All Roads Lead To Arizona

In some ways, the story of the 2007 NFL season is the same as that of the 2006 season. Most of the NFL’s truly good teams will fight for six playoff spots in the AFC, while a handful of mediocre NFC teams will sneak into the postseason. There was much movement in last year’s standings, as teams like New Orleans and the Jets came out of nowhere to make the playoffs. That probably means there will be significant movement in this year’s standings as well. Many teams — but not all — will rebound or relapse, closer to where they had been two years ago.The last few Super Bowls have all been won by teams doing things that most pundits thought could never be done. The 2004 Patriots won a third championship in an era that was supposed to be without dynasties. The 2005 Steelers won it all despite sneaking into the playoffs as the last seed. The 2006 Colts made a mockery of the idea that defense wins championships.This year, there’s one more “can’t be done” waiting to be done. Can a team from the lesser NFC possibly beat the best team from the dominant AFC in Super Bowl XLII in Phoenix?AFC EASTBUFFALO BILLSYOU KNOW The Bills had a fairly forgettable 7–9 season, although quarterback J.P. Losman saw significant improvement in his second year as the starter. Then came the off-season and massive changes on defense. The tea m’s two best defensive players, cornerback Nate Clements and linebacker London Fletcher-Baker, signed with other teams in free agency, and the Bills dealt away veteran linebacker Takeo Spikes.YOU DON’T KNOW Lee Evans is one of the best receivers in football. Evans caught 82 passes for 1,292 yards and eight touchdowns last year, and his 60% catch rate was excellent for a player who runs a lot of deep routes. Nearly all the best receivers in today’s NFL work in pairs: Harrison and Wayne, Johnson and Houshmandzadeh, Boldin and Fitzgerald, etc. Evans put up his outstanding numbers playing across from Peerless Price and his league-low 8.2 yards per reception.X-FACTOR How good is Fletcher-Baker’s replacement at middle linebacker, second-round rookie Paul Posluszny?Projected Finish: 6–10, ThirdMIAMI DOLPHINSYOU KNOW The Dolphins are left cleaning up the disaster left by Nick Saban’s aborted two-year NFL career. Their new quarterback, ex-Chiefs veteran Trent Green, missed half of last year with a concussion and did not play well after his return. He’s protected by one of the league’s worst offensive lines, now starting rookies at center and right guard.YOU DON’T KNOW Last year, Chris Chambers had one of the worst seasons by any wide receiver in the past decade. Dolphins quarterbacks threw to him 153 times, and Chambers only caught 59 balls, a catch rate of 39%. He can’t blame the quarterbacks, because the other Dolphins receivers combined for a catch rate of 63%. When Chambers did catch the ball, he averaged 11.5 yards per reception, two yards below the NFL average.X-FACTOR Age. Linebacker Zach Thomas is 34, defensive lineman Jason Taylor is 33, and Green is 37.Projected Finish: 4–12, FourthNEW ENGLAND PATRIOTSYOU KNOW Outside of Indianapolis and San Diego, it’s hard to find anyone who doesn’t consider New England to be this year’s Super Bowl favorite. The Patriots have the NFL’s longest streak of winning seasons (six) and shored up the two biggest weaknesses of the 2006 team by adding versatile veteran linebacker Adalius Thomas as well as wide receivers Randy Moss, Donte’ Stallworth, and Wes Welker.YOU DON’T KNOW A longtime NFL adage states that you build from the lines out, and continuity — particularly on the offensive line — is an important part of a winning football team. Despite all the big-name additions, the Patriots go into 2007 with the exact same starting offensive and defensive lines as a year ago.X-FACTOR Can aging veteran Rodney Harrison make it through the year without injury for the first time since 2004?Projected Finish: 12–4, FirstNEW YORK JETSYOU KNOW Written off by all the experts before the season even started, the Jets reversed after a 2–3 start and snuck up on the entire NFL by making the playoffs at 10–6.YOU DON’T KNOW The Jets ranked sixth in fewest points allowed, a ranking which shows why points allowed is a flawed way to measure defense. The Jets faced the fifth-easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the NFL. Their games were played at a slow pace, ranking 30th in the NFL in total drives by both teams. Jets opponents were below-average on field goals, kickoff distance, and defensive touchdowns — none of which had anything to do with the quality of the Jets’ defense. The much more accurate DVOA ratings ranked the Jets’ defense 26th.X-FACTOR Which unprepared replacement for departed left guard Pete Kendall will give up the inevitable sack that reinjures Chad Pennington’s shoulder: Jacob Bender or Adrien Clarke?Projected Finish: 8–8, SecondAFC NORTHBALTIMORE RAVENSYOU KNOW The Ravens defense returned to the top of the league, while veteran quarterback Steve McNair and head coach Brian Billick stabilized the offense. Through Week 6, the Ravens’ offense ranked 26th in DVOA. Billick fired offensive coordinator Jim Fassel and took over play calling, and for the rest of the year the Ravens’ offense ranked eighth in DVOA. In the playoffs, the offense returned to its early-year struggles, and the Ravens lost to Indianapolis. In the off-season, the Ravens had one big arrival (running back Willis McGahee, in trade) and two big departures (linebacker Adalius Thomas and right tackle Tony Pashos, in free agency).YOU DON’T KNOW McGahee is an upgrade on the broken-down Jamal Lewis, but he isn’t “the best running back in the NFL” as he famously declared two years ago. McGahee has yet to enjoy a season with more than four yards per carry, and his career DVOA rating is almost exactly average: -0.6%.X-FACTOR McNair is now approaching the age when even the best quarterbacks begin to lose their skills — and when the nagging injuries like those which have always troubled McNair begin to increase.Projected Finish: 10–6, Second (wild card)CINCINNATTI BENGALSYOU KNOW With a high-powered offense and pathetic run defense, the Bengals are Colts East. Like their rivals in Baltimore, the Bengals started last year slow (15th in offensive DVOA through Week 6) and finished strong (third in offensive DVOA after Week 6). Unlike last year, when quarterback Carson Palmer was still recovering from knee surgery, the Bengals won’t be slow out of the gate in 2007.YOU DON’T KNOW Cincinnati’s pass defense could be dramatically improved this year. Veteran cornerback Deltha O’Neal did not decline anywhere near as much as last year’s starting partner Tory James, who signed as a free agent with New England. Rookie Johnathan Joseph had taken over for James by the end of the year, and looks to build on his promising start, hopefully by catching interceptions instead of constantly dropping them. Rookie first-rounder Leon Hall could replace O’Neal in the starting lineup by midyear. Behind the corners, strong safety Madieu Williams is underrated, although veteran free safety Dexter Jackson has seen better days.X-FACTOR Offensive tackles Levi Jones and Willie Anderson are as important to the offense as Palmer or wide receiver Chad Johnson, and both spent the preseason struggling with injuries.Projected Finish: 9–7, ThirdCLEVELAND BROWNSYOU KNOW Cleveland stocked key offensive positions for years to come by taking tackle Joe Thomas and quarterback Brady Quinn in the first round of this year’s draft. Once again, the Browns are looking toward the future, and fans are forgiven for wondering if the future is ever going to bother showing up.YOU DON’T KNOW He may be an unknown who went undrafted out of Duquesne, but cornerback Leigh Bodden is one of the best in the league at his position. Two years ago, he was fifth in yards allowed per pass; last year, he was 24th despite struggling most of the year with an ankle injury.X-FACTOR Will recent high picks like cornerback Eric Wright and linebackers Kamerion Wimbley and D’Qwell Jackson develop into a defense that can take some of the load off Quinn’s shoulders in the coming years?Projected Finish: 5–11, FourthPITTSBURGH STEELERSYOU KNOW Pittsburgh’s attempt to defend its Super Bowl title was a mess from the moment Ben Roethlisberger crashed his motorcycle during the off-season. When Roethlisberger wasn’t off the field because of concussions and appendicitis, he was nowhere near the quarterback he had been his first two years, dropping from 8.9 yards to 7.5 yards per pass attempt and throwing more interceptions than he did in his first two seasons combined. Bill Cowher retired after the season, and the Steelers hired only their third head coach since 1969, former Minnesota defensive coordinator Mike Tomlin.YOU DON’T KNOW With Ken Whisenhunt now head coach in Arizona, Bruce Arians takes over as Pittsburgh’s offensive coordinator. Arians is talking about opening up the offense, passing more and using more four-wide receiver sets. However, that change already happened last year: The Steelers went four-wide on 23% of plays in 2006, the highest percentage in the NFL, and they went from passing on 34% of first downs in 2005 to passing on 46% of first downs in 2006.X-FACTOR How will Tomlin mesh the low-frequency blitzing Cover-2 philosophy of his previous defenses with the high-frequency blitzing and Cover-3 schemes favored by defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau?Projected Finish: 11–5, FirstAFC SOUTHHOUSTON TEXANSYOU KNOW After another unremarkable season, the Texans gave up on 2002 overall no. 1 pick David Carr and traded for a new quarterback, former Atlanta backup Matt Schaub. They still have a terrible offensive line, a terrible defense, and Andre Johnson, an excellent no. 1 receiver who somehow rises above it all.YOU DON’T KNOW The Texans are busy building a defensive juggernaut for the future. Nearly all their high draft picks over the past few years have been used on defensive players. They have three possible future All-Pros (end Mario Williams, tackle Amobi Okoye, and cornerback Dunta Robinson) and one guy who is already at that level, second-year middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans. Unfortunately, Williams and Okoye still have a lot to learn, and the other current starters on the Texans defense aren’t very good.X-FACTOR Schaub has received a lot of accolades for a guy with one regular-season start in his career.Projected Finish: 6–10, ThirdINDIANAPOLIS COLTSYOU KNOW Peyton Manning may be the greatest quarterback in NFL history, and he leads an unstoppable, multifaceted offense now bolstered by rookie slot receiver Anthony Gonzalez. The Colts’ defense gave up 5.33 yards per carry during the regular season — the worst figure in the NFL since the expansion 1961 Minnesota Vikings — but suddenly grew a backbone in the playoffs with the return of oft-injured safety Bob Sanders. The result was a Super Bowl title.YOU DON’T KNOW Which Colts defense is going to show up this year? The one from the regular season, or the one from the postseason? Confusing the question further is the fact that nearly half the starters on the defense will be different. Defensive tackle Booger McFarland had a season-ending injury in training camp and will be replaced by seventh-round rookie Ed Johnson. Cornerbacks Nick Harper and Jason David signed elsewhere, as did linebacker Cato June, and they’ll be replaced by last year’s second-stringers: Kelvin Hayden, Marlin Jackson, and Freddie Keaiho.X-FACTOR Can Sanders stay healthy, and can rookie left tackle Tony Ugoh possibly learn the complex Colts offense and replace the retired Tarik Glenn?Projected Finish: 10–6, Second (wild card)JACKSONVILLE JAGUARSYOU KNOW The Jaguars spent last year going up and down and up and down, ending up 8–8 after one of the least consistent seasons in NFL history. On the whole, the Jaguars had an excellent defense and running game. The passing game is still a problem. Recent first-round picks such as Matt Jones and Reggie Williams aren’t producing like first-round receivers are supposed to produce. Meanwhile, quarterback Byron Leftwich saw his development stalled by yet another injury, creating a quarterback controversy that pits Leftwich against backup David Garrard.YOU DON’T KNOW Nearly every indicator for the Jaguars is positive. A team that outscores its opponents by more than 100 points but goes 8–8 is almost always going to win more games the following year. Slow-paced offenses tend to be better the next year than fast-paced offenses, and the Jaguars had the slowest-paced offense since 1998. Teams with injuries at wide receiver and tight end tend to improve the following year. The Jaguars had the worst punting in the league and drafted a new punter. And on and on …X-FACTOR What made this team so inconsistent last year, and can it possibly be solved?Projected Finish: 11–5, FirstTENNESSEE TITANSYOU KNOW The Titans won six straight games near the end of the season, although they lost in the final week and missed the playoffs. Quarterback Vince Young won Rookie of the Year, thanks in large part to his fourthquarter heroics and highlight-reel scrambles.YOU DON’T KNOW The Titans will really miss suspended cornerback Adam “Pacman” Jones. Most cornerbacks struggle as they first get used to the NFL game, but in his sophomore year, Jones was probably the best cornerback in the NFL other than Denver’s Champ Bailey. Jones allowed only 5.4 yards per pass when he was in coverage, the best figure in the league. Fortunately for Tennessee, one of the players helping replace Jones is the underrated Courtland Finnegan, a 2006 seventh-round pick who ranked 14th in yards allowed per pass during his rookie season.X-FACTOR First-round pick Michael Griffin is switching from college safety to cornerback. Will he be successful, like Chicago’s Charles Tillman, or a total failure, like one-time New England defensive back Tebucky Jones?Projected Finish: 5–11, FourthAFC WESTDENVER BRONCOSYOU KNOW Theleague’s strongest secondary is even stronger now that the Broncos have ex-Lions cornerback Dre’ Bly alongside the best cornerback in football, Champ Bailey. On offense, the Broncos hope 2006 first-round pick Jay Cutler can improve in his first full year as Denver’s starting quarterback. Cutler will be protected by an offensive line that was one of the best for a long time, but began to show cracks last season. Left tackle Matt Lepsis missed half the year with a torn ACL. He’ll be back this year, but he’s 33, and center Tom Nalen is 36, so age is a concern.YOU DON’T KNOW Denver’s offense finished last in the league in first-quarter DVOA. Starting strong on offense is important for winning teams, because a team that scores early can establish the pace and spend the later part of the game running out the clock. Indianapolis, San Diego, Seattle, and New England have all ranked in the top five each of the past two seasons, combining for seven playoff appearances and eight winning seasons.X-FACTOR Can the defense possibly make up for the loss of veteran linebacker Al Wilson, released after he suffered a devastating injury near the end of last season?Projected Finish: 9–7, SecondKANSAS CITY CHIEFSYOU KNOW Despite yet another year of mediocre defense, the Chiefs rode workhorse running back Larry Johnson and his NFL-record 416 carries to a 9–7 record and a spot in the playoffs. After the season, left guard Will Shields retired, the second straight year the Chiefs line has lost a likely Hall of Famer (left tackle Willie Roaf retired before the 2006 season). Veteran quarterback Trent Green is also gone after a season that was half mediocre and half lost to a concussion.YOU DON’T KNOW When Green was out of the lineup last year, career backup Damon Huard played very well. In fact, on a per-play basis, Peyton Manning was the only quarterback to play better than Huard in 2006. Despite this performance, Huard went back to the bench when Green returned at midseason, then had to battle 2006 third-round pick Brodie Croyle for the starting job this preseason. He won the job, but the odds of a 33-year-old career backup suddenly turning into a top quarterback and then sustaining that level of play are remote.X-FACTOR Larry Johnson vs. the Curse of 370, the trend that has caused decline or injury to nearly every running back with more than 370 carries in a season with the exception of Eric Dickerson.Projected Finish: 5–11, ThirdOAKLAND RAIDERSYOU KNOW The 2006 Raiders were a joke. That’s not just a figure of speech; watching the Raiders offense literally caused football fans to burst out in laughter. The Raiders took LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell with the first overall pick, only to lowball him in contract talks, and he continues to hold out. Instead, the Raiders will start free agent Daunte Culpepper, who was terrible for last year’s Dolphins after coming back from knee surgery too early. Oakland has reasonable talent at the skill positions, particularly wide receiver Ronald Curry, but the offensive line is still abysmal.YOU DON’T KNOW Usually, when a 2–14 team leads the league in allowing the fewest passing yards, it is because their opponents are spending half the season running out the clock. However, Oakland’s defense actually was pretty good last year. When we look at the play-byplay, adjusting for opponent and the terrible field position their offense forced them to defend, DVOA lists the Raiders as fifth in pass defense and eighth in overall defense.X-FACTOR Does Culpepper have anything left?Projected Finish: 4–12, FourthSAN DIEGO CHARGERSYOU KNOW The Chargers are loaded with talent, including the best running back (LaDainian Tomlinson), best tight end (Antonio Gates), and best pass rusher (Shawne Merriman) in the league. They were the best team in the NFL during the regular season, outplayed the Patriots in the playoffs, but lost on a series of unlucky bounces. The Chargers fired Marty Schottenheimer despite the 14–2 record, and brought in Norv Turner (career record: 58–82–1) as their new head coach.YOU DON’T KNOW Last year, the Chargers’ vaunted defense turned to tissue paper near the goal line. DVOA ranked them 29th on passes in the red zone, and 32nd on runs. Red-zone stats are generally more consistent from year to year than other defensive numbers, a bad sign for the Chargers in 2007.X-FACTOR Norv Turner can’t possibly screw up a team with this much talent, right?Projected Finish: 10–6, FirstNFC EASTDALLAS COWBOYSYOU KNOW The 2006 Cowboys surged at midseason after replacing veteran quarterback Drew Bledsoe with unknown, undrafted Tony Romo, but lost in the first round of the playoffs after Romo botched the snap on a potential game-winning field goal. Bill Parcells re-re-re-retired, and the Cowboys brought in San Diego defensive coordinator Wade Phillips as head coach, specifically so Phillips could install his more-aggressive version of the 3–4 defense.YOU DON’T KNOW There are significant negative indicators on both sides of the ball. The offense was much better on third downs than on first and second downs last year, generally an indicator of decline the following year. The defense ranked fourth in DVOA through Week 11, but had the worst DVOA in the NFL from Week 12 on, and defensive decline late in the year generally carries over to the following season.X-FACTOR Which Romo is the real Romo? In his first six games, Romo completed 69% of his passes for 8.6 net yards per pass with five interceptions and two fumbles. In his final six games, including the playoff loss, he completed 60% of his passes for 6.5 net yards per pass, with eight interceptions and nine fumbles.Projected Finish: 8–8, ThirdNEW YORK GIANTSYOU KNOW The Giants are a mess. Their best player on offense retired, and their best player on defense threatened to join him. They have no left tackle and are stuck with out-of-position guard David Diehl trying to protect Eli Manning’s blind side. The secondary has huge holes. The head coach is a lame duck on a one-year contract who doesn’t seem to garner much respect in the locker room.YOU DON’T KNOW The chances of Amani Toomer rebounding from his poor, injury-shortened 2006 (360 yards, three touchdowns) are not good. Since 1978, 26 wide receivers have gained between 200 and 600 yards at age 32. The following year, these receivers averaged 272 yards and 1.7 touchdowns, and only five had at least 400 receiving yards.X-FACTOR How much will this team listen to Coughlin? If the Giants start slow, will New York see a replay of the 1996 Jets?Projected Finish: 5–11, FourthPHILADELPHIA EAGLESYOU KNOW Except for the aberration of a T.O.-ruined 2005, the Eagles have been the class of the NFC in the 21st century, going at least 10–6 in six of the past seven seasons. With very little roster turnover this off-season, and Donovan McNabb looking healthy in his return from ACL surgery, there’s no reason to believe 2007 will be any different.YOU DON’T KNOW The Eagles used their running game more after McNabb’s injury, and Brian Westbrook averaged more than five yards per carry, shattering his career high in rushing yards (1,217 vs. 812). According to Football Outsiders’ stats, only five running backs were more valuable on the ground, and only two were more valuable as receivers.X-FACTOR Linebackers. The Eagles cut locker room leader Jeremiah Trotter in the preseason and will have three new starters this year. 2006 fifth-round pick Omar Gaither moves from the outside to replace Trotter. 2006 third-round pick Chris Gocong is trying to make the huge leap from Division II defensive end to NFL outside linebacker and spent his whole rookie year on injured reserve. The one veteran starter is Takeo Spikes, acquired in a trade from Buffalo.Projected Finish: 12–4, FirstWASHINGTON REDSKINSYOU KNOW The Redskins struggled through a horrible 2006, battered by injuries on both sides of the ball. The offense never got used to the complicated playbook of new coordinator Al Saunders, and the defense completely collapsed, setting a modern NFL record by only producing 12 turnovers.YOU DON’T KNOW The Redskins had the worst third-down pass defense in the 11 years for which we have play-by-play breakdown, after ranking third in 2006. Two significant trends favor a big Washington rebound: Teams which are far worse on third down than they are overall tend to improve the following year, and teams which significantly decline on one side of the ball tend to bounce back a year later.X-FACTOR Like Matt Leinart in Arizona and Jay Cutler in Denver, quarterback Jason Campbell should improve in his second year as Washington’s starter. Will he improve enough to put Washington in the playoff race?Projected Finish: 9–7, Second (wild card)NFC NORTHCHICAGO BEARSYOU KNOW Chicago has had the NFL’s most dominant defense over the past two seasons, and one of the worst offenses.YOU DON’T KNOW Unless Chicago’s offense can improve significantly, the Bears can’t win the division without another year of transcendent defensive play, and that’s not very likely. In the salary cap era, it has been very rare for a defense to play at a dominant level for more than one year, and no defense has played at a dominant level for more than two years. The Bears also have depth issues, exposed last year when their defense declined after a Week 13 injury to defensive tackle Tommie Harris.X-FACTOR What can the Bears expect from quarterback Rex Grossman after one of the biggest individual second-half collapses in NFL history?Projected Finish: 9–7, Second (wild card)DETROIT LIONSYOU KNOW The Lions have a great passing game, adding second overall pick Calvin Johnson to play alongside All-Pro Roy Williams (coming off a 1,300-yard breakout season) and surprisingly skilled defensive back-turned-possession receiver Mike Furrey.YOU DON’T KNOW The Lions’ defense ranked 30th in DVOA last year, and it is hard to see things improving significantly after the Lions lost their two best defensive backs in the off-season. Cornerback Dre’ Bly went to Denver for running back Tatum Bell and right tackle George Foster; safety Terrence Holt signed with Arizona as a free agent. The Lions are playing a Tampa-style scheme with predominantly zone coverage, but they don’t have a great pass rush or great defensive backs, so opposing quarterbacks should be able to easily pick apart the holes in the zone.X-FACTOR Running back. Kevin Jones will be out for the first six weeks, recovering from surgery on a Lisfranc foot sprain. T.J. Duckett did nothing in Washington last year. Bell is actually a terrible fit for the pass-heavy Mike Martz offense; he’s been one of the worst pass-catching running backs in the league for three years, and he’s almost useless in blitz protection.Projected Finish: 6–10, FourthGREEN BAY PACKERSYOU KNOW Brett Favre will break Dan Marino’s career touchdown and yardage records by the end of the year, especially if he can spend more time building the confidence of his offensive teammates and less time whining to the press about their youth.YOU DON’T KNOW The Packers have a very good defense, which ranked sixth in DVOA last year, and it will lead them into the postseason in 2007. They have a young, maturing corps of linebackers, led by second-year standout A.J. Hawk. They have an underrated defensive line, with two well-rounded defensive ends (Cullen Jenkins and Aaron Kampman) who can play the run and the pass. The one worry is that their excellent cornerbacks may decline due to age; Al Harris is 33, while Charles Woodson is 31.X-FACTOR Rookie running back Brandon Jackson wasn’t nearly as well-regarded as his classmates Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch, but won the Green Bay starting job thanks to a good preseason and Vernand Morency’s constant injuries.Projected Finish: 10–6, FirstMINNESOTA VIKINGSYOU KNOW The old axiom that you win in the NFL by establishing the run and stopping the run is hogwash, and the 2006 Vikings are the ultimate proof. Minnesota was the first team since the 2000 Ravens to allow less than three yards a carry, while their offense had one of the best run-blocking lines in the league. They finished 6–10 because they couldn’t find a quarterback who could actually complete a pass.YOU DON’T KNOW Since 1997, only five quarterbacks have been chosen in the first two rounds of the NFL draft despite a collegiate completion percentage under 55%: Jim Druckenmiller, Ryan Leaf, Kyle Boller, Marques Tuiasosopo, and new Vikings starter Tarvaris Jackson.X-FACTOR When Jackson actually gets the ball to mediocre receivers like Troy Williamson and Bobby Wade, how often will they drop it?Projected Finish: 5–11, FourthNFC SOUTHATLANTA FALCONSYOU KNOW Michael Vick is going to jail.YOU DON’T KNOW This team’s problems go way beyond the loss of their somewhat-overrated franchise quarterback. New head coach Bobby Petrino needs larger linemen for his preferred blocking schemes. Highly-drafted receivers like Roddy White and Michael Jenkins aren’t developing. The defense has a lot of money tied up in a few veterans who are either in decline, like safety Lawyer Milloy, or stuck playing out of position like All-Pro outside linebacker (but mediocre inside linebacker) Keith Brooking. DeAngelo Hall is nowhere near as good as he thinks he is, but he’s the only Atlanta cornerback who can even be called average.X-FACTOR Like the 2004 Miami Dolphins after Ricky Williams retired, the psychological effect of losing Vick might hurt this team more than the actual on-field effect of losing Vick.Projected Finish: 5–11, FourthCAROLINA PANTHERSYOU KNOW The Panthers have star power in defensive end Julius Peppers and widereceiver Steve Smith. They also have quarterback controversy: Jake Delhomme is on the downside of his career and looking over his shoulder at former no. 1 overall pick David Carr, finally freed from the offensive line-challenged Houston Texans.YOU DON’T KNOW The biggest culprit behind last year’s disappointing 8–8 record was the offense’s complete inability to convert on third down. Although they ranked 19th in offensive DVOA, they were last on third downs. Normally this is a positive indicator for improvement the following season, but it seems clear this preseason that new offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson hasn’t changed Carolina’s ridiculous third-down habits, such as throwing three-yard passes with eight yards to go and emphasizing non-playmakers at fullback and tight end.X-FACTOR Health. The Panthers have trouble keeping their talented offensive and defensive linemen healthy, and middle linebacker Dan Morgan is always one hit away from the concussion that ends his NFL career.Projected Finish: 7–9, ThirdNEW ORLEANS SAINTSYOU KNOW The 2006 Saints engineered the greatest franchise reversal in NFL history, turning their record around from 3–13 to 10–6, saving the future of the franchise in Louisiana, and providing spiritual uplift for their hurricane-ravaged fans.YOU DON’T KNOW The Saints return 10 of 11 starters from last year’s spectacular offense, and that doesn’t count running back Reggie Bush, one of the most explosive players in the game. The only new starter, tight end Eric Johnson, is a significant upgrade on last year’s mediocre collection of tight ends.X-FACTOR Many of the Saints’ defensive players were playing far past their previous level of performance in 2006. The Saints set up like another recent year-after-miracle team: the 2000 St. Louis Rams, who continued to light up the scoreboard on offense but watched their defense completely collapse.Projected Finish: 10–6, FirstTAMPA BAY BUCCANEERSYOU KNOW The Bucs imploded last year, seemingly marking the end of the successful Tampa-2″ era that began when the Bucs hired head coach Tony Dungy and defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin in 1996. In the off-season, they released a number of declining veteran defenders, including Shelton Quarles and Simeon Rice.YOU DON’T KNOW There are a surprising number of positive indicators for Tampa Bay, starting with the expected rebound of a team that went from 11–5 to 4–12. Veteran quarterback Jeff Garcia is unlikely to play as well as he did for Philadelphia last year, but he’s a huge improvement on 2006 sixth-rounder Bruce Gradkowski. Defensive rookies usually improve a team more than offensive rookies, and the Bucs used six of their first seven picks on defensive players. The other was used on a much-needed guard, Arron Sears, who along with ex-Giants left tackle Luke Petitgout will improve Tampa’s offensive line.X-FACTOR Wide receivers. Joey Galloway is 36, Michael Clayton has been horrid for two years after his spectacular rookie year in 2004, Maurice Stovall is an unknown quantity, and David Boston is trying to return after barely seeing the field for three years — a return complicated further by a confusing DUI arrest where the breathalyzer test found no alcohol in Boston’s bloodstream.Projected Finish: 8–8, SecondNFC WESTARIZONA CARDINALSYOU KNOW For the second straight year, the Cardinals passed for plenty of yards, but couldn’t really do anything else. The high-profile signing of running back Edgerrin James was a disaster because the Cardinals line couldn’t block for him. After the season, the Cardinals fired Dennis Green and hired Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt as head coach. Whisenhunt brought along offensive line coach Russ Grimm and installed a Steelers-style 3–4 defense, turning Phoenix into Pittsburgh West.YOU DON’T KNOW Arizona’s run-blocking improved significantly in the second half of the year. Cardinals running backs averaged 2.8 yards per carry in the first eight games, 3.8 yards per carry in the last eight. Unfortunately, history shows that second-half improvement by an offensive line doesn’t actually carry over to the following year. Since 2000, the team with the biggest second-half improvement in run-blocking was … the 2005 Arizona Cardinals.X-FACTOR How will the Arizona defense adapt to playing a 3–4, especially now that Chike Okeafor, who was going to be featured at outside linebacker, is probably out for the season with a torn left biceps?Projected Finish: 6–10, FourthST. LOUIS RAMSYOU KNOW The St. Louis offense finally returned to glory in 2006. DVOA agrees with conventional wisdom , ranking them seventh on offense after four straight years rankedYOU DON’T KNOW With a couple of exceptions — defensive end Leonard Little, kicker Jeff Wilkins — the Rams’ defense and special teams are hideous Three of the team’s top four tacklers in 2006 were defensive backs, which is not a good sign. The Rams have awful kickoff and punt coverage and new re turn man Dante Hall is coming off two down years in Kansas City.X-FACTOR Health. The only major player to suffer an injury in 2006 was left tackle Orlando Pace, and the offense declined precipitously after he left the line up. The chances of the team staying that healthy again are small, especially with star receiver Torry Holt now suffering from the nagging injuries that hit all NFL players in their 30s.Projected Finish: 7–9, ThirdSAN FRANCISCO 49ERSYOU KNOW The 49ers are a hot pick this year. The offense features Frank Gore, who set the all-time franchise rushing yardage record last year; tight end Vernon Davis, who should improve significantly from his injury-plagued rookie season, and Darrell Jackson, a top receiver with an axe to grind against the team that traded him away, division rival Seattle. On defense, the 49ers made a number of free agent moves, led by signing cornerback Nate Clements to the richest defensive contract in NFL history.YOU DON’T KNOW The 49ers finished 7–9 last season thanks to an easy schedule and a lot of luck. They ranked 28th in the NFL in DVOA and were outscored by opponents 412–298. They could significantly improve, thanks to maturing young talent and a strong off-season, and still end up with the same record.X-FACTOR After a horrible rookie season and a mediocre sophomore year, will former top overall pick Alex Smith finally fulfill some of his potential in 2007?Projected Finish: 8–8, SecondSEATTLE SEAHAWKSYOU KNOW With 2005 MVP Shaun Alexander and quarterback Matt Hasselbeck felled by injuries, the Seahawks offense struggled, and the defending NFC champions barely snuck into the playoffs by winning a weak division.YOU DON’T KNOW The real problem in Seattle was not the injuries to Alexander and Hasselbeck, but injuries elsewhere. All-World left tackle Walter Jones was not himself all year after suffering a nagging ankle injury on opening day, and was still the only lineman healthy enough to start all 16 games. The run defense collapsed when defensive tackle Marcus Tubbs could only play five games, and the secondary was so damaged by January that the Seahawks were starting guys in the postseason who had not played in the NFL all year.X-FACTOR Veteran fullback Mack Strong was a big part of making those holes for Alexander in 2005, but he was terrible in 2006 despite being one of the few Seahawks to stay healthy. Can he rebound or be sufficiently replaced by the promising Leonard Weaver?Projected Finish: 8–8, FirstSTATISTICAL TERMINOLOGYDVOA: Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, which takes every play in the NFL and compares it to a league average based on situation and opponent. A positive DVOA represents more scoring, so a good defense will be negative.PREDICTIONSSUPER BOWLPatriots over Eagles MVP Frank Gore (SFO)ROOKIE OF THE YEARMarshawn Lynch (BUF)DEF. ROOKIE OF THE YEARJamaal Anderson, (ATL)DEF. PLAYER OF THE YEARAaron Kampman (GB)RUSHING TITLEFrank Gore (SFO)RECEIVING TITLEMarvin Harrison (IND)PASSING TITLEPeyton Manning (IND)COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEARDonovan McNabb (PHI)

All Roads Lead To Arizona

All Roads Lead To Arizona

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