Arizona’s Arms Can Overpower Cub Bats

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Call it a battle of Nouveau Riche vs. Never Riche. The Arizona Diamondbacks already own one World Series title in their short history. Six years later, they’ve come back strong, going from a sub-.500 season to the best record in the National League. Meanwhile, the Cubs want to shed their image as lovable losers, having failed to win a World Series in 99 years or even get to one in 62 years. With one of the strongest pitching staffs in baseball, they’ll get their shot.

LINEUPS

At a glance, the Cubs would appear to have the advantage. They scored more runs over the course of the season, and they’re the ones at full strength. On the flip side, the Cubs showed their share of offensive weaknesses this year too. They’re a heavily right-handed team — their top four hitters with 400+ plate appearances are righties: Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Mark DeRosa. The lineup construction is also a little odd. Lou Piniella likes Ryan Theriot near the top of the order because of his speed, but he may be the team’s worst hitter among its starters. You want to give the sluggers every chance to knock in runs, rather than having an outmaker breaking up the better hitters.

The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, ranked 26th in MLB in runs scored. A season-ending injury to Orlando Hudson thrust Augie Ojeda into the lineup, Justin Upton is a talented player who often doesn’t look ready to face major league pitching, and there are no truly scary hitters in the lineup.

The batting order also looks a little strange for the Snakes, with Chris Young at the top. Sure, it’s nice to have 30+ steals in the leadoff spot. But Young also topped 30 homers for the season. His sub-.300 OBP makes him a better bet as a no. 5 hitter. If you like hot streaks, though, Mark Reynolds and Chris Snyder have had some big moments in the second half.

STARTING PITCHING

Brandon Webb (18-10, 3.01 ERA) was the second-best pitcher in the NL this year, behind only Jake Peavy. He’s evolved from a groundball pitcher with only so-so command to an expert strike-thrower whose rare mistakes usually result in singles, not homers.

Livan Hernandez and Micah Owings are no great shakes, but they are righties, which works to Arizona’s advantage against the righty-stuffed Cubs lineup. The Cubs lack a shutdown ace, as Carlos Zambrano (18-13, 3.95) has fallen off a bit this season.

Slotting in Ted Lilly (15–8, 3.83) and Rich Hill (11–8, 3.92) also benefits the Diamondbacks, who themselves rely heavily on righty hitters, notably Young, Eric Byrnes, Conor Jackson, and Reynolds.

The big question for this series is if one or both teams will use their no. 1 starters on short rest.

For the Diamondbacks, that would get Webb in more often. For the Cubs, it’s more a matter of avoiding Jason Marquis (12-9, 4.60) at all costs. He’s struggled after a strong first few months and could get in trouble in a potential Game 4.

RELIEF AND RESERVES

You can call the benches a draw. The best pinch-hitters for both teams are a pair of old vets with pop, Tony Clark for the Diamondbacks and Daryle Ward for the Cubs. There’s some speed and versatility otherwise on both

No team has managed its bullpen better than the Diamondbacks this year. Bob Melvin has done a great job of slotting closer Jose Valverde and solid set-up men Tony Pena and Brandon Lyon in high-leverage situations, leaving less important innings to the rest of the pen. That’s one of the biggest reasons the D-backs won 90 games this year, despite scoring fewer runs than they allowed.

Meanwhile the Cubs’ pen is built like last year’s Tigers crew: a so-so closer (Ryan Dempster), supported by one lights-out set-up man (Carlos Marmol), and two useful middle men (Bob Howry and Michael Wuertz).

Still, if Arizona’s starters can get into the sixth and seventh innings, the Diamondbacks have the edge here.

MANAGER

I mentioned Melvin’s terrific job of handling his bullpen this season. For that alone, he should be NL Manager of the Year. He’s also shown a willingness to use young talent (Reynolds, Owings, and others) with great results. Lou Piniella has run his team like a meritocracy, using unknowns such as Mike Fontenot and Theriot extensively and adjusting players’ roles based on performance. These are two of the better managers in the game.

In what figures to be a series dominated by pitching, their decisions could loom large.

PREDICTION

Overall, the Cubs have the offensive edge. But a study of 25 years of playoff results from the book “Baseball Between the Numbers” shows that regular-season offensive success has almost no correlation to post-season success. Strike-throwing starters, a great closer and an airtight defense tend to play bigger roles. The Diamondbacks have the edge in those categories, overshadowing the Cubs’ big bats. Diamondbacks in four.

Jonah Keri covers baseball for ESPN.com. He can be reached at jonahkeri@gmail.com.


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