Balanced Attack Should Lead Bengals to Playoffs

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How uncommon is Cincinnati’s 3-0 start? The last time the Bengals won their first three games, America’s great enemy was still the Soviet Union, NBC had just premiered a new sitcom called “Seinfeld,” and nobody outside of Seattle had ever heard of a band called Nirvana. The Bengals made the playoffs in 1990 and went on to play two teams that no longer exist – the Houston Oilers and the Los Angeles Raiders.


Fifteen years later, the Bengals are undefeated and all alone atop the AFC North. The offense leads the NFL in time of possession and ranks third in yards per game at just over 389. The defense has 12 interceptions, twice as many as any other team. Only the Giants have scored more points per game, and only the Colts have allowed fewer. (That latter fact may be even stranger than the Bengals starting 3-0.)


Cincinnati has been dominant, and even more importantly, they’ve been balanced. According to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average ratings (DVOA) – which break down each play of the season and compare it to the NFL average based on situation and opponent – Cincinnati ranks first in pass defense but also ranks among the top six teams in run defense, pass offense, and run offense. The Bengals even rank ninth on special teams.


The offense is no surprise; the Bengals have had a strong, balanced offense since Marvin Lewis took over as head coach in 2003. It’s built around stars at the “skill positions”: Quarterback Carson Palmer, running back Rudi Johnson, and receivers Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Each player has at least two years of NFL experience, but is young enough to have a few good years ahead. A strong line is anchored by veteran Pro Bowl tackle Willie Anderson on the right and Levi Jones, gradually filling his first-round potential, on the left.


Cincinnati’s pass defense improved last year, with two talented second round draft picks, cornerback Keiwan Ratliff and safety Madieu Williams, joining two rejuvenated veterans, cornerbacks Deltha O’Neal and Tory James. Based on DVOA, their pass defense went from 28th in the league to 15th.


But this year’s performance is light years beyond that. Twelve interceptions put the Bengals more than halfway toward matching last year’s total of 20. Moreover, opposing quarterbacks are completing just 54% of passes, down from 60% last year.


Are the Bengals for real? Detractors argue that Cincinnati has taken advantage of a schedule that led off with three weak opponents. Cleveland and Chicago were expected to be among the worst teams in the NFL this season. Expectations for Minnesota were much higher, but most of the press quickly leaped off the Vikings bandwagon once Minnesota was trounced by both the Buccaneers and Bengals.


Of course, both teams are now 3-0, while Minnesota handily won its first game against a non-unbeaten team yesterday, so perhaps the Vikings weren’t such a cupcake opponent after all. And even if they were, the fact that the Bengals have taken advantage of an easy schedule doesn’t mean their season is destined to fall apart – because their schedule doesn’t get any harder going forward.


The average DVOA of Cincinnati’s remaining opponents ranks 27th in the NFL. Next week, the Bengals host the 0-2 Houston Texans, who were clobbered in their first two games and seem to have a Flat Earth Society relationship with the concept of the offensive line. Cincinnati’s interception-hungry defense still gets to play the feeble offenses of Detroit, Green Bay, and Baltimore (twice!). Only four teams on Cincinnati’s schedule have winning records right now, and they get to play their hardest non-division opponent, Indianapolis, at home in cold November with a week off to prepare beforehand.


If the Bengals have any worry, it’s that their defensive front seven has yet to be tested. This was the team’s primary weakness last year and, consequently, the focus of Cincinnati’s offseason moves, highlighted by the choice of Georgia linebackers David Pollack and Odell Thurman with its first two draft picks.


Did the front seven get better? There are mixed results. The 4.6 yards they’ve given up on average looks bad, but the yards have not been quite so damaging since many of them have come in second-and-long situations. But the Bengals have yet to face a team that really tried to run the ball on them. Going into the fourth quarter of the three victories, the Bengals have led opponents by a combined score of 78-10, which is one of the reasons why they’ve faced fewer than 20 rushing plays per game.


The pass rush is also still a mystery. On one hand, the rush must be good to confuse opposing quarterbacks into throwing a dozen interceptions. On the other hand, the Bengals can’t expect to pick off four passes per game for the rest of the season. At some point, the linemen have to get to the quarterback, and the Bengals have just two sacks on the season so far.


Even if the front seven is a weakness, however, it is the only one on a team that is otherwise solid and well-coached. As long as the offense and secondary can continue to play well, the Bengals will be going to the playoffs for the first time since that 9-7 season 15 years ago. Will they win their division for the first time since their Super Bowl season of 1988? Mark October 23 and December 4 on your calendar, because the answer to that question depends just as much on the 2-1 Pittsburgh Steelers as it does on the Bengals themselves.



Mr. Schatz is the editor-in-chief of FootballOutsiders.com.


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