DALLAS – It seems a simple premise: Stand 15 feet away from a hoop 10 feet high, and take as much time as you need to lob the ball over the front rim and into the net.

But for some people, it’s an incredibly difficult task. Even for people who get paid to do this for a living.

Take Shaquille O’Neal, for instance. The Miami Heat’s behemoth center has had a career to rival almost anyone in the history of basketball. Three times he’s led his team to an NBA title, and on three other occasions he’s put his team into the Finals. Opposing defenses send mammoth defenders onto the court in an effort to stop Shaq’s forays around the basket, and still find themselves rendered powerless by his formidable strength.

Yet when faced with the relatively simple task of making a free throw, the superhuman Shaq suddenly morphs into the mortal Mr. O’Neal. That weakness keeps rearing its ugly head in the postseason, and could ultimately be the flaw that keeps him from earning a fourth championship ring.

Consider Miami’s 90-80 loss to Dallas in Game 1 of the Finals on Thursday, when Shaq made only the last of his nine free-throw attempts. Those eight points he left on the table accounted for nearly the entire margin of victory, and also left Shaq with a below-par tally for the night of 17 points. (On a lighter note, a day later it led to the surreal site of a reporter asking Dallas backup center Erick Dampier – a 63.1% career marksman – if he had any free-throw tips for Shaq).

Additionally, Shaq’s accuracy was even worse than the stats show. He got second tries on two his attempts because of lane violations by the Mavericks – a common theme when Shaq shoots, because he has an unorthodox double-clutch at the top of his shot that’s vaguely remisinent of former Knick Anthony Mason.

Thus, he actually needed 11 attempts to make his one successful try. That’s a pitiful 9.1% mark from the free-throw line, or about one-tenth of what Mavericks star Dirk Nowitzki shot this season (90.1%). The Heat could live with that if it were a one game fluke, but it’s not. Just a week earlier, Shaq and company almost single-handedly gave away Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals by making only 6-for-20 from the stripe. The Heat were able to survive their free-throw struggles against a lifeless Detroit team, but against the high-powered Mavericks it’s going to be a much tougher slog.

It’s hardly breaking news that O’Neal is a poor free-throw shooter, of course, but what’s different this year is that he seems to be getting worse. Already in the postseason, he’s had games of 1-for-9, 5-for-15, 1-for-5, 1-for-7, 2-for-8, 3-for-10, 2-for-12, and 0-for-6. For the playoffs as a whole, he’s shooting 38.5%, and the only reason it’s that high is because he made 11 of his first 15.

You might think it’s a fluke based on small samples, but I’m not so sure. O’Neal’s percentages have been headed steadily downward slope ever since 2002-03. O’Neal shot a career-high 62.2% from the stripe that season, but he hasn’t been over 50% since. He made only 49.1% in 2003-04, and posted the two lowest marks of his career since he came to Miami, at 46.1% and 46.9% respectively.

Blame the deteriorating fundamentals in his delivery. Shaq’s form was never exquisite, but he used to bend his knees much more than he does now and as a result got more air under the ball. With a higher arc, his shot had much more of a chance to get over the front rim than the line-drive bullets he’s flinging up now. So should we really be surprised that Shaq’s at 38.5% in the playoffs? It just seems like the next logical step in the progression.

His free-throw woes are an important consideration because O’Neal gets fouled as much as any player in the history of the game. Even in his old age this season he earned eight attempts per game. It’s one thing if Detroit’s Ben Wallace is firing up bricks from the line, because he’s asked to score so rarely that it only comes up once or twice per game. But when it’s a key player like O’Neal, the ramifications are much larger.

For starters, O’Neal’s free-throw shooting has become enough of a liability that the “Hack-a-Shaq” strategy becomes a viable option. Teams have used this tactic occasionally against O’Neal throughout his career, but usually he converted at a high enough rate that it was rarely worth it for the opponent.

For example, when Shaq was hitting in the low 50s (his career rate), his team could expect to get close to 1.2 points on a possession where Shaq was intentionally fouled – just over one point from Shaq shooting, and the rest from the possibility of getting a rebound on the second shot. Even the best offenses can’t match 1.2 points per possession, so the strategy in times of desperation.

But if Shaq is shooting in the mid-40s, or worse yet the high 30s, the equation completely shifts. At 45%, the Heat can only expect about one point per possession from the exercise, making it a tempting proposition for Dallas if the defense is struggling. Lower the conversion rate to shack’s playoff mark of 38%, and it gets to the point where the Mavs would be crazy not to foul him – the Heat would get fewer than 0.9 points per possession, which would be a horrendous offensive performance.

Additionally, there’s the dilemma of Shaq’s usefulness in fourth quarters. Opponents have long known to foul him when he catches the ball within arm’s reach of the basket, to prevent the near-certainty of an earth-shattering slam dunk. But O’Neal has become such a poor shooter that teams now have the incentive to foul on almost any catch near the basket, preventing O’Neal from attempting even a jump hook – a shot he’ll nail two times out of three.

Ignoring the strategic elements, perhaps the worst part is simply the number of points Miami will leave on the table in this series. If Nowitzki and O’Neal both take 10 free throws a game – a reasonable guess based on their averages – the Mavs will end up with a five-point edge every night, because Dirk makes nine out of ten while Shaq only makes four. Ultimately, that looks it will be the difference between the champion and the runner-up this season.

Mr. Hollinger is the author of the 2005-06 Pro Basketball Forecast. He can be reached at johollinger@nysun.com.