Another Mediocre Swingman? Isiah Looks at the Short Term

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The New York Sun

The Knicks’ signing of Washington Wizard swingman Jared Jeffries to an offer sheet has all the hallmarks of the Isiah Thomas regime: Taken in isolation, the deal looks great, but when examined more closely, warts begin to appear. However, if everything breaks the Knicks’ way, this is a positive move for the short term.

The Knicks inked Jeffries, a restricted free agent, to a five-year, $30 million pact, and the Wizards will have seven days to either match the offer or allow Jeffries to star in a press conference at

Madison Square Garden. Although Washington chairman Abe Pollin, president Ernie Grunfeld, and coach Eddie Jordan have all made noise about wanting to keep Jeffries, there are also solid signs that they may let him go. The Knick contract, unlike a richer deal offered by the Wizards, includes a hefty bonus if Jeffries is traded, a likelihood given his abilities, and it calls for most of his annual salary to be paid upfront, a dangerous precedent for any employer (this also holds true of the Knicks, but they have committed so many questionable business moves that one more won’t really affect anything).

Jeffries is a player with an odd skill set. The Indiana University product is 6-foot-11,but he plays on the perimeter. Unlike other big men with that tendency — think Toni Kukoc, Peja Stojakovic, and Hedo Turkoglu — Jeffries is a solid defender.In fact, his perimeter defense is the only thing keeping him in the league. He’s not much of a rebounder at 4.9 a game; he doesn’t block shots (0.6 a contest), and despite playing in an uptempo offense featuring all-stars Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison, Jeffries is a mediocre finisher, averaging only 6.4 ppg and shooting only 45.1% from the floor.

Yes, if you’re thinking that $30 million should buy you more in the free agent market, you see why analysts generally scorn the notion of using that kind of money on role players.Scarcity drives up prices on marginal players well beyond reason. According to the Fair Salary calculations at www.82games.com, Jeffries should be making about $2.4 million a season, less than half of what he will make next year.

Knicks fans would be better advised to focus on what Jeffries does do, which is play defense on the wings. His length and quickness harasses opposing small forwards, denying them the ball and keeping them from driving. Although Washington was a weak defensive team last season — allowing 107.5 points per 100 possessions, 23rd in the league — the production of the Wizards’ opposing small forwards was a little below league average, a composite Player Efficiency Rating of 14.8, which was mostly due to Jeffries’s defense.

The Knicks used a motley crew of players at small forward last season, including Quentin Richardson, Qyntel Woods, Jalen Rose, David Lee (really a backup power forward), and even guard Jamal Crawford. None of these guys were stellar defenders (Trevor Ariza might be considered one, but he was run into Larry Brown’s doghouse early in the season and run out of town at the trade deadline). Opposing small forwards posted a 16.8 PER against Knick defenders, or put into more palpable terms, they put up 20.4 a game compared with 15 a game for the New York players — the worst net loss on a team loaded with red ink in plus–minus categories. Jeffries’s upside is rather limited, but he fills a void from last year’s roster.

The problem with this signing is that first-round draft pick Renaldo Balkman is also supposed to fill that gap. How many non-scoring, “energy guys” do you need? This signing makes using the draft pick on Balkman look that much more curious, and it looks again as if there isn’t a plan in place. By the second year of his contract, Jeffries’s skills may be duplicated by a much younger and cheaper player.

Then there’s a small concern about the length of the contract. Jeffries turns 25 just before training camp opens in the fall, and his skills are premised on athleticism.That’s usually the first aspect of a player’s game to decline. Without it, he’s not much of a player.The Knicks are severely capped out until the summer of ’09, but they won’t have any flexibility even if they load the end of their bench with guys making the full midlevel exception like Jeffries and Jerome James.

The biggest upside to this deal is what it does for next season: it guarantees the Knicks a good perimeter defender in the starting lineup and removes one from a rival.Right now, barring a spate of major injuries, seven of the eight Eastern Conference playoff spots are set. Miami, New Jersey, and all five Central Division teams look primed for a postseason return. Standing between the Knicks and the no. 8 seed are Washington, Orlando (the thinking fan’s choice), and Boston. The signing of Jeffries makes the Knicks that much more likely to be in the playoff hunt, and if they are, it will guarantee Isiah’s job for another season or two. That’s probably not what Knicks fans want to hear, but it’s the primary upside of this move.Why else spend $30 million on a marginally talented player?


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