Prior to Opening Day, most analysts chose the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Indians as the probable division winners in the AL Central. The Tigers were the trendy pick due to their improved offense and busy off-season, while the Indians were the defending champions. Although the battle for first place may ultimately come down to these two clubs, their early struggles have opened the gates for the rest of the division to garner some attention.

The White Sox stand atop the division because they’re doing the simple things — they’re second in the league in runs scored and have allowed the fewest runs. Despite Mark Buehrle’s awful work in the early going — 13.9 hits allowed per nine innings and a 5.96 ERA — the Sox have succeeded on the mound thanks to strong starts from John Danks and Gavin Floyd, as well as last year’s Value Over Replacement Pitcher (VORP) team leader, Javier Vázquez. Vázquez is no surprise, as he has been one of the game’s better pitchers at different times during his career. Danks is a former top prospect from the Rangers’ system, and although he struggled in his first full season in the majors last year, he’s come on strong early on this year thanks to the addition of a new cutter that he uses often, and well. Floyd’s peripherals — a .135 Batting Average on Balls in Play, 4.7 strikeouts per nine innings, and 3.7 free passes per nine — make him a sketchy bet for continued success.

The real surprise for the White Sox, however, has been how effectively the offense has been leading the charge. This is the area that should have White Sox fans worried in the weeks and months to come: Yes, Jermaine Dye (.344 AVG/.403 OBA/.563 SLG in 72 plate appearances) and Jim Thome (.222/.319/.524 in 72 PA) have been great hitters in the past, but the chances that someone like A.J. Pierzynski is going to continue to hit .339/.393/.554 when that dwarfs his performance over the previous three seasons (.272/.317/.420 from 2005-07) are somewhere between slim and nonexistent. Joe Crede’s slugging percentage is roughly 100 points higher than that of his most optimistic Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA forecast, and though he’s a better bet to outperform his projection than Pierzynski, he’s far from a sure thing. When the offense really starts settling in toward more normal production, the White Sox will fall to the middle of the pack.

The Kansas City Royals are actually the safer bet to remain near the top of the division as the season drags on. Currently 9-10 and tied for second, the Royals boast a strong rotation, an excellent bullpen, and an intriguing offense. While there are holes in the offense — most notably shortstop Tony Pena (.120/.135/.140 so far) — the slugging duo of Alex Gordon and Billy Butler should inspire hope in Royals fans. After a slump-filled rookie campaign, Gordon has found his stroke in early April, hitting .315/.351/.507 in 77 PA. Butler has yet to find his power, but the only player on the roster potentially better than Gordon at the plate has hit .324/.380/.423. After that pair, there are other offensive stalwarts who aren’t yet shining as well as they might.

In the outfield, Jose Guillen (.173/.205/.307) won’t be this unproductive all season, and Mark Teahen, even without major power potential, has his uses thanks to his consistently good on-base percentage. Center fielder David DeJesus has missed significant time early on thanks to an ankle injury, but he’s an improvement offensively from Joey Gathright. Essentially, the Royals lineup will be only as good as Gordon and Butler make it, with everyone else around the average or below it.

So far, the Royals have excelled on the mound, thanks to Zack Greinke — currently third among starters in VORP — and Brian Bannister (8.1 VORP). Greinke was a top-tier pitching talent prior to the personal problems that kept him from the game for most of 2006, but he has pitched effectively so far, albeit with fewer strikeouts than normal. Once those strikeouts come back — he’s currently at 4.7 per nine, against last year’s 7.8 mark — they should offset any of the luck with balls in play that he has had in the early going.

Brian Bannister is a sabermetrician’s best friend on the mound. The son of former major leaguer Floyd Bannister, Brian has shown advanced knowledge of statistics, which he uses to help him succeed despite less-than-stellar stuff. A bit more questionable in terms of value is veteran Gil Meche, who has seen his homer and walk rates rise from last year’s improvements. It’s early yet, of course, but if he can get his walk rates under control again, he’ll be at least an average starter for the Royals.

Luke Hochevar is the real wild card in the rotation; the 25-year-old struggled in Triple-A last year, and was blasted in his first start this year. If he can harness the ability that made him the first overall pick in the 2006 amateur draft, he could strengthen the back end of the rotation; he’s certainly a better candidate for that than the recently released Hideo Nomo.

While neither of these teams stack up against the Tigers or Indians, they are both equipped with enough good players, young and old, to make them interesting teams to watch. The White Sox need more bats if they want to contend, but as of now there is not much they can do about that — third baseman Josh Fields’s line is .254/.323/.356 in Triple-A, and he’s the best hitter left in the upper levels of the system. Nevertheless, the Sox have an intriguing rotation that could take them places in the future, especially if Floyd figures himself out. Although the Royals have an excellent front duo in their rotation, they need Hochevar to adjust to the majors quickly while they also hope that Meche takes turns and that journeyman Brett Tomko doesn’t implode. Combine that with a lineup that at best will probably only be league average, and you see what kind of problems may arise. While both teams give you reasons to watch — Danks, Bannister, Greinke, and Gordon, to name a few — neither should end up in front of the Tigers or Indians come October.

Mr. Normandin is a writer for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art commentary, visit baseballprospectus.com.