It’s been nine years since the United States last won the Davis Cup, and one can fairly say that a victory this weekend over Spain – in Seville, on clay, with the largest crowd ever to watch a tennis match looking on – would be a startling achievement.

To win, the Americans will need to take three out of the five matches this weekend, four in singles and one in doubles. Two singles matches are scheduled for today – Andy Roddick against Rafael Nadal and Mardy Fish versus Carlos Moya – followed by doubles on Saturday and two reverse singles matches, which might be meaningless, on Sunday.

The 18-year-old Nadal is a lefty with a deadly forehand, and he’s flourished under the pressure of Davis Cup play. He won the deciding match for Spain against the Czech Republic in the first round, and clinched its semifinal victory over France with a straight-set win over Arnaud Clement.

In Nadal’s last meeting against Roddick, at the second round of the U.S. Open, the American won easily in straight sets. Roddick must produce a repeat performance, or else the Americans’ hopes will be dashed.

Unfortunately, Roddick is in a bit of a rut. He’s trying to play the net more frequently, but he continues to approach at less than perfect moments and make troubling errors on his volleys. On a hard court in Houston last month, Roddick looked thoroughly mortal when the steady Lleyton Hewitt beat him in straight sets. Hewitt’s blueprint was simple, and you can expect the Spaniards to follow it: Get Roddick’s serve in play, don’t try anything flashy, and make him hit as many balls as possible. To compound matters, Roddick has never fared well on slow European clay, losing in the first round of the French Open last year and in the second round this year.

His compatriot Fish lost his one match on clay this year, to Alex Bogomolov Jr. in Houston back in April. Moya, on the other hand, is a former French Open champion and a master of the tireless footwork and long topspin rallies that red clay demands.

No matter how one looks at it, the Americans’ chances are grim.

“They’ve won something like 11 straight matches at home,” said team captain Patrick McEnroe of the heavily favored Spaniards. “They’re very deep. The conditions are obviously going to be extremely slow. That’s what they’re doing to try to blunt our game.”

In doubles, at least, the U.S. has the upper hand. Twins Bob and Mike Bryan have won the French Open and have yet to lose in four Davis Cup matches. Still, they won’t have an easy time with Nadal and Tommy Robredo, who showed great spirit – and in Nadal’s case, great hands at the net – in a stir ring five-set semifinal win over France.

Beating Moya is not a realistic proposition for Roddick or Fish, but if it happens, Spain will begin to feel the pressure. A more plausible path to victory would involve Roddick beating Nadal and then the Bryans breaking Nadal’s confidence with a thrashing in doubles.

At that point, perhaps enough doubt will creep into Nadal’s mind to initiate his collapse against Fish. The Spaniards may also call upon 2003 French Open champion Juan Carlos Ferrero, who has been limited by injuries all season but could emerge to play a decisive match on Sunday. The Americans have Vince Spadea in reserve, but McEnroe has expressed confidence in Fish and seems unlikely to replace him with Spadea, who is con sidered a better clay court player.

If Ferrero is needed on Sunday, he’s unlikely to prove a pushover. In last year’s Davis Cup final, he lost two five set matches to Lleyton Hewitt and Mark Philippoussis in Australia. With Spain trailing 2-1 on the final day, Ferrero came back from two sets down – then lost the fifth set at love. As Ferrero faded, Philippoussis fought through a torn pectoral muscle that made it painful for him to serve. Ferrero, to say the least, would like to make amends.

All matches are best of five sets, unless the “tie,” as Davis Cup matches are called, has been decided. Weather forecasts call for temperatures in the 60s, and some 26,000 tickets have been sold.

At least the Americans know they are the underdogs here and should not feel the weight of expectation. If they can make it to Sunday with a lead, they’ll have a chance. And if they need inspiration, they need only recall 1995, when Pete Sampras won two singles matches and his doubles match with Todd Martin in a 3-2 victory over the favored Russian team. It all happened on clay.