As the West Battles, Celtics Should Cruise in the East

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The New York Sun

As one season ends, another begins. Tomorrow the NBA postseason starts, and it’s one of the most anticipated playoffs ever, due to the tightness of the standings, especially in the West. But before it tips off, we have some tidying up to do from the remnants of the 2007–08 regular season.

Fourteen teams didn’t make the playoffs, and at least two spent yesterday dismissing the responsible parties. Chicago kicked interim coach Jim Boylan to the curb and Milwaukee did the same to Larry Krystkowiak.

Those moves have a direct bearing on the local basketball collective here in New York, as the Knicks are expected to relieve Isiah Thomas of his coaching duties any minute now. Thus, the Knicks, Bulls, and Bucks will be going after the same coaching candidates.

In fact, two men believed to be high on Donnie Walsh’s list of potential replacements — former Pacers and Pistons coach Rick Carlisle and former Bulls coach Scott Skiles — are the names being mentioned most prominently for those two openings in the Midwest.

Carlisle is a hot name in Chicago, which would provide an opportunity to continue his quest to coach every team in the Central Division, while Skiles is rumored to be in talks with the Bucks and could be off the market before the Knicks have a chance to act.

One wonders why it’s taking Walsh so long to make such an obvious move, especially as he might be missing out on potential candidates. Although the Daily News reported that Thomas was told a week ago he won’t be back as head coach, nothing has been announced officially and no press conferences have been scheduled.

The openings in Milwaukee and Chicago shouldn’t be Walsh’s only concern, either. There’s a chance Charlotte and Memphis will can coaches Sam Vincent and Mark Iavaroni in the coming days, and few expect Miami’s Pat Riley to return to the bench next season.

So c’mon Donnie, let’s get cracking already. New Bucks GM John Hammond was hired even later in the season than you were, but he didn’t have any problem dismissing Krystkowiak within 12 hours of Milwaukee’s season ending. Given how disastrous Isiah’s reign has been, is there any reason we’re still waiting for the inevitable?

But while we’re speaking of the inevitable, let’s get back to the playoffs. It’s inevitable that at least a couple of teams out West are going to be horribly disappointed a fortnight from now. San Antonio and Phoenix, for instance, both began the year with title aspirations, and many pundits considered them the two best teams in the league in October. Well, as it turns out only one of them is getting out of the first round, because they play each other.

So it goes out West, where at least two 54-win teams won’t survive the first round and a team that won 50 games got the No. 8 slot for its troubles. Meanwhile, the East shapes up as the Celtics Invitational, with only Detroit a true threat to Boston’s amazing rejuvenation.

Here’s a closer look at each of the eight series:

WESTERN CONFERENCE

(3) San Antonio vs. (6) Phoenix: Unquestionably the marquee series of the first round, this is the third time in four years these two have met in the postseason. In 2005, the Spurs won in the conference finals, ultimately winning the title. Last year the Spurs won in the conference semifinals, again ultimately winning the title, while bad blood spilled both literally (out of Steve Nash’s nose) and figuratively (when Robert Horry’s cheap shot on Nash begat series-altering suspensions to Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw).

This time the Suns are revamped, while the Spurs are showing their age. Phoenix made the risky and probably foolish trade of Shawn Marion for Shaquille O’Neal, in large part to match up better with the Spurs, and it’s seemed to work — the Suns won both meetings since the deal.

San Antonio, meanwhile, has been far less impressive than it was in romping to the title a year ago. With a roster heavy on guys in their mid-30s, injury questions up and down the roster (Manu Ginobili’s groin, Horry’s knee, Brent Barry’s calf), and an opponent built mainly to beat them, San Antonio might be headed for an unusually early exit.

Pick: Suns in six.

(4) Utah vs. (5) Houston: Houston’s roster looks underwhelming, and with Rafer Alston sidelined and Shane Battier hurting, their chances look even worse. However, the Rockets are extremely deep and are the best defensive team in the West, so they’re a lot better than they appear.

Not better than the Jazz, however, who sported the second-best scoring margin in the Western Conference and went 37–12 after January 1. (Of course, the Rockets went 40-11. See how we keep underestimating them?) Houston has home court advantage despite being the lower seed, and that will be important considering Utah’s massive home-road disparity. But with depth, star power, and quality at every position, I still think the Jazz will be the last team standing in the West this year.

Pick: Jazz in six.

(1) L.A. Lakers vs. (8) Denver: Denver has a rep as a terrible defensive team, but actually they’re pretty good: The Nuggies ranked ninth in Defensive Efficiency, my measure of a team’s points allowed per 100 possessions. It just looked like they stank because they played the league’s fastest pace and the ragged nature of their games gave purists heart attacks.

Denver’s bigger concern is that an offense with Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson only ranked 11th in Offensive Efficiency. This team doesn’t space the floor well — volatile sixth man J.R. Smith is the only quality shooter — and while the pace guarantees a high point total, they get too many empty trips.

If they can make a bunch of threes, they have a shot at the upset, because the difference between the two teams is much less than in your usual no. 1 vs. no. 8 matchup. Nonetheless, the Lakers likely have too many weapons — starting with likely MVP Kobe Bryant — and methinks either they or the Jazz will be representing the West against Boston this June.

Pick: Lakers in five.

(2) New Orleans vs. (7) Dallas: The Hornets’ unexpected renaissance — and even more unexpected crowd support — has been one of the year’s most heartwarming stories. Nonetheless, Jason Kidd has a decent chance of raining on their parade. The former Net icon’s team may only be the seventh seed in the West, but this series is a coin toss: Dallas only won four fewer games than the Hornets and were only one point behind in average scoring margin.

The series will likely swing based on one or two close games. Both teams have superstar players — Chris Paul for New Orleans, Dirk Nowitzki for Dallas — supported by unheralded star forwards (Josh Howard, David West). Both have feisty young coaches who won titles as players. The difference may ultimately be in the middle, where the Hornets’ Tyson Chandler has no match on the Dallas side.

Pick: Hornets in seven.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(3) Orlando vs. (6) Toronto: Here’s an interesting matchup. Toronto looked like the third-best team in the East for two-thirds of the season, and then, without warning, it lost its mojo and went 9–17 down the stretch. Orlando doesn’t impress many people, especially with a mediocre-at-best backcourt of Jameer Nelson and Maurice Evans, but the Magic won 52 games and split or won the season series against every team in the East.

The matchup that will determine the series is Chris Bosh against Rashard Lewis. Orlando doesn’t have a true power forward on its roster, a circumstance that forces Lewis to defend the potent, multitalented Bosh. On the other hand, Bosh will have to chase Lewis out to the 3-point line, and his shot-blocking and rebounding won’t be such a factor if he’s 20 feet from the hoop. Obviously, Bosh is the superior player and will outscore Lewis, but for Toronto to advance, he needs to destroy Lewis.

Pick: Magic in six.

(4) Cleveland vs. (5) Washington: The Cavs made the finals last year and have the game’s best player in LeBron James, so it may surprise some people to learn that they really aren’t any good. Cleveland gave up more points than it scored, has the league’s worst backcourt, and continues to give huge dollops of playing time to the obviously finished Ben Wallace for no apparent reason.

Washington isn’t much to look at either, but the return of Gilbert Arenas from his nearly season-long absence due to knee problems adds a potent scorer to what was already a pretty good offensive team. The guess here is that he’ll be the difference maker as Washington finally gets past its playoff nemesis.

Pick: Wizards in six.(2) Detroit vs. (7) Philadelphia: The Sixers are a great story, making the playoffs after being all but left for dead by most pundits, but they seemed to run out of gas down the stretch. Philly lost home games to Washington, Atlanta, and Indiana in the season’s final two weeks and dropped its final four games, costing the Sixers a shot at a more winnable first-round series.

Instead they get Detroit, which has been coasting for the past month and now has a chance to slowly work its way back up to playoff intensity. The Pistons have a lot of questions to answer after suffering May implosions in the past two postseasons, but they won’t really be tested until they face the Magic in round two.

Pick: Pistons in five.

(1) Boston vs. (8) Atlanta: It’s a moral victory for the Hawks if they only lose by single figures. Boston is not only the best team in the league, but in terms of win-loss record and scoring margin, it is one of the best of all time. Atlanta is not only the worst playoff team in the league, but in terms of win-loss record and scoring margin, it is one of the worst of all time. If the Hawks win, it’s the biggest upset in the history of basketball.

Pick: Boston in four.

jhollinger@nysun.com


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