At the Australian Open, the Women’s Event Takes Top Billing

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The New York Sun

The Australian Open begins Monday and Roger Federer, the man with the most impeccable timing and natural grace the game of tennis has seen in decades, if not ever, has a new ally in his quest for domination: germs.

Yes, Federer even knows when to become ill with a stomach virus: 10 days before the first major of the year, so he has plenty of time to recover (word is he’s already feeling much better and might play an exhibition match before the weekend is out). If he’s anywhere near full strength, this year’s tournament could be as much of a blowout as last year’s, when Federer won the title without losing a set. If he isn’t, it probably won’t matter much. One of his chief rivals at this event, David Nalbandian, the Argentine who defeated Federer twice at the end of last season, has injured his back and may not play at all (if he does, he could meet Federer in the semifinals). Tommy Haas, another top player who gave Federer a good run in Melbourne a few years ago, has injured his surgically repaired shoulder and withdrawn. No doubt those germs will take out any other challengers if need be.

Expect Federer to work his magic again, and this time he’ll do it in the shadow of the typically disappointing — at least for the last three years or so — women’s event. Saying that it’s anyone’s guess who will win the women’s tournament is nothing new — the women have been in search of a full-time leader for some time now, though Justine Henin asserted herself last year and may well press onward this year. But a tournament where anyone can win and the draw doesn’t plop all the best players, via dumb luck, onto one half? That hasn’t happened in a while. The Williams sisters are playing well and not in the same half of the draw. The two talented Serbs, Jelena Jankovic and Ana Ivanovic, are not in the same half, either. We could have an all-Williams final, or an all-Serbian final. Best of all, we almost certainly will not have an all-Russian final, the most dreary final of them all.

The gods of the draw didn’t stop there. For once, we’ll have a compelling early match: a secondround meeting between Maria Sharapova and Lindsay Davenport. Sharapova had a terrible 2007 and badly wants to return to the top. Davenport, now a 31-year-old mother, has played superbly since returning to the tour last fall (she’s won all her matches save one). Sharapova has won four of their five meetings, but all four lasted three sets.

The winner of that match would be in line to play Henin in the quarterfinals, with the winner possibly meeting Serena Williams in the semifinals. Serena has several up-and-comers in her path: Victoria Azarenka (possibly in the third round); Nicole Vaidisova (possibly in the fourth round), and Jankovic (possibly in the quarterfinals). So, after two easy matches, Williams could face difficult opponents five matches in a row. In women’s tennis, that’s almost unheard of — and much to the tournament’s benefit.

Venus Williams, the no. 8 seed, and Svetlana Kuznetsova, the no. 2 seed, are at opposite ends of the bottom half of the draw. Venus, who is rumored to be engaged to boyfriend Hank Kuehne, has an uneventful path to the quarterfinals, where she could meet Ivanovic, the no. 4 seed from Serbia. This is a big year for Ivanovic: She’ll either show that she is a legitimate Grand Slam title contender, or that she remains a work in progress. Kuznetsova’s quarter is wide open and filled with inconsistent players (Kuznetsova herself, Nadia Petrova, and Daniela Hantuchova). Keep an eye on Agnes Szavay, who has the game, and the draw, to reach her first Grand Slam semifinal (where she might face Venus).

In the men’s tournament, Federer will face an early annoyance: a second-round meeting with the two-handed magician, Fabrice Santoro, or the towering ace machine, John Isner. Maybe he’ll play a tiebreaker or two. After that, he should cruise into the semifinals for another meeting with Novak Djokovic, the 20-year-old Serb who lost to Federer in last year’s U.S. Open final.

Djokovic is the most important character in tennis this season after Federer. If the world no. 3 continues to improve, he’ll make Federer’s race to a record 15 Grand Slam titles a lot more difficult (Federer will still get there, but it might take him longer). If he slumps, as he did last fall, well, it will be up to Rafael Nadal to make life interesting for Federer. Nadal doesn’t have the most appetizing draw in Melbourne. He could face fellow Mallorcan Carlos Moya, who nearly beat Nadal in a warm-up event last week and left Nadal exhausted for the final, which he lost 6–0, 6–1 to Mikhail Youzhny. If Nadal beats Moya this time, he might have to face Andy Roddick next.

Roddick has favorable draw. For one, Federer is out of sight. For another, he opens with a qualifier and then might face 18-year-old American Donald Young, who almost certainly would be playing against two opponents in that match: Roddick and the moment itself. The highest seed in Roddick’s path to the quarterfinals is Tommy Robredo (no. 11); Roddick has thumped Robredo all seven times they have met.

If Roddick reaches the semifinals, don’t be surprised if he meets the other Andy, Andy Murray. Murray has a tough first-round opponent, the hard-hitting, quickmoving Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and other dangerous men lurk in his quarter, including Youzhny and Ivo Karlovic (Karlovic’s first two matches should be simple and he could go far). Murray has looked superb leading up to the tournament, but is he fit enough for the heat of Melbourne? A Murray-Federer final filled with volleys, lobs, and sharp angles could salvage a men’s event that likely will get off to a shaky start.

If not, watch the ladies.

Mr. Perrotta is a senior editor at Tennis Magazine. He can be reached at tperrotta@tennismagazine.com.


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