The NFL playoff picture became clearer yesterday as 12 of 15 games matched division rivals. In the biggest games, the Cincinnati Bengals and Carolina Panthers took steps toward winning their AFC North and NFC Central, while the Kansas City Chiefs narrowed the gap in their division AFC West, and the surprising Minnesota Vikings established themselves as wild card contenders.

In yesterday’s biggest development, Cincinnati all but assured itself of the AFC North championship and its first postseason appearance since 1990 with a 38-31 win at Pittsburgh. Cincinnati now has a two-game lead with only four games remaining.

Pittsburgh’s defense always focuses on taking away the opposition’s top receiver, so Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer signaled from the beginning of the game that he planned to distribute the ball to all of his receivers. On Cincinnati’s first drive, Palmer didn’t complete any passes to his top targets, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, but hit rookie Chris Henry three times. Over the course of the game, Palmer continually looked beyond his first option to exploit favorable matchups, and in the end Johnson, Houshmandzadeh and Henry each finished with five catches, while Palmer finished 22-of-38 for 227 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions.

Cincinnati’s strong safety Ifeanyi Ohalete played the run more than the pass, giving Cincinnati eight players to stop the run in much the same way Indianapolis did to shut Pittsburgh down last Monday night. That allowed the Bengals to hold Steelers running backs Willie Parker, Jerome Bettis, and Duce Staley to only 86 yards on 24 attempts. It also allowed Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to throw for 386 yards, but Cincinnati intercepted him three times.

After getting off to a 7-2 start, Pittsburgh is now 7-5 and fighting for a wild-card spot. Cincinnati is almost certainly in the playoffs, but the Bengals’ 9-3 record has come against a soft schedule. The Bengals are now 7-0 against teams with losing records and 2-3 against teams with winning records. With Cincinnati’s next three games against bottom-dwellers Cleveland, Detroit, and Buffalo, the Bengals could easily end up 12-4 but unsure of their ability to handle a playoff-caliber opponent in January.

Cincinnati is now jockeying for position with 9-3 Denver for a bye during the first week of the AFC playoffs. The Broncos lost 31-27 to the Kansas City Chiefs, reducing to one game Denver’s lead in the AFC West and putting the Chiefs ahead of the Steelers for the wild-card race.

Kansas City’s Larry Johnson ran for more than 100 yards for the fifth straight game since taking over the starting running back spot from the injured Priest Holmes. Johnson’s tough running makes the Chiefs a real threat to anyone they meet in the postseason.

Denver’s loss could make the Indianapolis Colts’ run at a perfect 16-0 season less likely. The Colts now have a three-game lead for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, meaning Indianapolis could begin to focus less on winning games and more on resting top players for a Super Bowl charge.

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The Atlanta Falcons have had the Carolina Panthers’ number in the last five years, winning nine times in 10 games. But yesterday’s 24-6 Panthers victory was Carolina’s most impressive showing of the season, demonstrating it now has the upper hand in the NFC South.

Panthers coach John Fox is the kind of old-fashioned coach who wants his team, first and foremost, to run well and stop the run. Carolina did both yesterday. Atlanta has struggled all year at stopping opposing runners, and yesterday Carolina’s offensive line opened big holes in the Atlanta front seven. Running back DeShaun Foster followed those holes 24 times for 131 yards and added three catches for 49 yards for his biggest game of the season.

To stop the Falcons’ rushing attack, the Panthers stacked their defense close to the line of scrimmage, using as many as six defensive linemen on the field at a time and bringing backup safety Thomas Davis in to play a hybrid safety-linebacker position. Those tactics worked, especially against Atlanta’s short-yardage back, T.J. Duckett, who couldn’t manage a first down and finished the day with as many yards as carries: four.

Falcons quarterback Michael Vick had Panthers in his face all day and didn’t take advantage of Carolina’s run-focused defense, completing only 17 of 35 passes for 171 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. Carolina blitzed Vick relentlessly and sacked him five times.

The win gives Carolina a 9-3 record, a two-game lead over the 7-5 Falcons, and sets up another big NFC South game next week, when the Panthers host the 8-4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A win next week would all but seal the division title for the Panthers and allow them to focus next on winning home field advantage in the playoffs.

Atlanta’s loss puts the Falcons in the middle of a wild-card race with the 7-5 Dallas Cowboys and the surging Minnesota Vikings, who were left for dead after a 2-5 start but have now won five in a row.

Quarterback Brad Johnson continues to play well in Minnesota, which has developed into an impressive offense since starter Daunte Culpepper was lost for the season with a knee injury. Johnson is known more as a game manager than a big-play passer, but he connected with Koren Robinson on passes of 80 and 45 yards in yesterday’s 21-15 win over the Detroit Lions.

Johnson’s emergence isn’t the only reason for the Vikings’ turnaround. Minnesota has perhaps the league’s best pair of veteran safeties in Darren Sharper and Corey Chavous, the leaders of the Minnesota secondary that dominated Detroit quarterback Jeff Garcia, who completed 17 of 35 passes for 126 yards, a pathetic 3.6 yards per pass. Chavous added an interception with a minute remaining to end the Lions’ final rally.

Minnesota gets three of its final four games at home. If the Vikings can win those games, Minnesota fans will celebrate a playoff berth in the Metrodome, an ending to this season that no one could have imagined.

Mr. Smith is a writer for the statistical Web site FootballOutsiders.com.