Abreu Is a Good Deal, But Lidle Is the Big Deal

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The New York Sun

The 2006 trade deadline passed with a flurry of activity, but without much change to the balance of power in baseball. Many of the big names that were expected to move stayed at home. Nonetheless, the New York Yankees did more to help themselves than any team in baseball — and it’s not just because of Bobby Abreu.

With the Nationals’ Alfonso Soriano, Orioles shortstop Miguel Tejada, and Oakland lefty Barry Zito, all thought of as the best players who might change uniforms, not moving anywhere, that left Bobby Abreu as the big summer prize.However, he came with some baggage in the form of a giant contract. That limited his potential suitors, allowing the Yankees to step in and nab him from the Phillies along with righthander Cory Lidle, improving their team dramatically in one fell swoop. In addition, the three deals the Yankees pulled off in the final week of the deadline become so much more important because the rest of the American League East stood pat, giving the Yankees an edge as the season moves into the final two months.

As opposed to looking at each individual trade, let’s sum all three into one balance sheet.

TRADE: RHP Shawn Chacon, SS C.J. Henry (Lo A), SS Hector Made (Hi A), RHP Carlos Monasterios (Rookie), C Jesus Sanchez (Rookie), LHP Matt Smith (AAA).

RECEIVE: OF Bobby Abreu, C Sal Fasano, RHP Cory Lidle, OF/1B Craig Wilson.

It’s a staggering take for what really amounts to very little, and Brian Cashman certainly wins the American League General Manager of the Week award for these improvements. The Yankees didn’t trade anyone from their big league roster other than Chacon, who was on his way out anyway, and they were at the same time able to hold onto top prospects like first baseman Eric Duncan, outfielder Jose Tabata, and pitchers Philip Hughes and Tyler Clippard.

With Fasano, the Yankees basically replace Kelly Stinnett with the player Stinnett was supposed to be — a serviceable backup with good defensive skills and occasional power. He’ll have little impact, but won’t hurt the team either, as he is in line for fewer than 80 at-bats unless Jorge Posada gets hurt. In return, the Phillies received Hector Made, a once highly regarded Dominican shortstop whose development has stalled with his struggles at the plate.

As for Wilson, hitting home runs is his only real skill — but it’s a nice one to have. He can play first base or either corner outfield, but he doesn’t play any position especially well. He doesn’t run, and he strikes out a ton. Despite his flaws, he gives them a bench bat that does strike some fear into opposing pitchers, especially when facing lefthanders, against whom Wilson has 32 home runs in 513 career at-bats.

Lidle is the most underrated acquisition of the four, and his impact on the Yankee’s ability to win the AL East could be larger than even the more high-profile Abreu.

That may be a surprising conclusion for a pitcher with an 8–7 record and a 4.74 ERA. Lidle is filling the fifth starter slot, which Chacon forfeited with his recent performance. Aaron Small, Sidney Ponson, and Kris Wilson proved to be no better. The final rotation position has posted a combined ERA over eight this season. By simply pitching to his abilities, a 5.00 ERA out of Lidle could be worth 20–30 runs over what should be 10–12 starts, or roughly 2–3 wins more than what the Yankees would have had by continuing with the status quo.Abreu would need to have a monster two months to have a similar impact on a run measurement basis.

Just as importantly is the manner in which Lidle gets his job done. He does not have great stuff — he barely has good stuff — but what he does have is consistency, and that’s exactly what the Yankees need out of their back-of-therotation starters. Lidle is incapable of dominating, and he’s given up at least two runs in all 21 of his starts; yet at the same time, he never gets hammered and forced to make an early exit. This is crucial for the Yankees, considering their overworked bullpen. Only once this year has Lidle failed to go at least five innings, and only twice has he given up more than four earned runs. That’s a level of consistency not found in any Yankees starter other than Mike Mussina. With a team that scores runs like the Yankees, starts from Lidle turn into very winnable games, as opposed to the first half of the year when double-digit runs were needed.

Abreu is of course the name everyone is talking about, and despite a surprising lack of power this year, his .427 on-base percentage should make one of the AL’s top offenses that much better.

The Yankees’ overall upgrade gives them more ammunition in their fight with the Red Sox, Tigers, Twins, and White Sox over the next eight weeks. The five squads are the class of the American League, but two will be sitting home in October.

Mr. Goldstein is a writer for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art analysis, visit baseballprospectus.com.


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