24 Nations Face Off in Japan, but Can Anyone Beat the U.S.?

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Okay, Jerry, it’s time for your final exam.

When USA Basketball made Jerry Colangelo the tsar of the American program following the twin disappointments of the 2002 World Championships and 2004 Olympics, the goal was to restore the U.S. squad to its former glory on the international stage. For the last two years, Colangelo has been building for the next two weeks: the World Championships, which start Saturday in Japan.

While the Americans looked good in their exhibition games, there’s still lingering doubts since they only played one good team. So when the U.S. tips off against Puerto Rico Saturday (Set your TiVos: It’s on at 1 a.m. on ESPN2) — the same Puerto Rico team that waxed the U.S. in its Olympic opener two years ago — Colangelo will get his first taste of whether the plan worked.

But enough about the U.S. 23 other teams will tip off in Japan this weekend, and we haven’t talked about any of them yet. Here’s a quick scouting report on the competition:

Dead on Arrival: Qatar, Lebanon, Japan, and Senegal. Either of these teams would be overjoyed to win once, let alone make it to the second round.

Undermanned: Angola, Turkey, Nigeria, and China. All four teams are interesting enough to cause some problems on the right night, but I don’t expect any to make the second-round. China is the most intriguing of the four, but Yao Ming is still a question mark as he returns from a foot injury and future lottery pick Yi Jianlin still has a long way to go. Plus, their guards are terrible. Turkey would be in better shape if NBA stalwarts Mehmet Okur and Hedo Turkoglu made the trip.

ELIMINATION ROUND ROADKILL: Venezuela, Puerto Rico, and Panama. The tournament has enough bad teams that each of these three qualifiers from the Americas will probably make the second round. But once they get there, it will be a moral victory if they lose by less than 20. Between the three there’s only one NBA regular, Orlando’s Carlos Arroyo who plays for Puerto Rico, although all three employ several former U.S. college players.

MOST UNFORTUNATE DRAW: Australia.The Aussies actually have a pretty good team, with Bucks center Andrew Bogut, underrated Nebraska big men Aleks Maric, and NBA draft hopeful Brad Newley. But they’re in the tournament’s toughest group, with Lithuania, Brazil, Greece, and Turkey, and I’m projecting them to come in fourth … which means a date with the U.S. to begin the elimination round. See ya.

MAYBE SOME OTHER YEAR: Italy, Lithuania, New Zealand, and Germany. Italy and Lithuania met in the semifinals at the Athens Olympics, but don’t expect a repeat. Both are missing several key veterans from their national sides, and Italy’s young stud Andrea Bargnani will also miss the tournament.

New Zealand came in fourth at the last Worlds, but again, don’t look for an encore. The “Tall Blacks”are a fun team but they overachieved last time, and their talent hasn’t kept up with some of the top European and South American sides. As for Germany, they’re still way too dependent on Dirk Nowitzki, but will have trouble avoiding a second-place finish in the horrid Group B.

THE WILD CARD: Serbia-Montenegro. The defending world champions have struggled mightily since winning the 2002 Worlds — even more than the U.S. The Serbs failed to make the medal round in the Olympics and needed a wild card to qualify for the tournament after a dismal showing at the European Championships last year. On the other hand, they still have talent, including Darko Milicic and the Nets’ new addition Mile Ilic. They’re the U.S.’s likely opponent in the quarterfinals.

THE SLEEPERS: Greece and Slovenia. Pssst… Greece won the European Championships last year. Don’t tell anyone. While the Greeks only have one NBA player on their roster (newly signed Rocket Vasilis Spanoulis), they possess several of the best players in Europe. Keep an eye on Theodoros Papaloukas, who is probably the best player in Europe right now, and defensive ace Dimitrios Diamantidis. The Greeks will have a tough slate, however, as their likely quarterfinal opponent will be France or Argentina. Slovenia has several NBA players, though none are stars — Spurs guard Beno Udrih is probably their best player. They’re a good bet to take second behind the U.S.in Group D, and they should get to the quarterfinals before running into Spain.

DARK HORSE TO WIN IT ALL: France. The French came in second in Sydney in 2000, and if this tournament were played by NBA rules they’d come in second again. With the Spurs’ Tony Parker, the Suns’ Boris Diaw, and the Warriors’ Mickael Pietrus, this is the most athletic team besides the Americans. Unfortunately, they don’t have enough of the shooting that is so important in the international game, and their big people aren’t skilled. Also, Parker broke a bone in his hand last week and is likely to be at less than full strength.

BATTLE FOR THE BRONZE: Argentina and Spain. Spain might be the second-best team in the tournament but is projected to face the U.S. in the semifinals. Although they only have one NBA star, Memphis’s Pau Gasol, they have several European veterans and have played together a long time.They were the best defensive team in Athens and were unbeaten until Stephon Marbury exploded on them in the quarterfinals.

Argentina is the defending gold medalists, and between San Antonio’s Manu Ginobili and European star Luis Scola, they have a great inside-outside combo, plus several other NBA pros. Like the Spaniards, they also have great chemistry. However, their results in tune-up games have been disappointing, and based on Scola’s European numbers, I’m wondering if his game has slipped some since Athens.

THE RUNNER-UP: Brazil. That close call against the U.S. was no fluke. Brazil only has a few NBA players, but they’re the kind that thrive in the international game. Suns guard Leandro Barbosa can hit the three and get to the rim, while Cavs center Anderson Varejao and likely 2007 lottery pick Tiago Splitter can control the paint with their rebounding and shot-blocking. As a result, I like Brazil to upset Argentina in an all-South American semifinal.

THE CHAMPION: U.S. Anything can happen in a single-elimination tournament, so the Americans aren’t the stone-cold lock they were with the first three Dream Teams. But with so much depth, shooting, and athleticism, it seems almost silly to bet another team. The lessons from Athens and Indianapolis were hard ones, but it appears they’ve been learned.


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