After an Easy Weekend, U.S. Prepares for First Real Test

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The New York Sun

So far, so good.

After opening the World Championships with two convincing victories this weekend, the U.S. basketball team has established itself as the favorite at this year’s event in Japan. The American side ran past Puerto Rico 111–100 on Saturday and then manhandled China 121–90 yesterday.

But the heavy lifting is yet to come. After a day off today, the U.S. faces the two best teams in its group — Slovenia and Italy — on Tuesday and Wednesday. And following an expected rout of Senegal in its final preliminary game, the U.S. faces the real test: the singleelimination round, where one bad day can undo all the good done in pool play. Just ask Spain: They went unbeaten in the first round of the Olympics a year ago, but went home without a medal when the U.S.beat them in the quarterfinals.

Though they’re 2–0, the U.S. showed some warts this weekend, particularly in the Puerto Rico game. Granted, the result was infinitely better than the 19-point drubbing the Puerto Ricans handed the U.S. in the opening game at the Olympics, but it would take a real optimist to say the U.S. played well Saturday. While the team got numerous easy transition baskets, the halfcourt offense looked spotty and the defense was decidedly subpar.

Yesterday’s game against China was a different matter. The U.S. opened a 15-point lead in the first five minutes and never was seriously threatened, with the team’s pressure defense creating 25 turnovers and converting most of them into dunks and lay-ups at the other end.

Both contests showcased some flaws that the Americans will need to work on if they’re to knock off the big guns later in the tournament. First off, the guards need to stop gambling so much. The steals and transition baskets have been great, but the guards — especially Chris Paul and Dwyane Wade — must strike a balance between forcing turnovers and taking bad risks that lead to easy baskets for the opponent.

Reducing the gambling might also help with the team’s other big weakness: defending the 3-point line. The U.S. allowed Puerto Rico to make 10-of-16 from beyond the arc, and even China, a team notorious for its weak guard play, nailed 13-of-31. It seems they haven’t fully accounted for just how short the international 3-point line is, and how prominently it figures into most opponents’ game plans. They can get away with beating lower-rung teams like Puerto Rico and China while giving up close to 50% shooting on 3s, but that won’t be the case against the Italy’s and Slovenia’s of the world.

The other big lesson for the U.S. team was that pairing LeBron James and Dwyane Wade in the same lineup isn’t necessarily a good idea. Puerto Rico used a zone defense that exposed that duo’s lack of outside shooting — especially since Chris Paul was out there with them — and it was a major reason it took so long for the U.S. to pull away. The American side didn’t really get untracked in that game until shooters Kirk Hinrich and Joe Johnson came off the bench to nail three 3-pointers apiece.

On a positive note, the decision to keep Shane Battier over Bruce Bowen looks like a good one so far. Battier was at his scrappy best in the win over China, even taking a charge from Yao Ming, and his spot in yesterday’s starting lineup may be a permanent one as the tournament goes on. To cement it, though, he’ll have to improve with the longball; he made only 1-of-4 from downtown against China, and the team as a whole was just 6-for-20.

The rest of the U.S. frontcourt could also be different from what we thought in the exhibition games. In particular, Dwight Howard has made it almost impossible to keep him off the floor. He continues to dominate on the glass, as he was the U.S.’s top rebounder in each of the first two games, and he’s also scored in double figures both times. While Howard’s jumper is a liability, his finishing skills are a perfect complement to the drive-and-dish talents of Paul, Wade, and James, so he’s getting plenty of chances to slam home shots around the basket.

Howard and his primary sub, Elton Brand, will be the only post players, as the U.S. will surround them with four perimeter players to keep the driving lanes open for its quick guards. That means Battier and Carmelo Anthony will be the team’s primary power forwards, with Antawn Jamison and Chris Bosh also getting some minutes, while Wade, James, Anthony, and Johnson will take up the minutes at the wing. At the point, Paul and Hinrich continue to split time, with Paul entrenching himself as the starter with two strong games to begin the tournament.

When the going gets tough, look for coach Mike Krzyzewski to whittle things down to a nine-man rotation. Barring foul trouble, Jamison and Bosh will see little action, and Brad Miller probably won’t play at all. But the reduced rotation won’t be in effect until the elimination round. For now, the U.S.’s depth is a tremendous asset considering the grinding nature of this tournament. (Five games in six days? Are you kidding me?).

As for the rest of the tournament, the big shocker from the first two days was Serbia-Montenegro’s loss to unheralded Nigeria. The Serbs are now the only winless team in Group A and are in danger of failing to advance to the elimination round.Another historically strong side, Lithuania, also is in danger after losing two close scrapes in the highly competitive Group C.

The biggest surprise would have to be Turkey, who won nail-biters over Lithuania and Australia to improve to 2–0. They and Greece are the only unbeaten sides in the group, and if that holds up the group finale between the two historical enemies should have some added intrigue. Incidentally, American fans should have more than a passing interest in Group C, as the fourth-place team will be the Americans’ likely opponent to begin the second round. As things stand now, that would be Brazil, but much can change over the next few days.

In the meantime, the U.S. already is virtually assured of its place in the elimination round.The question is how well they’ll have adapted to the international style by the time they get there. For a good clue, watch the games against Italy and Slovenia closely, and especially watch how the Americans defend the 3-point line. If it’s tough to get a clean look from out there, then the U.S. should be golden, but if it keeps raining 3s they might be headed for an untimely exit.


The New York Sun

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