Already a Logjam at Top of the Polls
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Here we go again.
Just three weeks into the new college football season, the legions of crystal-gazers that double as the sport’s fan base are already anticipating — and decrying — the next controversy atop the Bowl Championship Series standings. Never mind that the first edition of those standings won’t be released for another four weeks.
The problem is that a quartet of contenders has begun to separate itself from the pack, but there is only one game between those teams remaining on the schedule (Florida at LSU), meaning three worthy teams could finish undefeated and one would have no chance at the national title.
Those four teams are LSU, Oklahoma, USC, and Florida. Each has authored statement victories this young season, the latter two doing so Saturday. USC went into a very hostile environment at Nebraska, at night, and walked out with a 49–31 win that was not as close as that score would suggest. During the competitive phase of the game, the score was 42–10. Florida, meanwhile, opened up its conference schedule by destroying Tennessee, 59–20, at home.
Of those top four, only Florida was a real question mark coming into the season. The Gators lost 14 starters from last year’s national champions. Among the replacements was quarterback Tim Tebow, who saw the field plenty as a freshman but rarely threw the ball. Three weeks in, Tebow has put any doubts to rest. He’s second in the nation in passing efficiency, completing nearly 74% of his passes, with eight touchdowns and just one interception.
What’s more, he’s proving to be every bit the rushing threat he was as a freshman, when he was deployed mostly as a short yardage runner. With Tebow fast becoming the elite dual-threat quarterback in college football, the Gators don’t suffer from the lack of a standout running back.
The authoritative victories by USC and Florida followed similar results a week ago from LSU, which destroyed Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma, which did the same to Miami. Just as was the case last week, when LSU gained on no. 1 USC in the polls, this weekend’s final scores opened the eyes of poll voters, as Florida moved up to a consensus no. 3 and USC gained back some of what it lost when the Trojans were idle last Saturday.
Perhaps the voters are learning. Florida’s move came at the expense of West Virginia, which fell a spot in each poll, to fifth. The Mountaineers are an excellent team and could well end up in the mix for a spot in the BCS title game, but they have yet to look dominant this season.
The human polls tend to suffer from the bad habit of anchoring a team to its ranking and refusing to drop anyone that wins. At least thus far this season, the voters seem to have done a better job of recognizing that not all victories are created equally.
Having LSU, USC , a n d Oklahoma in a potential logjam atop the polls has to bring back unpleasant memories for BCS officials, for it was those exact teams that gave the BCS its biggest headache yet. In 2003, USC finished atop both human polls but was third in the BCS standings. LSU beat Oklahoma for the BCS title, while USC won the AP crown after thumping Michigan in the Rose Bowl. It remains the only split championship in the BCS era.
Still, it is far too early to project three (or more) teams to finish undefeated. Beyond LSU-Florida, which is shaping up as one of the games of the year on October 6, USC must travel to both Oregon and Cal, while Oklahoma may have the easiest path of the top teams, but still has its annual showdown with Texas. And if West Virginia is to contend, it must survive a difficult round-robin against a much deeper Big East conference.
Trying to project season-long results in college football is normally a fruitless exercise, particularly in a year in which parity has crept into the game. The evidence of that is as plentiful as the number of games where heavily favored teams from the power conferences are forced to sweat out difficult wins over midmajor teams. Middling teams from the BCS leagues fare even worse. Just ask the Big Ten, which saw Minnesota fall to Florida International Saturday, and the Big 12, which had Oklahoma State lose to Troy on Friday.
No list of the season’s surprising developments could be complete without including Notre Dame. The school has a high-profile coach, a national television contract, and regular top-rated recruiting classes, yet fields what might be one of the absolute worst offenses in Division I-A, and a defense that’s not much better. If that can happen to Notre Dame, then it’s official: Anything is possible.
Mr. Levine is a writer for FootballOutsiders.com