Are the Detroit Pistons the luckiest team in history?

With the latest developments in the Miami-Detroit series, we should consider the possibility. The Pistons are one win and one series away from a second straight NBA championship. In those two years, they have yet to play a series after the first round against an opponent who’s been at full strength.

Nets fans know this all too well. Much like Miami this year, New Jersey had the Pistons on the ropes last season before falling in the final two games of the second round. In the Nets’ case, Jason Kidd’s sore knee held him scoreless in the decisive Game 7 defeat.

The Pistons benefited further in the next two rounds. Indiana looked to be a grueling test in the conference finals, especially after the Pacers won Game 1. But two of Indiana’s three best players injured themselves during the series. Jermaine O’Neal sprained his knee and was unable to be a major contributor over the final two games, while Jamaal Tinsley limped around all series on a sore hamstring, doing more harm than good when he attempted to play. Partly as a result, the Pistons took the series in six games to make a somewhat surprising appearance in the Finals.

The Pistons caught another huge break in that series when the Lakers’ Karl Malone hurt his knee in the opening game and was rendered useless for the remainder of the series. Detroit proceeded to pick on a slew of Slava Medvedenkos and Brian Cooks, and routed the Lakers in a shockingly easy five games.

Of course, that’s not to detract from Detroit’s championship season. They certainly were dominant down the home stretch, and it’s very possible they would have won the title even if all their opponents were at full strength. But the question mark will always linger until we see them pull it off.

Amazingly, the Pistons received another huge dollop of good fortune this season. First, Indiana’s Ron Artest got himself suspended for the season – in part because an idiot in the Pistons’ crowd hurled a beer at him – thereby neutering one of their chief rivals. Then, when Detroit met Indiana in the second round, Tinsley once again was hurt while O’Neal played with a shoulder injury that severely limited his shooting capability.

After dispensing of the Pacers, the Pistons recevied another gift when Miami’s Shaquille O’Neal suffered a deep thigh bruise that greatly diminished both his endurance and his effectiveness. Additionally, guard Damon Jones battled a bruised heel and power forward Udonis Haslem broke a finger.

Despite those advantages, the Pistons trailed 3-2 heading into Saturday’s Game 6. That’s when Joe Dumars pulled out his voodoo doll and jabbed a pin in Dwyane Wade’s rib. At least, that’s my explanation for what happened next. Late in Game 5, Miami’s most explosive player bizarrely injured himself while executing a crossover dribble, knocking him out for Game 6 and leaving his status in doubt for the deciding game tonight.

At this point, of course, we shouldn’t have any doubt what will happen next. Wade either will be too injured to play or will play hurt and perform poorly. Then the Pistons will advance to the NBA Finals, where Tim Duncan will sprain an ankle in the second quarter of Game 1 and miss the rest of the series, allowing Detroit to claim a repeat championship.

If the Pistons do advance to the Finals tonight, our hope should be that we finally get to see them operate against a team playing at full strength. If they can beat San Antonio with everyone on both sides healthy, it would be the best evidence yet that the Pistons are worthy champions and not just fortunate usurpers who took advantage of timely injuries.

It’s too bad Wade wasn’t available on Saturday, because the way the Pistons played, they almost certainly would have won anyway. Detroit destroyed the Heat on the offensive boards and confused Shaq in the first half with a bewildering array of defenses – two areas that had little to do with Wade. The Pistons yanked down 14 offensive rebounds, allowing them to take a lead at halftime despite shooting a lower percentage than Miami. Meanwhile, Shaq got his points but committed six turnovers while trying to figure out whether a double-team was coming.

With or without Wade, Miami also has to figure out how to get no. 3 scorer Eddie Jones untracked. The Pistons held Jones to just three points on Saturday in 34 largely lifeless minutes. Jones’s playoff reputation has taken a beating the past few seasons – think of that ugly shot over the backboard he tossed up in Game 6 against Indiana last season – so tonight would be the perfect time for him to prove the naysayers wrong.

Miami must also stop Richard Hamilton from destroying them by curling off of screens. Hamilton has scored at least 20 points in each of the past five games, but he’s done even more damage with his passing.

When Hamilton beats his defender coming off the screen, a Miami big man has to step into Hamilton’s path. When that happens, Hamilton is dumping the ball quickly to his own open big man down low – usually Ben Wallace – to get Detroit an easy basket. Though not known as a great passer, Hamilton has at least five assists in every game this series, largely from that one play.

So getting Jones going and stopping Hamilton will be crucial for Miami. But ultimately, the Heat don’t have a chance unless Wade plays, and everybody knows it. For the sake of Detroit as much as Miami, I hope he’s out there and able to play the way he did in the series’ first five games. If the Pistons can win on the road against a reasonably healthy Heat team (both Shaq and Haslem have slowly recuperated), their claim to legitimacy becomes more believable. But if Wade sits out and the Pistons win, then the grumbling about Detroit’s amazing luck will only grow louder.