Forget the All-Star selection process, which is part popularity contest, part tokenism, and part career recognition. Here are our picks for the 10 best first halves in each league, based solely on performance.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

C Ivan Rodriguez,Tigers. Pudge is cementing his Hall of Fame credentials with a season that so far exceeds even his 1999 MVP campaign.

1B/DH Frank Thomas, White Sox. He didn’t even make the All-Star team, but at second in the AL in OBA and seventh in SLG, he’s back to being the Big Hurt of old.

2B Mark Bellhorn, Red Sox. It’s a weak year for AL second basemen, but Bellhorn has a fine .388 OBA and is playing solid defense up the middle.

3B Alex Rodriguez, Yankees. A-Rod’s defensive skills are wasted to some extent at the hot corner, but it’s that defense that puts him ahead of fellow hothitting third basemen Hank Blalock and Melvin Mora.

SS Carlos Guillen,Tigers. With two of his offseason acquisitions among the league’s best players, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski is the favorite for Executive of the Year. Guillen leads all big league shortstops in Baseball Prospectus’s Value Over Replacement Player category,posting a line of .324 AVG/.391 OBA/.558 SLG in a tough hitter’s park.

LF Manny Ramirez, Red Sox. Remember when this guy was waived during the offseason? Neither do we. His outrageous batting line of .344/.437/.682 ranks second only to his all-world 2000 season. And he’s missed just two games.

CF Johnny Damon, Red Sox. Damon’s having a tidy .321/.401/.488 year at the plate,and he gets bonus points for covering all the outfield ground that Ramirez can’t.

RF Vladimir Guerrero, Angels. At .345/.392/.591 and with the usual stellar defense in right,Vlad’s $70 million contract is looking like a bargain.

SP Curt Schilling, Red Sox. Now that he’s out of Randy Johnson’s league, the path may finally be clear for Schilling to pick up a Cy Young Award.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

C Johnny Estrada,Braves.We admit it: We laughed at the Estrada-for-Kevin Millwood trade, too. With Estrada posting a robust .332/.382/.481 performance this season,Braves’ GM John Schuerholz is the one laughing now.

1B Jim Thome, Phillies. The adjustment to the new park has been no problem: Thome leads the NL in home homers with 16.

2B Mark Loretta, Padres. Yes, it’s a weak year for NL second basemen too, but Loretta’s 36.4 VORP leads the league by a wide margin, accounting for about three-and-a-half more wins than your standard-issue Quadruple-A tweener. He’s durable and plays some defense too.

3B Scott Rolen, Cardinals. In a league that consisted only of mortals (i.e., no Bonds), Rolen’s .339/.415/.599 and 80 RBI would make him the MVP.

SS Jack Wilson, Pirates. The “defensive specialist” is having a breakthrough offensive season, hitting .332/.354/.501. Whether he can maintain that pace given his hack-at-everything approach (11 walks in 374 plate appearances) may be another matter.

LF Barry Bonds, Giants. A .628 OBA? With anyone else, we’d be amazed.With Bonds, we’re not.

CF Jim Edmonds,Cardinals.He rarely gets the recognition he deserves, but Edmonds is quietly having another outstanding season.

RF Bobby Abreu, Phillies. J.D. Drew’s standout year also deserves mention here, but Abreu’s extra playing time gives him the tiebreaker.

SP Jason Schmidt,Giants.Two one-hitters and wins in 11 straight decisions. Of course, you could just as easily pick Ben Sheets, Roger Clemens, or Randy Johnson here. The NL Cy Young race will be fun.

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SURPRISES AND DISAPPOINTMENTS

Which teams are in over their heads, and which teams aren’t living up to their potential? Here’s our take on the majors’ biggest underachievers and overachievers in the first half:

UNDERACHIEVERS

PHILLIES How can a first place team be labeled “underachieving?” Because on paper, the Phillies should be running away with the division,not nursing a onegame lead.

The starting rotation has been a disaster, and only a sensational rookie season by Ryan Madson has kept the bullpen afloat. Improved second-half pitching is essential if this team is to avoid joining the long line of Phillie disappointments.

RED SOX Boston may be seven games back in the standings, but their runsscored/runs-allowed differential is actually larger than the Yankees’, suggesting that this team has played into more than its share of bad luck.

History tells us that the runs ledger is a better predictor of future success than W/L record, so the Red Sox are a good bet to improve. They’re still the odds-on favorite for the Wild Card.

CUBS Whatever his faults, Dusty Baker usually manages to keep his starting rotation healthy. That changed in a big way this year,as key injuries to Mark Prior and Kerry Wood have forced the likes of Sergio Mitre and Glendon Rusch into the rotation.

With Prior and Wood nearly back at full speed, the Cubs still may still have enough to make a run at the Cardinals for the NL Central crown. If not, they look good for the wild card.

OVERACHIEVERS

RANGERS Bullpens are notoriously unpredictable, and any time a team like the Rangers turns around its fortunes on the backs of relievers, there’s cause for skepticism.

Make no mistake, the young, talented Rangers are heading in the right direction. But it remains to be seen whether the pitching can stay at a level that will keep them ahead of the Angels and A’s.

CARDINALS Everything that could go right for the Cardinals has.They’ve been very healthy. They’ve had their share of career years – and, more importantly, no big disappointments – on the offensive end.

They’ve gotten very good work out of a rotation featuring Jeff Suppan,Woody Williams, and Jason Marquis. And they’ve enjoyed sensational bullpen work from lefty specialists Steve Kline and Ray King. With a seven-game lead and plenty of offensive talent, the Cardinals probably will hang on to the division lead, even if they come back to earth a bit in the second half.

METS If we had predicted that the Mets would have the NL’s second-best starting rotation,you would have started phoning friends to perform the intervention. But it’s true: Tom Glavine,Al Leiter, SteveTrachsel,et.al.are behind only the Cubs in starters’ ERA. If the Phillies, Braves,and Marlins play to their abilities in the second half, however, it will be tough for the Mets to keep up.

This article was provided by Baseball Prospectus. The Sun will run exclusive content from Baseball Prospectus throughout the 2004 season. For more state-of-the-art baseball content, visit www.baseballprospectus.com.