AFC Wild Card Race Is for the Taking

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

The AFC division titles seem wrapped up, but the Wild Card spots are very much up for grabs. Will those places go to last year’s playoff teams, Jacksonville and Denver, or a suddenly hot team like the Miami Dolphins?

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (6-5) AT MIAMI DOLPHINS (5–6)
(Sunday, 4:05 p.m. CBS)

The Jaguars and Dolphins have been both good and bad this year. The difference is that the Dolphins were bad to start the season, and good over the past month. The Jaguars have looked dominant in some weeks and horrible in others, and the pattern of these performances seems to have no rhyme or reason.

The Dolphins’ turnaround has been keyed by a dramatic improvement in pass defense. Before their Week 8 bye, the Dolphins allowed 6.1 net yards a pass attempt. In the four wins, that number has dropped to 4.5, and they are also intercepting the ball with more frequency. Veteran defensive end Jason Taylor has been making plays all over the field, and third-year strong safety Yeremiah Bell has really blossomed over the past four games. Sixteen times this season, Bell has made a play resulting in a turnover or offensive failure on third down. That ranks third among NFL safeties, behind Arizona’s Adrian Wilson and Pittsburgh’s Troy Polamalu.

In every other area of the game, the Dolphins are pretty much the same team they were early in the season. Dolphins’ offense averaged 5.5 net yards per pass and 4.1 yards per rush during their 1–6 start. During the four-game winning streak, the Dolphins are averaging … 5.5 net yards a pass and 4.1 yards per rush. The difference has been turnovers (roughly one fewer per game) and sacks (26 in the first seven games, but only two since). And Miami’s run defense was never a problem during those early losses, allowing 3.6 yards per carry during the 1-6 start and 3.5 yards per carry since.

Miami’s strengths and weaknesses are much easier to analyze than Jacksonville’s, because nobody knows which Jacksonville team will show up each Sunday. The Jaguars shut down winning teams like the Eagles and Giants. They blew out the Jets and nearly beat the Colts on the road. But they also lost twice to Houston, one of the worst teams in the league.

Some Jaguars fans think that quarterback David Garrard is more of a “winner” than the injured Byron Leftwich, whom he replaced halfway through the year. Other fans believe that Leftwich is the better passer, and Garrard is a glorified handoff machine. But actually, the quarterback change hasn’t changed anything. Leftwich and Garrard have virtually identical statistics this season; Leftwich completed a few more passes than Garrard but had a slightly lower average of yards per completion. Leftwich had a slightly higher passer rating of 79.0; Garrard has a rating of 77.5. Both are inconsistent, like nearly everyone else in Jacksonville.

Most of the time, Jacksonville’s secondary is of the league’s best — but in Jacksonville losses, the cornerbacks have been burned for huge gains. Some days, Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor are banging out consistent runs over and over; other days, they’ve had a couple big gains and a bunch of stuffs at the line.

The only thing the Jaguars have managed to do consistently is stop the run; Jacksonville has allowed more than four yards a carry in just three games this year, and only one of those was a loss.

With Miami’s defense playing at a high level, this will probably be a low-scoring game. If the Jacksonville defense is having a good day, they can win. If it’s as porous against Joey Harrington as it was against J.P. Losman and David Carr, chalk up a fifth straight win for the Dolphins.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (6-5) AT DENVER BRONCOS (7–4)
(Sunday, 8:15 p.m., NBC)

As veteran quarterback Jake Plummer struggled in game after game, Broncos fans turned first-round pick Jay Cutler into the embodiment of their hopes and dreams. Like a mythical hero, Cutler is expected to ride in on his winged steed and bring back the Golden Age of Elway. And if that wasn’t enough pressure, his first start is on national television.

But Cutler cannot cure all ills. Veteran Rod Smith has slowed down, and the Denver tight ends are not playing well, leaving wide receiver Javon Walker as a one-man show. The running game has struggled with injuries, although a healthy Tatum Bell finally returns this week.

Meanwhile, Denver has to deal with the fact that its defense is not as good as advertised. Early success in the red zone kept the Broncos from allowing many points, but Denver ranks 16th in yards allowed per pass attempt and 14th in yards allowed per carry. That’s an average defense, not a great one.

In particular, the run defense has been decaying in recent weeks, with 3.6 yards a carry allowed through Week 7 but 4.5 yards a carry allowed since. And while Champ Bailey is the best cornerback in the game, he can only cover one man at a time. Seattle has a deep receiving corps, highlighted by Darrell Jackson, Deion Branch, and the NFL’s most anonymous good receiver, D.J. Hackett.

The good news for Denver is that Seattle’s offense hasn’t been as good as advertised either. The Seahawks are counting on two returning stars to bring back last year’s offensive juggernaut. Last week, running back Shaun Alexander and quarterback Matt Hasselbeck were both in the lineup for the first time since the start of the season. Alexander looked spectacular, with quick cuts and bursts that matched last year’s MVP campaign, but Hasselbeck struggled, turning the ball over four times in the first half.

Seattle’s defense has also regressed this season, both in coverage and tackling. The one part of the defense that remains strong is the pass rush, third in the NFL in sacks. But the Seahawks are 22nd in yards allowed per pass attempt and 25th in yards allowed per carry.

Against this defense, the Broncos don’t need Cutler to be the savior. Unless he plays worse than Plummer did, they’ll be fine. But more of the same won’t win this game for Seattle. They need Matt Hasselbeck to be the quarterback he was last year, not the quarterback he was last week.

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.


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