The opening of the Pimlico racetrack in Baltimore can be traced to a Saratoga dinner party hosted in 1868 by a wealthy horse owner named Milton Sanford. The revelers decided to hold a race called the “Dinner Party Stakes” to commemorate the fun they were having, leading Oden Bowie, the governor of Maryland who had gotten rich from selling blankets during the Civil War, to chuck in $15,000 for the purse. They would run the race in two years for horses that were yearlings at the time.

There had been horse races in Maryland long before that – George Washington gambled and lost money there – but there was no track in Baltimore until one was built to host the Dinner Party Stakes. The Maryland Jockey Club found a spot called Old Hilltop, which was surrounded by an area known as Pimlico (thus named by the original English settlers in honor of their old pub in London: Old Ben Pimlico’s Tavern).

The hill in the infield provided excellent viewing, and the place was clogged with carriages on opening day, a balmy October 25, 1870. Two days into the meet, the bugler blew the calls for the Breakfast Stakes, the Supper Stakes, and, finally, the Dinner Party Stakes. The promise made over dinner had become a reality.

The first winner, a horse named Preakness, was owned by Milton Sanford himself. The horse gave his name to what is now the most important stakes race run in Maryland, and the middle leg of the Triple Crown races.

On Saturday, 14 horses will go to the gate to run the 130th Preakness at 1 3/16 miles around the long ago flattened Old Hilltop. It’s an intriguing bunch, headlined by long-shot Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo, out to prove that he isn’t a fluke. Also running will be three of Nick Zito’s once well-regarded horses – Sun King, Noble Causeway, and High Fly – each in need of redemption after a disappointing Derby. And then there’s the favorite, Afleet Alex, the only touted horse to end up on the board in Kentucky.

The Preakness is special not only because of its history and longevity, and not only because of the parade of heroic horses that have won the Black Eyed Susans. Of the three Triple Crown races, it is the one most likely to be run in a manner that accords with the rules of racing. There are fewer wild cards than at Churchill Downs, where 20 inexperienced 3-year-olds run a race longer than they’ve ever run; there’s less distance than in the marathon 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes, the longest Grade I race run over dirt in America. The Preakness is limited to 14 horses, and it’s run at the manageable distance of 1 3/16 miles. This does not make it easy to handicap, by any stretch of the imagination, but it suggests that the Preakness will run more like a “normal” horse race than did the Derby two weeks ago.

In order to get a sense of how the track is running at Pimlico this year, I looked at 21 races run there this month over a mile or more (most of them at 1 1/16). I learned two important facts. The most important lesson to glean is one that has long been trumpeted in racing circles, and long refuted: Pace sticks at Pimlico. The second fact is that the races are slow.

Of the 21 races, the pace horse was on the board in all but four. The horse out front by the second call won 11 of the 21 races, and stuck for the place for another five. Only once did the horse falter and fall to third, and the other four times, the horse dropped very far up the track.

The first trend is simple enough – get out front at Pimlico and you’ll still be there when you hit the wire. The second trend complicates things a bit. Only three of the 21 races I looked at began with a pace faster than 48 seconds over the first quarter mile. Twice a horse ran away with a race off a half mile clocked around 46 seconds, and one opening half was clocked at 47 (that pacesetter didn’t stay). Eight of the 21 routes clocked between 48 and 49, and 10 races clocked above that. Speed is sticking, yes, but it is very slow speed.

Compare that with the 14 Preakness horses. They have run in a total of 38 races this year, only four of which have been run with an opening quarter-mile that went slower than 47 4 /5.

This sets up a confusing angle for a handicapper. If the speed that sticks at Pimlico isn’t running very fast, what do you do with a gate full of horses itching to run the half-mile in 46 seconds? Is it conceivable that the majority of horses loose on the front at Pimlico are actually rating through a false pace, saving their strength?

No. The solution to the riddle is an obvious one: The splits at Pimlico are slow because the horses that typically run there are slow (all the fast ones followed the slots money over to Delaware). The normal pattern will unfold Saturday, but it will be faster. All those plodders recording 49-second halves aren’t setting false paces – that’s as fast as they can run.

Here, then, is the race. Going Wild attempts the lead with Scrappy T and High Limit. Going Wild fades first, because this is not Santa Anita. It looks like anyone’s race for a short moment, but it soon becomes clear that the two leaders have only two challengers: Afleet Alex and Noble Causeway.

How that superfecta is going to work out is hard to guess. Scrappy T can’t really run with this company, so he should sink to a photo finish for third with Afleet Alex. High Limit, meanwhile, will fight to hold on in front of Noble Causeway. Maybe it’s just the $864,253.50 Derby payout talking, but I think that with the morning lines at 12-1 for High Limit, 10-1 for Noble Causeway, and 20-1 for Scrappy T, a $1 superfecta box on those horses sounds like a good way to spend $24.

But while you’re looking at the tote board and thinking about your bankroll, don’t get unnecessarily caught up chasing monster payouts. There is a lot of value in this race.

Malibu Moonshine’s trainer, King Leatherbury, ranks third in all-time wins as a trainer, and this is his home turf. The horse might not be able to win this race, but he’s tempting at 20-1. The other long odds horses are worth playing, too. Ask yourself why a horse like High Limit is going off at 12-1; if it’s because of his Derby trip, bet on him. The same goes for Greeley’s Galaxy. The Derby skewed the odds, here, and there is some low-hanging fruit to pick.