After 234 Weeks, Federer’s Reign at No. 1 in Jeopardy

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In Melbourne, Roger Federer lost the Australian Open crown that he had worn for two years, in part because of a bout with mononucleosis. In Indian Wells, Calif., and in Miami, he couldn’t win either of the two hard court tournaments he dominated a few years earlier. In Paris, his third consecutive run to the finals ended in an embarrassing defeat in which he won a mere four games. Worst of all, at Wimbledon he lost his grip on the tournament that he had owned since 2003. As the summer hard court season begins, the most dominant player in the history of tennis has lost all but two pieces of his empire: the U.S. Open and the no. 1 ranking. Even if he retains the former, the latter almost certainly will fall into the hands of Rafael Nadal by year’s end.

Federer and Nadal return to action this week at the Rogers Cup in Toronto, a few weeks earlier than usual because the summer schedule has been adjusted to accommodate the Olympics, which begin in Beijing on August 8. At the moment, Nadal, the French Open and Wimbledon champion, trails Federer by 770 points in the rankings. But if you subtract the points from last year’s hard court season — namely, the tournaments in Canada, Cincinnati, and the U.S. Open — Nadal leads Federer by 700 points. For Federer, that is the magic number this summer. Outdo Nadal by 700 points and he retains the top ranking, at least until later in the year. Otherwise, Nadal takes over.

Federer has his work cut out for him. I’ve waded into the complexities of rankings in this column before, but there’s a simple way to look at the system. The question to ask yourself is, “How many points does a player have available to him?” If a player wins tournament A, when that tournament comes around again the next year, the player has nothing to gain (or, no points available). If he wins, he maintains the same number of points. If he loses even a round earlier, he gives up points. If he doesn’t play the event, he gives up all the points. Federer always has a strong summer hard court season, and last season, in fact, was among his best: He lost in the final of the Rogers Cup, won Cincinnati, and won the U.S. Open for the fourth consecutive year. Even though the Olympics give him the opportunity to win as many as 400 additional points this summer, he has much less to gain than Nadal, who has yet to deliver a strong summer hard court season.

If we total all the points available to each player from now until the second weekend in September (including the Olympics and the U.S. Open final), Federer can add — at most — 550 points to his current total (if he wins in Toronto and Cincinnati, wins the gold medal, and defends his U.S. Open title). If Nadal wins all those events, he’ll add 2,020 points to his ranking. The differences in opportunities are so great that Federer could win all of these events and still lose the no. 1 ranking after the U.S. Open, provided that Nadal regularly reaches the semifinals and finals of events (yet doesn’t win a tournament). After the U.S. Open, matters won’t get much better for Federer. He won last year’s Masters Cup in Shanghai; Nadal lost in the semifinals. In Shanghai and at other late-season indoor tournaments, Federer could add about 1,600 points to his ranking by the end of the year, while Nadal has a chance to add twice that many.

How difficult will it be for Federer to stay on top? Consider this scenario. Suppose Federer beats Nadal in the final of Toronto, Cincinnati, the Olympics, and the U.S. Open. He would remain no. 1 — by a margin of 20 points. If the two men turned in identical performances the rest of the season and met in the final of the Masters Cup (rather than the semifinals, as they did last year), Federer would lose the no. 1 ranking even if he won that match. This bears repeating: Federer could beat Nadal in the final of the five biggest events remaining this season, and he would lose his no. 1 ranking.

If this seems unfair, I’m here to tell you it isn’t. Nadal already deserves the no. 1 ranking for the simple reason that what he has accomplished this year — winning the French Open-Wimbledon double for the first time in 28 years, and doing it against Federer in the prime of his career — ranks among the finest achievements in tennis history. It should be difficult for Federer to keep something that, at the moment, his rival deserves more.

If Federer stumbles in Toronto this week, we could see the end of his reign at no. 1 — which began in February 2004 and has spanned 234 weeks — sooner rather than later. I doubt that will happen. As awful as that Wimbledon loss had to have felt, Federer will not sulk through the remainder of the season. However, I’m guessing we’re going to witness Nadal’s best hard court season this year, too. He has extra motivation and confidence (as if he needed more of either) this year, and he’s clearly a better player than in years past. Better still, the men who often trouble him on hard courts — powerful hitters such as Tomas Berdych, James Blake, Mikhail Youzhny, and Richard Gasquet — are slumping or hurting. As well as Federer might play this summer, it probably won’t be well enough to protect the top ranking that he has held longer than any man before him.

Mr. Perrotta is a senior editor at Tennis magazine. He can be reached at tperrotta@ tennismagazine.com.


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