. Double-team Brook Lopez and you neutralize no. 3 seed Stanford; no. 4 Pitt was projected as a no. 7 just a few days ago by ESPN.com’s Joe Lunardi, and hasn’t done enough to warrant elite status, and no. 5 Michigan State may not make it past suddenly red-hot Temple. But two other teams could offer a stiff challenge: no. 2 Texas and, yes, no. 6 Marquette. The Eagles were our sleeper Final Four pick at the start of the season, and might have been the choice to get through the South — if not for being dealt a geographically bad hand. We’re going with Texas here, as the Longhorns figure to ride a run through the Houston regional to another Lone Star stop in San Antonio. D.J. Augustin is one of the few point guards who can go toe-to-toe with Rose; A.J. Abrams can make the Tigers pay for pressing by spotting up for transition threes, and there’s enough talent up front to take advantage of Memphis’ inconsistent duo of Dorsey and Dozier.

WEST

EARLY EXIT: Duke

The Blue Devils have as many holes as any no. 2 seed in recent memory. The most obvious one is their lack of an effective big man: Brian Zoubek isn’t good enough to play big minutes against a top opponent, Lance Thomas is limited offensively, while Kyle Singler is an excellent player who’s also a small forward more than anything else. But the biggest reasons why Duke could go down early are the problems they could face against some of the top scorers on their slate. A scary thought is Greg Paulus going up against the Wildcats’ Jerryd Bayless or Xavier’s Drew Lavender: Paulus has no lateral quickness and gets victimized against quick, scoring guards. If Duke goes zone against those teams, we may see a barrage of threes. This is a terrible bracket for Duke — and we haven’t even discussed what UCLA would do to the Devils if they make the Elite Eight.

BRACKET BUSTER: Arizona

Ignore the Lute Olson–Kevin O’Neill saga and their inconsistent play this season. With Chase Budinger and Bayless both capable of dropping 30 at any time, the Wildcats are the pick here. Arizona’s more athletic than first-round opponent West Virginia, and the ‘Cats present match-up headaches for Duke, too. Arizona needs to stay out of foul trouble and get huge minutes from their starters, because there’s virtually no depth here. If the Mountaineers and Blue Devils are smart, they’ll use their benches liberally to try to exploit Arizona’s biggest weakness.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Jerome Dyson, Connecticut

What we wrote about Dyson for our Big East tournament preview last week also applies for the big dance: If Dyson can work his way back into the rotation after a 9-game suspension, UConn will be a team nobody will want to face. A Connecticut–UCLA Sweet 16 tilt could be a classic.

PROJECTED WINNER: UCLA

There are some intriguing sleepers in this bracket. Xavier’s an interesting no. 3 seed, even after losing in the A-10 tourney quarterfinals. The Musketeers might have the athletes to knock out Duke (assuming the Devils make it that far), and set up a Lavender vs. Darren Collison showdown in the Elite Eight. There’s also Connecticut, with a scary front line in Hasheem Thabeet, Jeff Adrien, and Stanley Robinson; the unknown but feisty Drake Bulldogs, and, yes, even Arizona, owners of perhaps the shallowest bench of any major conference team but still a tough out, with Bayless and Budinger capable of going off at any moment. Their potential Sweet 16 match-up with UConn could be their toughest challenge. But the Bruins, with stars such as Collison, Kevin Love, and Josh Shipp, as well as a strong blend of role players and up-and-comer Russell Westbrook, should prevail in the West.

FINAL FOUR PREDICTIONS

North Carolina vs. Kansas

On sheer talent alone, Kansas might be the toughest team in the field of 65. Yet every year, the Jayhawks seem to fall short of expectations. They could nab a Final Four berth this year — only to run into the trio of Hansbrough, Ellington, and Lawson, right as they’re peaking. Kansas’ best bet will be to rotate through Darrell Arthur, Darnell Jackson, and Sasha Kaun in an effort to wear Hansbrough down. Other players have emerged lately, though, including Danny Green, who was a defensive force in the recent Carolina–Duke rematch. In a close one, North Carolina advances.

Texas vs. UCLA

Texas waltzed into Pauley Pavilion earlier this year and knocked off the Bruins. Damion James played well above his size, as he’s done all year, going for 19 points, 10 boards, and dunking in the winning hoop. Augustin also went for 19, outplaying his point guard counterpart Collison. The Bruins won’t allow a repeat. Collison should do a lot better than his 4-for-14 performance in act one, while Westbrook has become a force as the season has worn on. The biggest mismatch could be on the sidelines, though. Ben Howland has guided UCLA to two straight Final Fours and knows how to plan for any offense. He will outwit Rick Barnes, leaving Love, Collison, and company free to do the rest.

Final: North Carolina vs. UCLA

Love vs. Hansbrough is the most compelling potential match-up of the tournament, one that could only occur if these two teams meet in the finals. Hansbrough has a terrific motor, is relentless on the boards, and throws in more off-balance shots down low than anyone in the country. But Love’s a cut above: He’s the best passing big man in America and a do-it-all offensive player who’s even started flashing three-point range. Collison and Lawson should battle to a draw, while Westbrook will hound Ellington the way he did against Mayo at the Galen Center earlier this year. Love’s upper hand over Hansbrough will prove to be the tiebreaker, giving UCLA its first national championship since the Jim Harrick era.

2008 National Champion: UCLA