After Two Blowouts, Expect a Barnburner in the Final
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The performance by the Kansas Jayhawks in the first 12 1 /2 minutes of Saturday’s game may have been the most impressive showing by any team all season. Jayhawk ballhawks repeatedly turned over North Carolina ball handlers. Unleashed on the break, Kansas attacked the rim, nailing nearly every shot. By the time Roy Williams called time out with 7 minutes 32 seconds to go before halftime, the Jayhawks were up an unfathomable 38–12.
As the dejected Tar Heels shuffled back to the bench, CBS’ notoriously crusty color commentator Billy Packer surveyed the scene, took a breath, and made his declaration: “It’s over,” he said flatly. I’d say, conservatively, that I’ve watched at least a couple thousand college basketball games in my lifetime. In all those games, I can’t remember ever hearing an announcer say “It’s over” in a basketball game with 7:32 to go in the first half. Not in a meaningless November non-conference game, nor in a lopsided mismatch of David vs. Goliath opponents. And certainly not in the Final Four, when the team declared dead in the water was the mighty North Carolina Tar Heels.
With one more opponent to go tonight in Memphis, the question becomes, which Kansas team will show up? If the Jayhawks duplicate the effort that earned them that monster lead, they’ll beat anyone, including the equally talented and dangerous Memphis Tigers. But if Kansas goes into letdown mode, all bets are off. As Saturday’s game wore on, the Jayhawks started forcing bad shots and lost both the hustle and execution that had carried them early on. North Carolina sliced the lead from 28 all the way down to four with 11 1/2 minutes left in the second half, before another Kansas surge secured the game.
The Jayhawks will need a team effort to beat Memphis. On Saturday against North Carolina, Kansas got contributions from multiple sources: six combined steals by starting guards Russell Robinson and Mario Chalmers, nine rebounds and four blocks from starting big man Darrell Arthur, 12 points on 5-for-6 shooting in just 17 minutes from sidekick Darnell Jackson, and eight points, seven rebounds, four blocks and a legion of hustle plays from freshman Cole Aldrich.
But the star of the night was Brandon Rush. The junior swingman was a terror in transition. Rush scored 25 points all told, missing just one shot all game inside three-point range, his performance consisting of an array of fast breaks, layups, alley-oop dunks and put-backs. He could be a difference maker in the championship game tonight too.
Even if they’re firing on all cylinders, though, Kansas will have a tough time dealing with Memphis. Against an experienced, savvy UCLA team, the Tigers imposed their will. Memphis repeatedly pushed the ball on the Bruins, letting Chris Douglas-Roberts (28 points) and company score on the run. Memphis’s bigger guards frequently scored over smaller defenders. On defense, the Tigers were even more impressive, denying entry passes to Kevin Love and forcing secondary contributors to try to beat them — in vain, as things turned out.
Memphis should again have a size advantage in the backcourt against Kansas. The 6-foot-6-inch Rush should be as a tough a matchup as Douglas-Roberts will have seen all year, on both ends of the floor. But Derrick Rose and Antonio Anderson figure to have an edge of several inches each on Kansas’ Robinson and Chalmers. Rose in particular could give Kansas fits. The freshman sensation potted 25 against UCLA, taking the smaller Darren Collison inside and scoring in traffic. The Jayhawks could be similarly powerless to stop him. If Kansas puts Rush on Rose, that leaves Douglas-Roberts free to score on drives to the hoop against smaller defenders. When 5-foot-11-inch Sherron Collins is on the court, the size disparity will be even more pronounced.
The Jayhawks would be well served to pursue the strategy they deployed against North Carolina in the halfcourt set: Throw the ball inside and let their big men operate. Joey Dorsey is a strong defender who’s tough to beat when his head’s in the game. But Robert Dozier and Shawn Taggart lack that defensive pedigree and could themselves be vulnerable to lob passes and post ups by Arthur and Jackson, as well as solid reserve Sasha Kaun. On defense, Kansas might want to consider playing some zone to take away Memphis’ driving lanes and size advantage at guard, forcing them instead to shoot jump shots, which aren’t the Tigers’ forte.
In other words, this game could go right down to the wire. After two semifinal games that ended as blowouts, we’re due for a thriller.
Mr. Keri (jonahkeri@gmail.com) is a writer for ESPN.com’s Page 2.