After Three Misfires, Eagles’ Time Has Arrived

For a team that went 13-1 to open the season, the Philadelphia Eagles have had to face an awful lot of probing questions in recent weeks. Last week’s big question was whether they could put points on the board despite the in jury to star receiver Terrell Owens. This week, the football world is wondering whether the Eagles can overcome the legacy of three straight losses in the NFC Championship Game.The answer to the second question should be the same as the first: a resounding “yes.” None of the three previous Philadelphia teams to make the NFC title game dominated their conference like the 2004 Eagles. In fact, Philadelphia was the only NFC team to rank in the NFL’s top 10 according to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) ratings, which break down each play of the season and compare it to the NFL average based on situation and opponent.The Falcons, meanwhile, rode an easy schedule sprinkled with a few spectacular wins to an 11-5 record. The Falcons’ chances on Sunday are clouded not only by their remarkable inconsistency this season, but also by a weather forecast that includes high winds, temperatures in the 20s, and up to two feet of snow.WHEN THE FALCONS HAVE THE BALLNo dome team has ever won outside en route to the Super Bowl, but the Falcons do not fear the elements. While most dome teams are based on the pass, the Falcons are driven by a three-man running attack. They were one of four teams in the NFL this season to run on more than half their offensive plays, and led the league in rushing yards and yards per carry.Michael Vick may be the finest running quarterback of all time; his value as a runner was three times greater than that of any other quarterback this season. Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett, long ignored in Vick’s shadow, are finally getting their due after Atlanta’s 47-17 dismantling of the Rams last week. And thanks to the blocking schemes of offensive line coach Alex Gibbs, Atlanta’s runners were stuffed at the line less often than those of any other NFL team.The Eagles, however, substantially improved their run defense in Week 10 by re-installing Jeremiah Trotter in the middle linebacker position. They have allowed only 3.7 yards per carry since Trotter rejoined the starting lineup (excluding the final two regular season games where most starters rested), versus 4.9 before that. Surprisingly nimble at 262 pounds, Trotter excels at stuffing runs to the middle and pursuing runners on the outside.Talented safety Brian Dawkins can also help contain the Atlanta backs if he’s not needed to stop the pass. And there’s no reason to believe he will be: The Falcons’ passing attack is horrific.Vick has significantly regressed as a passer since a fine 2002 season, and his performance in important situations is particularly bewildering. When he had to pass on third down, Vick converted 20% less often than a league average quarterback this season. When passing on goal-to-go downs, Vick racked up as many sacks and interceptions (four and two) as touchdowns (six).Because his mobility leads him to rely on running away when he should be throwing the ball away, Vick gets sacked more than three times a game. Now he must face the added challenge of Philadelphia’s complicated blitz packages. Look for Jevon Kearse to wreak havoc on the outside, where he will be matched up mostly against inconsistent right tackle Todd Weiner.Vick’s only reliable receiver, tight end Alge Crumpler, figures to be well covered. The Eagles are one of the league’s best teams defending passes to tight ends, thanks to strong linebackers as well as coverage by Dawkins. The Eagles are also strong on passes to running backs, which will limit screen passes to Dunn.WHEN THE EAGLES HAVE THE BALLDonovan McNabb is a good pocket passer, and his running ability gives the Eagles’ offense an added dimension. The difference between McNabb and Vick is that McNabb uses his mobility to buy time for a pass, while Vick often runs to avoid exposing his weaknesses as a passer.McNabb’s ability to avoid pressure will be important against the Falcons, whose defensive strength is their pass rush – Atlanta led the NFL with 48 sacks this season. The Falcons’ front four, particularly Patrick Kerney and Rod Coleman, exerts particularly heavy pressure on third downs, and Mc-Nabb must be careful to never let himself be dropped out of field goal range.Freddie Mitchell replaced Owens as an outside receiver during the Eagles’ 27-14 defeat of the Vikings last week, while running back Brian Westbrook – who has better hands than any of the wideouts – lined up as a slot receiver for much of the game. The Falcons’ linebackers, with the exception of Keith Brooking, struggle in pass coverage and will be tested when the Eagles send Westbrook over the middle.The Eagles will use screen passes to Westbrook in an attempt to diffuse the Falcons’ pressure. When Westbrook lines up as a receiver, 34-year-old running back Dorsey Levens will look to exploit the holes on the left side of the Atlanta line. With defensive end Brady Smith as the weak link in their run defense, Atlanta was the worst team in the NFL preventing runs to the left this season. That’s where Philadelphia’s blocking is the strongest thanks to veteran tackle Tra Thomas and talented young guard Artis Hicks.SPECIAL TEAMSAtlanta’s Allen Rossum averaged more than 50 yards per punt return last week, including a 68-yard touchdown, but his skills will be greatly neutralized by the NFL’s best all-around kicking game. A close game will favor Philadelphia because Atlanta’s Jay Feely is a below-average field goal kicker who is used to kicking in a dome, while Philly’s David Akers excels in all weather conditions.OUTLOOKIf this were a seven-game series, it would be almost impossible to imagine Philadelphia losing. But Atlanta has a reasonable chance to win a single game, and despite their southern origin, snow may actually help their run oriented strategy. One great play can turn a game, and Michael Vick is famous for great plays.On the other hand, the Eagles will probably be so far ahead by the time Vick makes the highlight reels that it won’t even matter. Curses be damned: It would take a much more complete team than these Falcons to keep Philadelphia from its long-awaited Super Bowl appearance.Pick: EaglesMr. Schatz is the editor in chief of Football Outsiders. Michael David Smith and Ryan Wilson provided extra research for this article. For more state-of-the-art football content, please visit www.footballoutsiders.com.

After Three Misfires, Eagles’ Time Has Arrived

After Three Misfires, Eagles’ Time Has Arrived

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