Tonight’s Rose Bowl will be the most difficult test of USC’s dynasty. During their 34-game winning streak, the Trojans have not faced a defense the caliber of Texas’s, nor a quarterback with the sheer ability of Vince Young. Then again, the same could be said of Texas and its 19-game undefeated run in regard to USC.

USC coach Pete Carroll is probably more worried about the problem of Young than he is about Texas’s defense, and not just because his background is on the defensive side of the ball. Young is a unique talent, with great size, speed, and elusiveness as a runner and tremendous arm strength and poise as a passer.

Observers see a USC pass defense that is ranked 73rd in the nation and think Young could have an easy time exploiting a weak secondary on his way to a huge night. But a closer look reveals that the Trojan defense is stronger against the pass than the ranking would indicate. USC snatched 22 interceptions (part of a nation’s best 37 turnovers forced), tied for third in the nation, and recorded 32 sacks – two more than Texas, which is generally though to have the better pass rush.

Most of USC’s defensive-line sacks come from the ends, Lawrence Jackson and Frostee Rucker,who will have to resist the urge to push too far upfield as a caution against Young’s extraordinary mobility. Carroll is a master tactician , and will not allow his charges to overlook this crucial point.

Young is a marvelous player, but he can be slowed. Against the best defense he has faced this season, Ohio State, he was pressured into two interceptions and fumbled the ball twice, though Texas recovered both.

Many of Texas’s big pass plays are a result of Young using his legs to buy time and induce the defense into breaking down. If a disciplined USC pass rush forces him to stand in the pocket, I don’t think he’ll have the same level of success he’s used to. And if that occurs, he could get frustrated, which would play right into USC’s hands.

Young enters this game with a Texas sized chip on his shoulder after losing the Heisman Trophy to USC’s Reggie Bush. He wants to make a statement – specifically, that the result should have been reversed. But he can’t allow that to affect his play. The last time Young tried to make a statement in the Heisman race – against Texas A &M six days after Bush all but clinched the award with his performance against Fresno State – he endured his worst game of the season. I don’t think that will happen tonight, but Young needs to play relaxed. The setting may be familiar after his sublime performance in last year’s Rose Bowl win over Michigan, but this is a far brighter spotlight and a far superior opponent.

Texas is not a one-man team, far from it. But everything else the Longhorns do offensively comes out of what Young is able to accomplish. They’re an excellent rushing team, but won’t be if Young struggles. That’s not the case for USC, which could still win if quarterback Matt Leinart struggles, thanks to the likes of Reggie Bush.

Ahh, Mr. Bush. Just as USC has not seen a player of Young’s caliber this season, so too have the Longhorns not seen a talent quite like the man who wears no. 5 for the Trojans. After two seasons of tinkering with Bush by using him all over the field, USC has found that the best way to get him the ball is in the backfield, and let him work his magic. He’s likely to draw a disproportionate amount of Texas’s defensive attention, particularly from safety Michael Huff, winner of the Jim Thorpe Award as the nation’s best defensive back.

Huff might be effective against Bush when he splits wide. But keep in mind that Oklahoma made a concerted – and successful – effort to slow Bush in last year’s Orange Bowl, opening the doors for a huge game by backfield mate LenDale White and the Trojan receivers.

Trying to defend USC is truly a case of “pick your poison,” and a Texas defense that’s used to having its way with opponents could be slow to accept that it’s going to surrender both yards and points to the Trojans.

The most likely scenario is that Texas will blitz USC in an effort to put some hits on Leinart, who has taken a few beatings this season. But that’s a risky strategy when both wideouts, Steve Smith and Dwayne Jarrett, are of NFL caliber and Bush is waiting as a safety valve. If Texas somehow covers all those options, there’s always tight end Dominique Byrd.

USC probably has a slight talent edge against Texas’s defense, just as Texas’s offense does against the USC defenders. Texas has the edge in special teams, though it’s difficult to discount any team that can send Bush back to field punts and kickoffs.

Trying to break this game down statistically can be an exercise in futility, one of comparing opponents’ opponents. Does the fact that Ohio State (narrow losers to the Longhorns in September) had its way with Notre Dame (narrow losers to the Trojans in October) in Monday’s Fiesta Bowl mean that the Trojans are in for a surprise? What about Oregon, the Pac-10’s second-best team, losing to a middling Oklahoma squad in the Holiday Bowl? Isn’t that further evidence that Texas’s Big 12 conference is the superior league?

I can toss these teams’ stats up in the air and find a half-dozen reasons why each should win. So why am I picking USC?

The Trojans will win because they’ll be the only team on the field in Pasadena that can treat what is being billed as the Biggest College Football Game In The History Of Western Civilization as just another game.

This USC team is so battle-tested and full of veteran leadership – not to mention overwhelming talent – that it will not be fazed by the Rose Bowl hype. Remember, USC played a game this big last year. It tends to get forgotten that before being dismantled by the Trojans in last year’s Orange Bowl, lots of people thought Oklahoma had a pretty good team, too. Some of those people were NFL general managers, who snatched up 11 Sooners in their most recent draft.

The USC players know their greatness can’t be defined by measurables, other than this one: 34 straight wins and counting. USC has worn a target on its back for two complete seasons – ever since it claimed a share of the 2003 national title with a win over Michigan in the Rose Bowl – and has absorbed many a body blow along the way, but never panicked.

Some see weaknesses exposed in come-from-behind wins over Oregon, Arizona State, Notre Dame, and Fresno State, but the USC players draw strength from the knowledge that if they fall behind by 14 points, it is the opponent, not the Trojans, that is still worried.

I don’t think they’ll fall behind by that many tonight. Texas will watch a fast start fade into yet another USC win and an unprecedented third consecutive national championship.

Southern California, 38-24

Mr. Levine is a regular writer for FootballOutsiders.com.