Inspired by the fact that the only win ticket I knew on the 50-1 shot Giacomo in last year’s Derby was the one chosen by a six year old daughter of a friend of mine, I figured I’d rope a young neighbor, 4-year-old Raina, into choosing horses with me for the Triple Crown. We’ve bet the Derby and the Preakness together, making pretend $5 straight bets – win, place, and show – on our picks. Raina has yet to cash a ticket, she’s $30 down going into this race, and I have cashed two tickets so far: $15 on Barbaro, bet to show in the Derby, and $14.50 on Bernardini, bet to show in the Preakness. It’s a shameful thing all around. For one thing, I’m keeping my head right at the waterline by cashing show bets on horses that destroy the field. For another thing, I’m unnervingly proud of my ability to stay ahead of a 4-year-old. Raina’s picking up the lingo. “I’ll take Bob and John to place,” she told me. I have never been as frightened of a handicapping consensus in my life. That Raina chose Sunriver to win sent me back to the past performances to check him out. In the interest of fairness, I’m not going to let her talk me off my horse.

The Belmont is a great race for longshots, but this race is well matched, and there’s lots of value to be found right in the middle. If Steppenwolfer stays anywhere near 9-2, I’ll bet him across the board with both hands. I’m also going to build exotic bets out of the four horses I think are suited to run this race (Bob and John, Bluegrass Cat, Jazil, Steppenwolfer) by breaking them up a little, keying two of them on top of an exacta, for instance, and then adding in High Finance or Hemingway’s Key on the bottom. That ought to get us headed towards the poorhouse.

RAINA’S PICKS

Win ………………………………Sunriver
Place……………………Bob and John
Show……………………Bluegrass Cat

MAX’S PICKS

Win……………………..Steppenwolfer
Place……………………Bluegrass Cat
Show ……………………High Finance