Entering the season, the AFC East was considered the NFL’s toughest division. All four teams are 1-1, and this week, while the Jets are hosting Jacksonville, their three division rivals – New England, Miami, and Buffalo – will each take the field against a top Super Bowl contender.

PATRIOTS (1-1) AT STEELERS (2-0)
(Sunday, 4:15 p.m. CBS)

When these teams met on Halloween last year, the Patriots were riddled by injuries to the offensive line and secondary. Pittsburgh jumped out to an early lead, and, without the threat of the run, the New England offense sputtered. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger needed just a handful of passes to take advantage of the unprepared backup cornerbacks before spending the second half handing the ball off as the Steelers coasted.

But when the AFC championship game rolled around, New England had a healthy running game and a more experienced secondary. Pittsburgh had demonstrated in the first round of the playoffs that their young quarterback could be flustered by constant pressure. The Steelers turned the ball over on their first two possessions, found themselves behind 10-0 after just eight minutes, and never recovered.

Right now, it looks like Part Three in this rivalry will follow the pattern of the first. The Patriots are gaining just 2.6 yards per carry this season, and Corey Dillon suddenly looks unable to turn the corner and blow past defenders. Once again, the secondary is suffering from injuries, with four of the top five cornerbacks listed as questionable.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has dominated its first two opponents, thanks mostly to its offensive line. Roethlisberger has averaged 14.3 yards per pass play, six yards more than any other starting quarterback. And third-string running back Willie Parker, forced into the lineup by injuries, ranks second in the NFL in rushing yards.

But what if the Steelers don’t take an early lead? Roethlisberger’s outstanding start has included just 32 pass attempts, because neither Tennessee nor Houston could keep things close in the first half. That’s all the Patriots have to do to take Pittsburgh out of its comfort zone. It will force Roethlisberger to try to decode the shifting schemes of a Bill Belichick defense. Of course, the Patriots will still need a resurgence from Dillon and an accurate Tom Brady to overcome the equally talented Steelers defense.

FALCONS (1-1) AT BILLS (2-0)
(Sunday, 1 p.m.)

Before the season, this game seemed to be a meeting of mirror images. Both Buffalo and Atlanta are built around a traditional blueprint of running and defense, highlighted by a robust pass rush. According to Adjusted Sack Rate, a measure of sacks per pass play with adjustments for situation and opponent, Atlanta had the NFL’s second-best pass rush in 2004, with Buffalo right behind them in third.

The difference would seem to be that Atlanta will arrive in Buffalo with the game’s most electrifying, unpredictable playmaker, quarterback Michael Vick, while the Bills will counter with the inexperienced J.P. Losman, making just his third NFL start.

Well, you can strike that part of the script. Vick is listed as “probable” for the game after he injured his left hamstring on a 32-yard scramble late in last week’s loss at Seattle. Vick is a game-time decision, and for the biggest stars in the NFL, that decision is rarely to sit on the bench. But if Vick does play, he won’t be 100%, especially when it comes to his famous mobility. Without that mobility, the Falcons are left with the quarterback who, according to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) ratings – which break down each play of the season and compare it to the NFL average based on situation and opponent – was the NFL’s worst passer last year (minimum 250 passes).

If Vick sits, the Falcons are left with backup Matt Schaub, who has even less experience than Losman, was an even worse passer than Vick in limited action last year, and barely completed half his passes in this year’s preseason.

For Atlanta to win despite a hobbled 805 1699 923 1710Vick or a subpar Schaub, they’ll need to grind it out in a defensive dogfight. But don’t let Atlanta’s big win over Philadelphia or Buffalo’s loss to Tampa Bay last week fool you: So far in 2005, only one of these teams has lived up to its defensive reputation. Through two games, Buffalo is ranked sixth in defensive DVOA, while Atlanta is ranked a dismal 28th.

PANTHERS (1-1) AT DOLPHINS (2-0)
(Sunday, 4:15 p.m. CBS)

This year’s Dolphins look far better than their turmoil-ridden selves of 2004. Part of the change is preparation and leadership from new head coach Nick Saban, and part of it is the fact that veteran quarterback Gus Frerotte has not been the cover-your-eyes catastrophe most observers anticipated. Instead, he’s been delightfully mediocre, while the porous Miami offensive line, which gave up 52 sacks last year, has allowed just two in 2005.

The Miami defense, meanwhile, is back to its usually stalwart ways, particularly against the run. The Dolphins have allowed just 3.1 yards per carry in two games against two top running teams, the Broncos and Jets. A similar performance this week will force Carolina to put the game in the hands of quarterback Jake Delhomme, who has struggled to find a receiver other than veteran Steve Smith. Smith, who will be shadowed by Miami star cornerback Sam Madison, has caught 12 passes for 172 yards in the first two games and shows no ill effects from the broken leg that cost him most of the 2004 season.

Elsewhere, two struggling role players face off. Carolina’s no. 2 wideout, Keary Colbert, has stumbled in his attempt to build on last year’s decent rookie campaign, catching just two of the ten passes thrown his way for a total of 11 yards. Facing him will be Miami cornerback Reggie Howard, who was thrust into the lineup when expected starter Will Poole tore his ACL in minicamp.

Smith will get his yards, but a Carolina victory will come much easier if Colbert can win this clash of Achilles’ heels.

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.