Are the First-Place Clippers Actually for Real?
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Break up the Clippers!
Four games into the season, I must report with great shock that the Clippers — a team I predicted would tie for the worst record in basketball — stand alone atop the Western Conference with a 4–0 record. They are the second-highest scoring team in the league, have the best average victory margin in the conference, and have already won twice on the road.
In short, a team I and most other analysts expected to be really, really bad has so far been incredibly good. And with the Clippers in a showdown tonight with Detroit, where they’ll look to go 5–0 and get their third straight road win, it’s time to start asking if these guys are for real.
Looking at the schedule, it’s obvious they’ve benefited from some easy pickings thus far. Wednesday’s win over Indiana was the first time they’d beaten a team that’s actually won a game, and two of the Pacers’ three wins had themselves come against the league’s winless. Indy’s other victim was Memphis, whose lone win came against Seattle … who is winless.
Seen from that perspective, it looks like a case of the weak beating up on the weaker. According to USA Today’s Jeff Sagarin, the Clips have played the league’s easiest schedule thus far, so perhaps we should take L.A.’s undefeated mark with a large grain of salt.
Additionally, even if the Clippers were for real, they suffered some losses on Tuesday that may limit them in the near future. Scorching-hot guard Cuttino Mobley suffered a strained abuctor and will miss the next few games, while forward Ruben Patterson dislocated a finger in the same contest.
But let’s not rain on the parade quite yet. Instead, let’s fill in the rest of the backstory and ponder how improbable L.A.’s unbeaten start is. Last season, the Clippers weren’t a particularly good team, going 40–42 to narrowly miss out on a playoff spot.
Expectations were even lower heading into this season. Their best player, power forward Elton Brand, will miss most or all of the season after tearing his Achilles in an off-season workout. The guards, 37-year-old Sam Cassell and 32-year-old Mobley, inspired little confidence that they could increase their output from a year ago. The rest of the roster seemed to be the usual collection of castoffs and drifters we’ve come to expect from a team with the word “Clippers” on the front of their jersey.
Moreover, the Clippers were one of the league’s lowest-scoring teams a year ago. L.A. ranked 21st among the league’s 30 teams in offensive efficiency, my measure of a team’s points scored per 100 possessions. With Brand out of the picture and the guards not getting any younger, one figured they’d be one of the league’s two or three worst teams in that category.
What’s happened thus far has been pretty much the exact opposite. Cassell turned back the clock and torched Indiana for 35 points on Thursday — matching his season high from a year ago — and on the season has pumped in 63 points in just 97 minutes. Mobley also began the year on fire, scoring 33 in a surprising win at Chicago and averaging 23.3 points per game before checking out after five minutes with his injury against Indiana.
It’s not just the guards either — some other holdovers have played unusually inspired basketball too. Start with center Chris Kaman, who was a huge disappointment last year after signing in a five-year, $50 million contract extension. He’s in vastly better shape for this go-round and has been an absolute beast on the boards, pulling down 22 against Indiana and leading the league with 16.5 a game overall. Kaman has also been more active defensively with Brand out of the picture, covering opponents’ top post threats and helping shut down Indy’s Jermaine O’Neal on Tuesday.
Then there’s that monument to underachievement named Tim Thomas, whom locals will fondly remember for calling out Kenyon Martin as a fraud in one of the great pot-accuses-kettle moments in league history. He’s come out looking unusually frisky this year, hitting 54.2% of his 3-pointers, shooting 50% overall, and spacing the floor for Kaman inside by pulling opposing power forwards away from the hoop. Maybe it’s a fluke, or maybe he’s been miscast as a small forward for much of his career, but with Brand gone he seems to be thriving in his frontcourt role.
With the other four starters hitting on all cylinders, it’s made life infinitely easier for Maggette — the one legitimately dangerous scorer on the roster. He hasn’t needed to force bad shots while averaging a team-leading 19.8 points per game, while his propensity for drawing fouls (36 freethrow attempts in four games) constantly keeps opposing teams in the bonus.
The end result is that the Clippers, who on paper seemed like a 90-pound weakling at the offensive end, have instead looked fearsome — they rank sixth in offensive efficiency through Wednesday’s games. Yes, playing against bad defenses helps, but consider this: The Clips don’t need to be a 110-point-a-game juggernaut to succeed. They were a good defensive team a year ago and should be halfway decent even in Brand’s absence.
Thus, if they can just keep the offense somewhere near the league average, they have a real chance of staying in the playoff race until Brand comes back … which may not be until it’s too late anyway, but could be as early February.
So back to the original question — are they for real? I have my doubts. Other than Maggette and Cassell, none of these guys has played this well for such an extended period, and Cassell’s age and injury history make it unlikely that he can keep it up all season.
But the silver lining is that they may not need to be. If L.A. can fake it for half a season through smoke, mirrors, good fortune, and good health, and Brand comes back on the earlier side of his projected return date, it just might allow them to make an improbable playoff run in the rough Western Conference. For a team projected to be among the league’s worst when the season started, that would be an unbelievable accomplishment. And for a team with this club’s cursed history, even more so.
jhollinger@nysun.com