Best Crops on Local Farms Have Yet To Be Picked

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The New York Sun

Covering the world of baseball prospects requires one to rank each and every young player. But instead of doing the usual team-by-team top 10s, here’s a combined list of the top 10 New York prospects, combining the best of the future Mets and Yankees. Neither farm system boasts much talent at the top, but both have plenty of young players who offer a lot to get excited about.


1. LASTINGS MILLEDGE, OF, METS


The phrase five-tool talent (run, hit for average, hit for power, catch, throw) gets thrown around in the scouting community excessively, but Milledge is the real deal. He can hit any pitch and his speed makes him an asset both on the base paths and in center field. If there’s a knock against him, it’s that he’s impatient, though to hit .337 AVG/.392 OBA/.487 SLG in Double-A as a 20-year-old requires special talent. Millege is a future all-star, but the development of his power will determine whether he’ll be a leadoff man or a no. 3 hitter.


2. MIKE PELFREY, RHP, METS


The Mets nabbed Pelfrey with the no. 9 overall pick in last year’s draft when no one else wanted to deal with agent Scott Boras. Despite not signing until just before spring training, Pelfrey immediately showed why he was given a $5.25 million guaranteed big league deal before even donning a uniform.


Pelfrey throws a mid-90s fastball with heavy sink and an advanced changeup, and all of his pitches are on an extreme downward plane thanks to his 6-foot-7-inch frame. Pelfrey pitched five shutout innings with seven strikeouts in his pro debut in the Florida State League, should be in Double-A by June, and could see Shea by September.


3. PHILIP HUGHES, RHP, YANKEES


The Yankees made up for an otherwise miserable draft record by picking Hughes, the prize of the 2004 class. If there was a mold for right-handed starting prospects, it would look like Hughes – at 6-foot-5, 220 pounds, he has the ideal pitcher’s build, along with a low-to-mid 90s fastball and a big slider. What puts Hughes over the top is his remarkable command. In 91 pro innings, he’s walked just 20 batters while striking out 101. The Yankees have treated him with kid gloves thus far, shutting him down in 2005 because of shoulder soreness. But they’re ready to give him 150+ innings this year, and he has a a chance to reach the majors before he’s 21.


4. JOSE TABATA, OF, YANKEES


Now we enter the highly speculative stage. Tabata received a $550,000 bonus as a 16-year-old Venezuelan and blew scouts away in his Gulf Coast League debut, showing an advanced approach at the plate (.382 OBP), speed (a league leading 22 stolen bases), and the ability to make consistent contact and show power. The only real negative is that he’s so far away from the majors and a lot could still go wrong. Right now, his ceiling is somewhere in the stratosphere.


5. FERNANDO MARTINEZ, OF, METS


Martinez is basically the Mets’ version of Tabata, only he’s Dominican. He was the subject of a long bidding war last summer that the Mets finally won by offering a signing bonus of $1.4 million. Two months younger than Tabata, Martinez is nearly his equal in tools. He’s an advanced hitter with plenty of power projection, and is an excellent all-around athlete. Unlike Tabata, we have no statistical track record to go on; all we have are the glowing scouting reports.


6. ERIC DUNCAN, 1B, YANKEES


Duncan was the Yankees’ first-round pick in 2003, a local product who starred at West Orange High School in New Jersey. The Yankees were aggressive in Duncan’s development, pushing him to Double-A in 2005 as a 20-year-old.Sent to the prospect-laden Arizona Fall League after last season, Duncan moved from third base (where he struggled) to first, and the bat came alive. The hitting continued with an impressive spring, and Duncan is back on track as the best hitter in the upper-levels of the system.


7. AUSTIN JACKSON, OF, YANKEES


The Yankees used their deep pockets to sign Jackson last summer. A top high school point guard who had committed to Georgia Tech, the Yankees took him in the eighth round when other teams stayed away and signed him for second round money ($800,000) to sway him from hoops. Jackson profiles as a classic leadoff man in center field: He’s a graceful fielder who understands the value of a walk and knows how to use his speed.


8. C.J. HENRY, SS, YANKEES


Combined with Jackson, Henry – who was also a highly recruited high school guard before signing a $1.575 million deal as the Yankees’ first-round pick last June – gives the Yankees a backcourt that rivals any Division I school. Even with Tabata and Jackson around, Henry is the best pure athlete in the system and fits the definition of the new breed of shortstop: Big, fast, and powerful.Like Jackson, he’ll need extra time to develop because of his two-sport commitment in high school.


9. PHILIP HUMBER, RHP, METS


Last year at this time, Humber would have ranked much higher on this list. The third pick in the 2004 draft, he was considered one of the top arms available, but he never seemed right in his pro debut, posting a 5.09 ERA in 15 games. After his first Double-A start, Humber complained of elbow pain and subsequently underwent Tommy John surgery. He won’t return to the mound until mid-season at the earliest, but the Mets can take solace in the fact that the Tommy John success rate rises every year.


10. DEOLIS GUERRA, RHP, METS


Not only did the Mets sign the top 2005 Dominican hitter in Martinez, they signed the top Venezuelan pitcher in Guerra, who received $700,000 last summer. Guerra, who turns 17 next week, is all about projection. At 6-foot-5 and 200 pounds, he already throws in the low 90s and should add plenty of velocity once he actually learns how to pitch. He already shows the ability to spin a curve and has feel for the changeup, as well. As with the other teenagers on this list, it’s easy to get excited, but we can’t start penciling him into future lineups… yet.



Mr. Goldstein is a writer for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art commentary,visit www.baseballprospectus.com.


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