It seemed like the perfect fit. Drew Brees, one of the NFL’s top young quarterbacks, had been set free by San Diego after tearing the labrum and damaging the rotator cuff in his throwing shoulder in the final game of 2005.The Miami Dolphins went 9-7 last season with journeyman Gus Frerotte running the offense, and clearly needed an upgrade behind center. The best quarterback available, and a team that was a quarterback away from a playoff spot: the perfect fit.

But Brees isn’t going to be a Dolphin in 2006.In a surprise move yesterday, the Dolphins traded a second-round draft pick to Minnesota for the disgruntled Daunte Culpepper. Less than an hour later, the New Orleans Saints signed Brees to a six-year, $60 million deal that includes a $10 million signing bonus.

Most observers believed Culpepper was Miami’s Plan B. Did Brees decide to sign in New Orleans before Miami made the trade, or did the Dolphins change their mind and break off negotiations? The answer to that question is a mystery at this point. The Saints were offering more guaranteed money, and Brees may have decided this was his chance to earn the biggest paycheck. Or the Dolphins may have decided that Brees’s gimpy shoulder made him too much of a gamble based on his asking price.

Of course, Culpepper is also coming off an injury, and most medical experts believe he, not Brees, is the bigger gamble. While a torn labrum is often a death sentence for a baseball pitcher, many quarterbacks have returned from the injury with no ill effects. Brees is already throwing again and doctors insist he’ll be ready for the coming season.

Culpepper, on the other hand, tore his ACL and MCL ligaments and also damaged the associated knee meniscus. Injuries of this sort are notorious for their long rehabilitation periods, with full motion and speed not returning for two years and sometimes not at all. There is no guarantee that Culpepper will be ready for the 2006 season, which could force the Dolphins to go back to Frerotte as their starter. That’s a big problem because, contrary to their “up-and-coming” image, the Dolphins are designed to win now. Miami is built around defense, but only one of the projected starters in the front seven is under 30. It makes no sense for the team to invest in a quarterback for the future and not have him for all of the upcoming season.

There were other reasons for the Dolphins to prefer Brees. Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey has always preferred drop back passers to scrambling quarterbacks like Culpepper. Moreover, signing Brees would cost only money; trading for Culpepper cost a draft pick and put the Dolphins on the hook for his salary as well.

And while Brees was the right fit for the Dolphins, the Dolphins were also the right fit for Brees. Now, instead of becoming the last piece of the puzzle for a team looking to contend for an AFC title, he becomes one of the first pieces of the puzzle for a team beginning a massive rebuilding effort. If Brees wants to show the Chargers what a mistake they made by not re-signing him, New Orleans is the wrong place to do it.

Brees’s growth over the last two seasons has not come in a vacuum. He had major help in San Diego from the emergence of tight end Antonio Gates and one of the league’s top running backs, LaDainian Tomlinson. In Miami, he would have had a strong tight end target in Randy McMichael and last year’s no.2 overall draft pick, Ronnie Brown, powering the running game. In New Orleans, the tight end is the unknown Zachary Hilton and the running back, Deuce McAllister, is coming off an ACL injury.

Miami’s offensive line took a huge step forward last year, while New Orleans just lost its best lineman, center LeCharles Bentley, to free agency. Miami’s top receiver, Chris Chambers, is 28 and in the prime of his career; New Orleans’s top receiver, Joe Horn, is 34 and struggled with injuries last season.

Signing Brees is an excellent move for the Saints, but one that will have almost no impact on their chances of making the playoffs in 2006. Before adding Breasted Saints’ roster was a mess; now, it’s a very good quarterback surrounded by a mess. The hurricane that rendered the Saints homeless last season wasn’t the only reason they sank to 3-13. The Saints had been running in place for years with the same mediocre core of players, and many of them finally hit a wall.

In fact, the biggest immediate impact of this signing may be on other teams, because the Saints hold the second overall pick in next month’s draft. Prior to their interest in Brees, all indications were that the Saints planned to draft one of this year’s three highly rated passers – USC’s Matt Leinart, Texas’s Vince Young, or Vanderbilt’s Jay Cutler. Now the quarterback of the future in New Orleans is Brees, still just 27, and the second pick in the draft is a mystery.

The Saints are in position to draft one of three high-impact non-quarterbacks: offensive tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson of Virginia, defensive end Mario Williams of North Carolina State, or linebacker A.J. Hawk of Ohio State. Early indications, however, are that the Saints would prefer to trade the pick to a team that wants a quarterback. The extra draft picks the Saints would receive in return would be very useful given how many needs they have.

Which team might be interested in a trade? Well, Oakland, drafting seventh, has a huge hole at quarterback. Detroit and Arizona, drafting ninth and 10th, are currently quarterbacked by the underwhelming Joey Harrington and the over-the-hill Kurt Warner, respectively.

But there is only one team the Saints could trade with that would still assure them of getting Ferguson, Williams, or Hawk: the Jets, currently holding the fourth selection. If Gang Green decides one of the three quarterbacks is a better prospect compared to the other two, they could trade with the Saints to move up two spots and make sure that Tennessee doesn’t take the quarterback they covet.

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.