The claim is that this is the “speed” series, because both teams have reputations for manufacturing runs with their speed. But the White Sox put up 24 runs in their three-game sweep of Boston in the ALDS, and the Angels didn’t really do the little things all that well in their sloppy series against the Yankees. But after last night’s 3-2 loss in Game 1, it’s the Sox who will need to find every little advantage they can. Here’s an in-depth look at how the remainder of the series should play out. The players are rated in Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), Baseball Prospectus’s measure of how much better, in runs, a player was over a freely available replacement at his position.

The Angels aren’t a great lineup, but the decision to stay with the familiar semi-famous veterans seems especially unfortunate when it means relying upon less-than-mediocre hitters like Erstad and Finley. It gets worse when you consider that Rivera’s a fine defensive ability gets wasted in the DH slot. The Angels do have speed, however, especially with Figgins (MLB’s stolen base leader) leading off. Happier still, Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynski threw out only 22% of base stealers, so the Angels will likely be off to the races. But other than Guerrero’s power to drive any pitch out of any park, this is a lineup that relies a lot on getting balls in play and hoping they drop in, and the White Sox were the second-best team in all of baseball in converting balls in play into outs.

Manager Mike Scioscia is making it easier on opposing pitching by keeping Kotchman on the bench, but it does notionally give the Angels a game-breaking bat off of the bench. Quinlan will start against lefty Mark Buehrle, with Figgins moving into center field and Finley going to the bench, but Scioscia gave little indication of any greater ambitions for his bench in the ALDS. As a group, don’t expect to see them used any more than sparingly.

The pity is what could have been. Santana tossed a complete game shutout against the Sox, and Colon and Lackey both handled them well this year. The one pitcher who really struggled against Chicago’s right heavy lineup was the left-handed Washburn. With Colon off the ALCS roster and Washburn still recovering from a throat infection, a very good rotation on paper becomes a collection of questions. Can Lackey make a second consecutive start on three days’ rest? Will Washburn get better? Will young Santana rise to the occasion again the way he did against the Yankees? Ad hoc arrangements in your pitching staff are always to be avoided. The Angels can’t avoid them.

The Angels don’t carry a situational lefty, but that’s not a handicap against a White Sox team that doesn’t boast game breaking lefty hitter in its lineup. So instead, Scioscia can rely on the group of relievers he’s been successful with all season. Escobar’s return from injury is key, in particular because it gives the Angels five relievers with the talent and durability to toss multiple innings; instead of pursuing matchups, it’ll be the more old-fashioned matter of using the best guys in the most important situations. Donnelly, however, has been shaky since he was caught cheating, and Gregg hasn’t been reliable enough to be used for much more than long relief or mop-up, so the Angels will have to rely on K-Rod, Shields, and Escobar to hold the leads they’re given.

The White Sox talk a lot about “Smart Ball”, but it’s a program with limited applications, and really only means that manager Ozzie Guillen is pretty free-wheeling with Podsednik and Iguchi, and that he might be willing to bunt with anybody. This becomes even less of a factor when you consider that the Angels have a pretty good infield defense, and their catcher, Bengie Molina, does a great job of shutting down the running game.

The White Sox’ success has more to do with pitching and defense than it does with offensive shenanigans. If anything, they score runs when their right-handed power hitters take advantage of U.S. Cellular’s short porch in left field. What the Sox won’t be able to afford is for Pierzynski (1-for-26) and Everett (5-for-32) to disappear in this series the way they did against the Angels earlier this season.

It’s not a great bench, but Guillen uses it for specific purposes. Widger platoons with Pierzynski behind the plate, and will start against Washburn if he’s healthy enough to take the mound for the Angels. It’s unlikely that anyone else from this group will get to start a game, particularly since Ozzie seems comfortable relying on his regulars.

With Contreras having pitched well in Game 1 last night, the Sox are thrilled to have Buehrle start Games 2 and 6 (if necessary), especially when he might be the starter that the Angels lineup can do the least against. Garland and Garcia have each had their moments, though Garcia’s problems with throwing strikes to lefty hitters seems to have encouraged Guillen to see what Garland’s nice sinker will do against the Angels. That could be a mistake: Garland had a terrible start against the Angels in September, and has lost both games he’s pitched against them, while Garcia is 5-1 in eleven starts against the Angels over the last four seasons.

What all of the Sox starters have going for them is a very tight defense, the element of “smart ball” that gets undersold. All three starting outfielders cover a lot of ground, and the left side of the infield is among the best in the game.

Dustin Hermanson has been effective as a closer, but he’s also not going to keep the job when someone with Jenks’s overpowering stuff comes along. Having tied for the league lead, Guillen is likely to call for an intentional walk or two, and while that’s always a risk, it might be another way to bring the Angels to earth. Overall, this is a well-run pen, and Guillen is sensible in his recognition that while Hermanson and Politte got him here, they’re also not physically the pitchers that helped propel the White Sox to this series. Don’t be surprised if El Duque comes into another key spot, or if Guillen decides to let it ride should Cotts bring his best stuff to a particular game.

THE CALL

With U.S. Cellular being a great place to hit homers if you’re a right-hander, and the Angels coming in without rest and with a discombobulated setup in their rotation, don’t be surprised by a Game 2 blowout. Mike Scioscia’s decision to weaken his lineup by benching Kotchman also doesn’t bode well for the team. The Angels won’t be able to exploit the aggressive brand of baseball that has served them so well in the past against a Chicago team equipped with a very good rotation and pen and a great defense.

White Sox in six.

Ms. Kahrl is a writer for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art commentary, visit baseballprospectus.com.