Beijing May Be Federer’s Last Chance for Gold

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Roger Federer often has described the 2012 Olympic tennis tournament, which will be played on the lawns of the All England Club, as a target, a time when he would like to take the measure of his career and determine whether to continue full on, play sparingly, or retire at the ripe old age of 31.

“After that, you have to see how you feel,” Federer said on the eve of Wimbledon in 2006. “Sometimes, motivation comes back; maybe eventually it totally goes away. At the moment, I’m very motivated. I could see myself only playing 10 tournaments a year for a couple of years maybe at the end of my career. You know, it depends if you have family, where you live, where you want to play, all this stuff. We’ll see.”

No one, least of all Federer, would have guessed that this year’s Olympic Games in Beijing would force Federer to reflect on where his career is headed right now. At the opening ceremonies on Friday, Federer will have much to mull over as he carries the Swiss flag. August 8 is his 27th birthday, which means he’s a year closer to senior citizen status in tennis (Pete Sampras, who won a record 14 major titles, won only one after the age of 30; Federer now has 12).

Though Federer will be the top seed at this tournament when it begins on Sunday, he won’t be the favorite: Rafael Nadal will have that honor, followed closely by Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic, who are all playing much better tennis than Federer since the world no. 1 lost the Wimbledon final to Nadal. On August 18, the day after the Olympic tennis tournament ends, Federer will lose the no. 1 ranking he has held since February 2004, no matter what color medal he wins. Federer will not be the top seed at the U.S. Open, either.

For the man who has dominated tennis like no one in the history of the game, his fall, as it were, has been swift and painful. But there may be good news in all this for Federer. If the Olympics hold true to form, the favorite will not win the men’s tournament. Since tennis returned to the Olympics in 1988, after a 64-year absence, three of the five male gold medalists never won a major title or held the no. 1 ranking. Those three gold medal matches, in fact, offered some of the most surprising pairings the game has known: In 1988, Miloslav Mecir defeated Tim Mayotte; in 1992, Marc Rosset, the hard-serving Swiss, defeated Jordi Arrese, and in 2004, Nicolas Massu became the first Chilean to win Olympic gold when he defeated Mardy Fish (he also won a gold in doubles with partner Fernando Gonzalez). In all those years, many of the finest players in the world showed up, but all of them left early — including Federer, who lost in the second round in Athens in 2004, shortly after he won his second Wimbledon title.

Federer’s defeats in Toronto and Cincinnati the last two weeks cost him his no. 1 ranking. But those tournaments will come again, as will chances to regain the top spot in the world. The same can’t be said for the Olympics. Even if Federer hangs on until 2012, the odds are slim that he will be fit enough to win a medal at that point in his career. Beijing presents him with his last chance to win a gold and his first moment of true pressure since the Wimbledon final. How he responds will be the story of the tournament.

The only notable absence from the men’s draw this year is Andy Roddick, who has decided to remain in America to improve his chances at winning a U.S. Open title in September. Most of the top men are playing doubles, too. Federer will pair with Stanislas Wawrinka, and Nadal will play with Tommy Robredo. American twins Bob and Mike Bryan, who won the title in Cincinnati on Sunday, will be in search of their first medal.

One thing is for certain about the women’s tournament in Beijing: There will not be a surprise winner, if only because the women’s game is so unpredictable at the moment that nothing can qualify as a surprise. Maria Sharapova, who started the year in fine fashion at the Australian Open, has a tear in her right shoulder and will miss at least the games and the U.S. Open and perhaps more. Ana Ivanovic, who won the French Open, played terribly in Montreal last week after injuring her thumb in practice. Venus and Serena Williams are nursing injuries and have played sparingly since Wimbledon, where they met in the singles final (won by Venus) and won the doubles title. Jelena Jankovic will take over the no. 1 ranking on August 11 despite a 3-7 record against top 10 players this season and only one title.

It’s been a disappointing season in women’s tennis, to say the least, but Dinara Safina, at least, is doing her part to ease the pain. The younger sister of former world no. 1 Marat Safin continues to play the best tennis of her young career (she is 22). She won in Montreal on Sunday, a week after she took a title in Los Angeles. She has won 27 out of 30 matches since May, a run that includes a visit to her first major final (at the French Open, where she lost to Ivanovic). Safina is noticeably more fit than she was in years past, and much more patient. Aside from the Williams sisters, she ranks among the favorites to medal in singles.

Even if they do not play particularly well, the Williams sisters will be the favorites to win the gold in doubles. Favorites on paper, that is. Beijing fans no doubt will root for Zheng Jie and Yan Zi, who won doubles titles at the Australian Open and at Wimbledon in 2006. The pair, who hope to follow in the footsteps of Tian Tian Sun and Li Ting, who won the doubles gold in Athens in 2004, defeated the Williams sisters at the Australian Open earlier this year.

Mr. Perrotta is a senior editor at Tennis magazine. He can be reached at tperrotta@ tennismagazine.com.


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