After Trade, Raptors Avoid Following Carter South
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For Knicks fans of a certain vintage, the term “addition by subtraction” brings back fond memories. It recalls the 1968 trade of Walt Bellamy to Detroit for Dave DeBusschere, a move that improved the Knicks at forward and allowed Willis Reed to take over the center position. The solidified lineup went on to win two titles in the next five seasons.
It’s far too early to forecast titles, but last month’s trade of Vince Carter to the Nets may be a classic example of addition by subtraction – for Toronto, that is. The deal marked a significant turning point for the Raptors, who have been adrift since reaching Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals four years ago.
The conventional wisdom on the Carter trade was that the Raptors received three singles for a ten in a deal that brought two first-round draft picks, journeymen front liners Eric Williams and Aaron Williams, and the headache known as Alonzo Mourning to Toronto. But the Raptors’ record argues otherwise.
The team has won six of its eight games in 2005, including big wins over Sacramento and Minnesota. In their 14 games without Vinsanity on the court, the Raptors have gone 7-7. Treading water may be nothing to write home about, but for Toronto it’s a reversal of fortune. They’ve lost 58 and 49 games in the past two seasons, respectively, and were 8-17 at the time of the deal.
In fact, their record since the trade is better than that of their four division rivals – yet another indicator that the Atlantic Division won’t be won by one team but rather lost by the other four.
The Carter trade began a long-overdue roster overhaul, but to the Raptors’ credit, they had new cornerstones ready to be put in place. With Carter gone and high-priced swingman Jalen Rose playing reduced minutes, the Toronto offense has hinged on power forward Chris Bosh and shooting guard Morris Peterson.
Bosh, who made the All-Rookie team last year, has continued to improve this season. His 14.5 points and 8.1 boards per game have been buoyed by an especially strong January, during which he’s averaged 20.5 and 12.1 while shooting 53.9%.
Peterson started slowly after replacing Carter as the team’s main perimeter option, but he has acclimated to his new role. In January, he’s shot 49.5% from the field and 48.8% from behind the arc while compiling 19.8 points in 37 minutes per game.
The performances of Bosh and Peterson highlight the Raptors’ offensive revival. Under Kevin O’Neill last season, Toronto played at a tortoise-like pace of 88.8 possessions per game and finished 29th in the league in offensive efficiency at 95.5 points per 100 possessions. This season’s squad, coached by Sam Mitchell, looks like the high-flying Suns by comparison. They are averaging 95.9 possessions per game, with the increased tempo matched by an improved offensive efficiency of 102.2 points per 100 possessions, good for 13th in the league.
The Raptors’ offensive improvement has been offset somewhat by a decline in defensive intensity, however. Last year’s team finished seventh in the league by allowing only 98.4 points per 100 possessions, while this year’s team is 24th in defensive efficiency at 103.9.
The primary culprit is the Toronto interior defense. According to www.82games.com, the Raptors are allowing opposing pivotmen a Player Efficiency Rating of 18.1, which means a composite of their opposing centers would be a prime candidate for the All-Star team. (PER is a stat developed by John Hollinger to assess the sum of player’s contributions on a per-minute basis; the league average is 15.0, and with so few good pivotmen in the league these days, only seven in 2003-04 topped 18.)
The cause is playing Bosh, a 6-foot-10 string bean at center, where he gets out-muscled near the rim. His length, an effective tool against power forwards, is muted against the bigger centers. To counter this, Mitchell has found more minutes for first rounder Rafael Araujo, but the rookie’s game is still raw.
Mitchell will have to be creative in his use of personnel because the team’s third best player, Donyell Marshall, is, like Bosh, best suited for power forward. Their best bench player, Matt Bonner, is also a four.
On the bright side, the Raptors now have a clear picture of their strengths and weaknesses. Both Bonner and Marshall are free agents at the end of the season, which makes them prime sweeteners as the team attempts to trade Rose, who has two full seasons left on his unwieldy contract. In addition, the team has multiple first round picks coming up from the Carter trade. New GM Pete Babcock has a mixed track record, but he doesn’t need to be Joe Dumars to continue the revival.
If Peterson and Bosh continue to improve, and if they can swing a good deal near the February 24 trade deadline, then the Raptors will be able to contend for a division title this season. The competition isn’t formidable, of course: The Nets are finished, the Knicks are in freefall, the Celtics are feuding, and the Sixers have been spinning their wheels all year.
Going into tomorrow night’s game with the Knicks, Toronto is a mere 2.5 games out of first place. I would imagine that every hoops fan in Ontario relishes the thought of making the postseason while Vince Carter, a player who went out of his way to alienate the fan base there, watches the games from home.