3-Year-Olds Make Case for Kentucky

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The New York Sun

“It looks like we’ve got a horserace.” So announced Santa Anita track announcer Trevor Denman when Spanish Chestnut, Going Wild, and Declan’s Moon hit the top of the stretch in Saturday’s Grade II Santa Catalina Stakes. Denman’s trademark cool excitement said it all – not only did we have a great race to the wire in California, but we’re having a great race to the first Saturday in May, too.


Last year’s Kentucky Derby prep races were typified by freaky young horses disappointing us. Wannabe contenders crawled in last, lagging on the stretch. Excuses filled the air like mayflies.


In contrast, this year’s 3-year-olds are looking sharp, and the Santa Catalina Stakes gave us a flash of what they can do.


Spanish Chestnut started out front, setting a quick pace. Eclipse Award-winner Declan’s Moon, making his 3-year-old debut, was on the outside all the way around; Going Wild was tucked in on the rail.


Coming out of the turn, Going Wild seemed as if he were about to find another gear and run away, but Spanish Chestnut was gamely digging in, fighting to keep the race. Then Declan’s Moon unleashed a serious rally, and opened two lengths of daylight ahead of Going Wild. That brought the early Derby favorite to five wins for five starts.


In Florida, meanwhile, two more promising 3-year-olds logged big victories Saturday at the construction site functioning as Gulfstream Park.


In the Grade II Swale Stakes, undefeated Lost in the Fog stepped up in class to win his first graded-stakes victory. The 7-furlong race got off to a hot start, with More Smoke setting early fractions of 22.07 and 44.67. Lost in the Fog sat snugly in second, and let the pacesetter go before moving up on him at the quarter pole and drawing off to win by 4 3/4 lengths. Following the race, trainer Greg Gilchrist told the press that Lost in the Fog’s handlers were putting up the $6,000 it would cost to nominate the horse for the Triple Crown races.


Later on the same card, High Fly showed himself to be back in top form in the Grade II Fountain of Youth stakes. B. B. Best set the early fractions, with High Fly and Bandini stalking him all the way. When High Fly made his move, B. B. Best didn’t want to give in, and put in a game effort. Bandini responded to some hard riding, and was getting up at the end of the stretch, but Nick Zito’s High Fly held on for the win.


As if that weren’t enough action for one weekend, Afleet Alex hit the track in Saturday’s Mountain Valley Stakes at Oaklawn Park, his first race since going to the post for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Afleet Alex was heavily bet, and rightly so. After a screaming early pace, he stormed to finish the 6-furlong race 2 3/4 lengths ahead of Razor.


The first thing to notice about these Derby preps is that the running order didn’t really change significantly in any of the races. The first three horses in the first turn were the same ones dueling through the second turn.


Lost in the Fog proved that he could come from just off the pace; Declan’s Moon and High Fly both stalked. Last week’s winner on the Derby Trail, Sun King, came from a little deeper in the pack, but we have yet to see a strong, late charge from any of these horses. Rather, we’ve seen obstacle-free trips, good setups, and smart closing moves from just off the pace.


The second, and far more astonishing thing to notice about this round of Derby preps is that the chalk is winning. Declan’s Moon isn’t supposed to come into his 3-year-old season looking like a champ – that goes against all we know about the curse of the Juvenile Champion. But these horses, all across the country, are showing themselves to be the real thing. We’ve got a horserace, all right.


***


It takes some horses years to live up to their reputation. Rock Hard Ten was the constant threat last year, the looming big horse on the verge of ripping the 3-year-old scene apart with his long stride and his rippling muscles. But he never did.


This year, though, the horse is coming into his own. He won the Grade I Malibu Stakes on December 26, and then took the Strub Stakes on February 5. On Saturday, he won the Santa Anita Handicap – his biggest race yet, and his first victory against older horses.


Rock Hard Ten couldn’t be more different than the skittish runner that we saw as a 3-year-old. It already looks as if this year’s top 3-year-olds won’t take as long to come into form.


The New York Sun

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