Once every four years, one fortunate young woman becomes the Olympic figure skating champion. She isn’t always the favorite going in. She isn’t always the skater with the most consistent record. She’s the one with the guts to match – and maybe even exceed – her talent.

Tonight, as the focus in Turin shifts to the first of two parts of the ladies’ figure skating event, the short program, one woman fits that description better than any other competitor: Russia’s Irina Slutskaya.

Slutskaya, it has been said, is the kind of athlete who looks as if she’s never gotten a bad night’s sleep. Brimming over with self confidence, Slutskaya is a coach’s dream pupil: Just put her on the ice, and she’s ready to attack. She is famously competitive; one iconic image is that of a sniffling Slutskaya accepting a silver medal at the 2001 World Championships, looking positively indignant at finishing second.

Second is where Slutskaya finished in Salt Lake City four years ago, in one of the few performances of her career that showed any effect of nerves. There will be double the pressure in Turin, where Slutskaya has the chance – and the responsibility – to complete a Russian sweep of the four Olympic figure skating disciplines, a feat no nation has ever accomplished.

But the Slutskaya of today has more staying power than the Slutskaya who bent to Olympic pressure in 2002. She’s traveled a hard road to Turin. She missed the 2003 World Championships to be with her mother, who was suffering from kidney failure. The following year she was diagnosed with vasculitis, a chronic disease in which the blood vessels become inflamed, causing fatigue and swelling in the legs. She struggled even to compete in the 2004 season, dropping to ninth at the World Championships.

When Slutskaya finally regained her form in the fall of 2004, she exuded a formidable new strength. And indeed, Slutskaya, the 2005 World Champion, has dominated her sport for the past two seasons.

Slutskaya has to be considered the favorite in a ladies’ event stacked with talent. Yet for all her competitive drive and technical brilliance, Slutskaya is beatable. History tells us that Olympic champions in this age are young jumpers – 16-year-old Sarah Hughes, 15-year-old Tara Lipinski. At 27, Slutskaya is trying to match the record for the Olympics’ oldest ladies’ champion. That alone is grounds for questioning her chances.

So who can beat her? On paper, the most likely choice is American Sasha Cohen. Cohen, 21, is the most glorious artistic skater of any generation. Her skating is everything purists want – elegant, stunningly balletic. She’s also the only skater to post marks as high as Slutskaya’s under the sport’s new, number-crunching scoring system.

Having said that, Cohen has not beaten Slutskaya in the past two seasons. A lack of killer instinct has left Cohen with a closet full of silver medals. She is skating’s confirmed bachelorette – she just can’t seem to commit to a competition. Quite often, Cohen will be skating a program no other competitor can match when a sudden lapse of concentration forces a stumbles and mars the entire program.

This usually doesn’t happen in the short program, where you can expect Cohen to offer a solid routine. If she skates clean in the short program, watch her marks. If they’re within a few points of Slutskaya’s (or if she wins the short program), the judges are signaling their willingness to rank Cohen first overall.

What Cohen and Slutskaya probably won’t attempt in the short program is the hardest combination in ladies’ figure skating – the triple-triple combination. The triple-triple is optional, and few skaters will risk it in the short program. One of those who probably will chance it is dark horse Shizuka Arakawa of Japan. Arakawa, 24, is capable of astonishing results – as her World title in 2004 would attest – but she’s also capable of self-destructing (she was ninth at the next year’s Worlds).

Arakawa leads a deep Japanese team that will likely get one of its members onto the podium – if not Arakawa, then the two-time World bronze medalist Fumie Suguri, or the incredible jumper Miki Ando. So impressive is the Japanese team that it will probably outperform the American ladies – something that was unthinkable just four years ago.

As for the other two American ladies, by now no doubt you’ve heard of Emily Hughes, 17, otherwise known as “Sarah Hughes’s little sister,” otherwise known as “the girl who replaced Michelle Kwan.” What you may not realize is that no matter how well Emily skates, she doesn’t have the experience to be a medal contender in Turin.

The other American who could sneak onto the podium – though it’s unlikely – is 16-year-old Kimmie Meissner. Meissner hasn’t got the international credibility yet, but she does have plenty of great triple jumps (including two triple-triple combinations) and the best competitive mindset of any American skater in years.

The host Italians will be cheering for Carolina Kostner, 19, the surprise 2005 World bronze medalist who covers the ice like a speedskater and takes off like a high jumper. Kostner’s artistry isn’t as developed as her athleticism, but if she can skate clean (a big if), she has a great shot at a bronze medal.

With at least seven young women contending for three medals, each skater is looking for the opportunity to differentiate herself from the pack. Figure skating is a subjective sport, and it’s critical to be viewed by the judges as Olympic champion material. Sharp, tough under pressure, and vibrant – these are the qualities the eventual champion will show tonight. It’s a revealing sport. Put away the calculator and watch body language. See if you can spot the woman who would be queen.