BCS Tries To Make Sense of a Wayward Season

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This is quickly turning into a college football season like no other in recent memory. Three straight weeks of stunning upsets have left the preseason polls in wreckage. Each of the top 10 teams in the AP preseason rankings has at least one loss and together the group has been defeated 16 times in seven weeks. Thus the preseason no. 11 team, Ohio State, is now atop both the polls and the first BCS standings, which were released Sunday afternoon. Behind the Buckeyes sits a pair of Cinderella teams — South Florida and Boston College — clinging to undefeated records, followed by a cluster of once-beaten powerhouses scrambling to get back into the top two spots.

Just as there is every year at this time, there will be predictions of impending BCS disaster, particularly with South Florida currently in position to go to the title game. Can a zero-cachet team from the Big East possibly hold off one-loss LSU from the SEC to play for the championship? What about Boston College from the pedestrian ACC?

All such arguments are more pointless than usual this season. To paraphrase Mark Twain’s famous quip about the weather in New England, if you don’t agree with the polls, just wait a week; they’ll change.

One can argue the merits of college football’s most peculiar method of selecting its “champion” — the quotes being necessary when the NCAA doesn’t acknowledge an official titlist in football’s bowl subdivision — but the three months leading up to the BCS selection show sure are entertaining. In a sport that relies on computer algorithms and human opinion, there is but one nearly assured method by which a team can keep its place at the championship table: by winning each and every week.

Often lost in the long history of BCS controversy is this reality: In the nine years the system has been in place, only once has a team from one of the top six conferences gone undefeated and been denied a place in the championship game: Auburn in 2003. A repeat this season seems unlikely. There are just five remaining major-conference unbeatens, and each has significant tests remaining. Ohio State faces road trips to Penn State and Michigan. Boston College travels to Virginia Tech this week and may have to face the Hokies again in the ACC championship. South Florida visits Rutgers Thursday night and also hosts Cincinnati and Louisville. Arizona State has yet to play Cal, Oregon, or USC. Kansas faces Texas A&M, Nebraska, and Missouri. The chance is slim of more than two of the five finishing with unblemished records.

The coaches of all five teams — even poll laggard Kansas — can tell their players that if they win out, they will play in the January 7 BCS championship, and do so with a straight face.

Ohio State is perhaps the most likely to remain perfect, a feat that would land the Buckeyes back in the championship game for a second straight year. Though the Buckeyes’ toughest game has been a visit to 2–4 Washington, they have been the nation’s most consistent team. The defense has been smothering, surrendering more than seven points just once, and the offense has improved each week.

The fact that five of the six major conferences are represented on the list of unbeaten teams is sure to raise the hackles of followers of the sixth. The SEC has enjoyed a deserved reputation as the nation’s best conference in recent seasons, and its fans will no doubt point out that the toughness of the conference is the reason why all of its teams already have at least one loss. But SEC superiority is sometimes based as much on perception as on-field results, as its teams typically do not play non-conference games against highly ranked foes. LSU did destroy Virginia Tech for the SEC’s best non-conference result this season, but those who would automatically assume that the SEC champ is better than the Big East champ may be missing the bigger picture.

South Florida, the current Big East front-runner, won at Auburn earlier this year. That’s the same Auburn that won at Florida, and the same Florida that is the defending national champs and which came within a Tiger’s whisker of winning at LSU. While it’s true that the week-to-week grind in the SEC is more difficult than in the Big East or Big Ten, it’s also true that the conference is treated well by the BCS formula.

At no. 4, LSU is the highest-ranked one-loss team in the BCS standings. No. 6 South Carolina and no. 7 Kentucky are third and fourth, respectively, among once-beaten teams, and Florida (14th), Auburn (17th), and Georgia (20th) are the only two-loss teams in the BCS top 20.

The net result is that the SEC champion, provided it finishes with a 12–1 mark, has an excellent chance to qualify for the title game.

That may not be good enough in the eyes of SEC supporters who would cringe if undefeated South Florida or Boston College edged the SEC champion in the final BCS standings. Such a result would no doubt renew calls for a more inclusive playoff. But as has been often pointed out, college football already has a playoff: It’s called the regular season. To make a change that would minimize the impact of Cal’s loss to Oregon State or LSU’s to Kentucky might do irreparable damage to the sport.

After all, do fans really want to see college football turn into another version of the NFL, where yesterday’s win by the Patriots over the Cowboys in a much-hyped battle of undefeated teams is, ultimately, essentially meaningless in the Super Bowl chase?

For good or for bad, the frustration that comes with BCS controversy is the same ingredient that fuels the majesty of the best regular season in all of sports.

Mr. Levine is writer for FootballOutsiders.com.


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