BCS Stares Down Another Nightmare
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As the college season nears the end of November with so little resolved, it seems fitting that the only team to officially clinch a BCS bowl berth did so following a loss to its most hated rival. While the three top contenders for the two slots in the Orange Bowl were effectively “holding serve” – no. 1 USC was off, no. 2 Oklahoma shut out overmatched Baylor, and no. 3 Auburn held off Alabama in the Iron Bowl – Michigan punched its Rose Bowl ticket despite a rather one-sided loss to Ohio State.
BCS no. 6 Utah completed a perfect regular season with a romp over Brigham Young, all but clinching the first-ever BCS berth for a team outside the six power conferences. Utah players and fans donned sombreros after the game in reference to an expected trip to the Fiesta Bowl in Tempe, Ariz., but it’s possible the Utes could become a hot commodity among BCS games with at-large bids to hand out. While the Rose will likely stick with its traditional Big 10/Pac-10 match-up, the Sugar Bowl may opt to grab Utah.
Michigan entered Saturday’s game with a chance to clinch a Rose Bowl berth with an outright Big 10 title and maintain its top-10 position in the BCS standings, but left on the wrong end of a 37-21 score. That result, an upset because Michigan was 9-1 while Ohio State came in at 6-4, was only stunning to those who don’t know the golden rule: The emotion of a rivalry game is the single greatest equalizer in all of sports. Underdogs, playing at an emotional fever pitch fueled by the appearance of an archrival on the opposite sideline, can sometimes raise their play to levels not seen all year.
That was certainly the case for Ohio State and particularly sophomore quarterback Troy Smith. Smith took over for a struggling and injured Justin Zwick in the Buckeyes’ sixth game, but his impact was far from immediate. He averaged just 137.5 yards passing with four touchdown passes and three interceptions, although the stretch saw the Buckeyes go 3-1.
Nothing Smith had done indicated he was capable of the type of game he produced against the Wolverines. He threw for 241 yards and two touchdowns through the air and rushed for 145 yards and another score on the ground – all against the 20th-ranked defense in the nation. Ohio State, by contrast, entered the contest ranked 108th in total offense.
Having surrendered control of its destiny, Michigan needed an assist from Iowa, which it got when the Hawkeyes beat Wisconsin. The 30-7 win allowed Iowa to share the conference crown with Michigan, but sent the Wolverines to the Rose Bowl by virtue of Michigan’s 30-17 win when the teams played in September. The Badgers, meanwhile, managed to transform a 9-0 start and an express lane to the Rose Bowl into a 9-2 disappointment.
Michigan’s opponent in Pasadena will probably be California, which had a rivalry game of its own Saturday. Cal roughed up underdog Stanford 41-6, though they led just 13-3 midway through the third quarter. Like Utah, Cal will have to wait until December 5 to receive its official invite to the Rose Bowl as an at-large team, but it’s difficult to conceive of a scenario that would keep the Bears from their first trip to Pasadena in 45 years. USC will almost certainly play in the Orange Bowl if it wins its final two games against Notre Dame and UCLA, giving Cal an at-large bid to the Rose if it can win its final contest, a makeup of a hurricane-postponed game at Southern Miss on December 4.
The identity of USC’s opponent in the Orange Bowl remains the biggest debate. Following an impressive win over Georgia on November 13, Auburn again had the better chance to make its case for the BCS as it played at Alabama in its big rivalry game while Oklahoma took on the unimposing Baylor Bears.
Alabama, with one of the nation’s best defenses but a limited offense, nearly duplicated Ohio State’s feat, and might have pulled it off had it been able to turn a couple of first half opportunities into touchdowns. Despite two first-and goals, the Crimson Tide led just 6-0 at the half. Auburn awoke after the intermission, scoring on its first two possessions and adding another touchdown early in the fourth quarter for a 21-13 win.
Like Auburn, Oklahoma also started slowly Saturday, but scored on its first three second-half possessions, allowing coach Bob Stoops to avoid running up the score as he had the previous week against Nebraska. With the score 35-0, Stoops – perhaps wary of voter backlash – inserted his reserves and watched them grind down the clock.
Poll voters reacted to the wins by Auburn and Oklahoma with a shrug. Oklahoma widened its lead over Auburn by two points in the writers’ poll, and grabbed a five-point edge over Auburn in the coaches’ survey (the teams were tied last week). Both schools gained first-place votes at the expense of USC, but the margin between nos. 2-3 remains razor thin.
No matter what the human polls say, Oklahoma has had the edge in the computer rankings that make up one-third of the BCS formula thanks to a decided strength-of-schedule advantage over Auburn, whose non conference slate featured Louisiana-Monroe, The Citadel, and Louisiana Tech. The schedule gap has narrowed somewhat over the last two weeks and will do so further on December 4, when Auburn plays Tennessee in the SEC Championship game while Oklahoma faces a far lesser opponent – likely unranked Iowa State – in the Big XII title match.
Should USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn all win their remaining games, USC’s opponent in the Orange Bowl could be determined by which school is more impressive in its conference title match. Auburn will need to build a lead in the human polls in order to overcome Oklahoma’s advantage with the computers. But if all three teams finish undefeated, the only certainty is that the BCS will face another tornado of criticism for its failure to produce a clear-cut championship game. Of course, that’s always a risk with a system designed to solve an unsolvable problem: how to match two teams in a single championship game no matter how many qualified candidates exist.
Mr. Levine writes for FootballOutsiders.com.