For the first time in a long time, there’s no obvious favorite for national champion in college basketball, and there’s no clear frontrunner for Player of the Year. The storylines don’t flow as easily: No Florida juggernaut to defend its title, no Redick vs. Morrison, no Oden vs. Durant. That’s a good thing for hoops fans. With no surefire favorites, conference races should be hotly contested throughout the year. The lack of big-name players gives us a chance to appreciate more players’ skills, including some of the top mid-major talents. For now, forget March. Get ready for five full months of Madness.

The Contenders

NORTH CAROLINA
(Last season: lost in Elite Eight)

The Tar Heels earned their preseason no. 1 status thanks to their superior talent. North Carolina returns Player of the Year candidate Tyler Hansbrough, sharpshooter Wayne Ellington, and the usual 10-deep Roy Williams roster. They’ll run you ragged on offense and pressure you silly on defense. If point guard Ty Lawson’s decision-making improves in his sophomore season, they’re as good a bet as anyone to win it all. Of course, the Heels were loaded last year too, and couldn’t make it past the regional final.

UCLA
(Last season: lost in Final Four)

Goodbye Arron Afflalo. Hello Kevin Love. Talent-wise, the Bruins should be very similar after this exchange. But how will UCLA’s style of play differ when their offense revolves around a cerebral bruiser who patterns his game after Bill Walton and Wes Unseld (Love), instead of a slasher and shutdown defender (Afflalo)? Josh Shipp needs to fill Afflalo’s perimeter scoring void, while Darren Collison needs to live up to his preseason first-team All-America status.

MEMPHIS
(Last season: lost in Elite Eight)

Freshman deluxe Derrick Rose has already shown signs of greatness in the Coaches vs. Cancer season-opener tournament. Rose beefs up a typically explosive John Calipari squad that includes Chris Douglas-Roberts and an army of athletes at every position. But can the Tigers prevail in a hard-fought tournament game against an elite opponent? If they don’t improve on last year’s 321st-ranked free-throw shooting performance, probably not.

KANSAS
(Last season: lost in Elite Eight)

For all the fixating on Brandon Rush’s recovery from a torn ACL, you’d think people have forgotten about supersophs Darrell Arthur and Sherron Collins, not to mention backcourt stabilizers Russell Robinson and Mario Chalmers. Still, the team lost do-it-all point forward Julian Wright, the glue guy on a team stacked with go-to scorers. How will the Jayhawks define their pecking order when tournament time arrives? Bill Self, still seeking his first Final Four, is hoping for answers.

GEORGETOWN
(Last season: lost in Final Four)

The Hoyas lose one of the most versatile players in America in Jeff Green, but retain seven-footer Roy Hibbert, after the big man bypassed the NBA draft for a title run. Da-Juan Summers was a highly recruited blue-chipper who stepped right into the starting lineup as a freshman last season, so he should be able to fill much of Green’s scoring void, if not quite his all-around game. With Georgetown, Louisville, and Marquette all highly ranked and several other teams knocking on the door, the Big East could be a bloodbath this season.

LOUISVILLE
(Last season: lost in second round)

Few teams exemplified the importance of regular season success last season better than Louisville. The Cardinals battled injuries and especially inconsistency through much of the regular season, resulting in a no. 6 seed for the NCAA tournament. After crushing Stanford, Louisville bowed out against a loaded Texas A&M team. A stronger November to February could make all the difference this year, because few squads can match Louisville’s talent. With Edgar Sosa and Terrence Williams streaking down the court and Juan Palacios, Derrick Caracter, and David Padgett banging people around inside, Louisville might blow out more good teams than anyone in the nation. Still, questions remain: Can Sosa distribute the ball more effectively? Can erstwhile 300-pounder Caracter keep the weight off? Can Palacios stay healthy? Louisville is the nation’s biggest boom or bust team heading into the season.

TENNESSEE
(Last season: lost in Sweet 16)

If it seems like Chris Lofton’s been at Tennessee since the Ford administration, that’s only because he’s been burying contested 28-foot jumpers since the day he set foot on campus. The senior leader will get plenty of help from the Smith boys: Iowa transfer Tyler, second-leading scorer JaJuan, and backcourt mate Ramar. Sophomores Wayne Chism and Duke Crews give the Vols some much needed frontcourt talent to go with its strength on the perimeter. Add Bruce Pearl’s pressure defense and you have a terrifying March opponent for any Final Four hopeful.

INDIANA
(Last season: lost in second round)

Eric Gordon deserves all the hype, as Big Ten opponents will quickly learn this season. Indiana’s clampdown defense nearly knocked out mighty UCLA in the second round of the tourney last year. Now the Hoosiers have Gordon to score from outside and off the dribble, giving them one of the country’s best 1-2 punches with post player deluxe D.J. White. The supporting cast includes three-point threats A.J. Ratliff and Armon Bassett and a cast of improving role players. Ohio State was the conference darling last year and Michigan State’s getting the hype this season, but Indiana could make the deepest run of any Big 10 team.

MARQUETTE
(Last season: lost in second round)

Here’s another team that will test the theory of guard play mattering most of all in the tournament. The four-headed monster of Dominic James, Jerel McNeal, Wesley Matthews, and David Cubillan is back for another run, this time with a deeper supporting cast up front. Getting 6-foot-7-inch, 240-pound freshman Trevor Mbakwe eligible gives this squad a big lift — he could get significant minutes by the season’s home stretch. The Eagles look a lot like the four-guard, Elite Eight Villanova team that gave everyone fits two years ago, only with more frontcourt weapons than the Cats had. Watch out.

Final Four Prediction

NORTH CAROLINA

Star talent + depth + defense + Wayne Ellington’s evolution into Carolina’s next Rashad McCants/Jerry Stackhouse-type scorer = a spot in San Antonio. Roy Williams’s teams will wear everyone out, on both sides of the ball.

UCLA

The most underrated player for any top team might be Bruins guard Russell Westbrook. Just as Darren Collison became a star when Jordan Farmar left, Westbrook will do the same when Collison leaves for NBA riches. For now, he’ll settle for being a defensive stopper and an explosive scorer when he gets the chance.

TENNESSEE

Chris Lofton is my pick for Player of the Year, and also Player Most Likely To Make You Gasp at His Ridiculous Shooting Range. Lofton’s decision to return for his senior year will pay dividends with a Final Four trip, thanks to the best supporting cast he’s ever had.

MARQUETTE

Darkhorse alert! Teams like Memphis, Kansas, Georgetown, and Louisville have more overall talent and get a lot more press. But the Golden Eagles own the kind of strong guard play you want on your side in close tournament games, with enough help up front to keep teams honest. Look for Marquette to make its first Final Four appearance since the Dwyane Wade era.

5 Breakout Players

BRANDON COSTNER, N.C. State
(6’9″ forward, 16.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg)

It’s tough to call a player who put those kinds of numbers as a freshman a breakout candidate in his sophomore season. But this will be the year the rest of the country finds out about the Wolfpack’s lefty terror. Costner’s coming out party came in the ACC tournament, when he tossed in 30 points in an opening-round win over Duke, and 28 more in a championship-game loss to North Carolina. He’ll lead one of the best frontcourts in America, giving N.C. State a good shot at a deep tournament run.

TAJ GIBSON, USC
(6’9″ forward, 12.2 ppg, 8.7 rpg)

Gibson is Costner’s right-handed doppelganger, a huge talent who should get better as a sophomore while grabbing some ink as his team achieves a higher profile. While upperclassmen Nick Young, Gabe Pruitt, and Lodrick Stewart took most of the team’s shots last season, Gibson contented himself with a series of put-backs and dunks, while anchoring a thin front line for the Trojans. With last year’s big three gone and everyone’s attention now on prized recruit O.J. Mayo, Gibson should become even more valuable.

D.J. AUGUSTIN, Texas
(5’11” guard, 14.4 ppg, 6.7 apg)

Basketball connoisseurs know how vital Augustin was to the success of last year’s Longhorns. But Kevin Durant’s early departure for the NBA should open the eyes of more casual viewers. Augustin has a chance to put up some huge numbers in Texas’ up-tempo attack, especially now that he’s the team’s no. 1 scoring option as well as its main distributor. Expect plenty of 20-10 nights and more than a few late-game daggers.

RAYMAR MORGAN, Michigan State
(6’7″ forward, 11.7 ppg, 5.2 rpg)

It can take a while for a young player to learn the ropes in Tom Izzo’s demanding, defense-heavy system. Morgan struggled at times last year, averaging just 27.5 minutes a game and alternating flashes of brilliance with freshman mistakes. This season, look for Izzo to take the shackles off, making Morgan the clear-cut running mate to senior gunner and preseason All-American Drew Neitzel. Some are calling Michigan State a Final Four darkhorse; Morgan’s performance will play the biggest role in charting the Spartans’ path.

CHASE BUDINGER, Arizona
(6’7″ forward, 15.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg)

For all the hype raining down on the conference’s incoming freshmen, it’s good old Arizona that sports the top candidate for Pac-10 Player of the Year. Budinger will be the unquestioned leader of a Wildcats team looking to claw their way back to the top of the conference. Twenty points a game should be a cinch, but Budinger’s ability to rebound and play stronger defense could be more important for Arizona’s chances.

The Sleepers

BUTLER
(Last season: lost in sweet 16)

It’s hard to top a season with a Top 10 ranking, a no. 5 seed in the NCAA tournament, and a March run that ends in the Sweet 16, only after eventual national champion Florida knocked you out in the final minute. Quadruple that if you’re from the underfunded, underrated Horizon League. Yet the Bulldogs have been underestimated again this preseason. The team’s best player, sharpshooting guard A.J. Graves, is one of the best players in the country, period. Fellow senior Mike Green gives Butler a formidable backcourt. Pete Campbell hit a school record 51.9% of his three-point tries off bench, and newcomers Avery Jukes and Matt Howard should provide help up front.

CLEMSON
(Last season: lost in NIT finals)

These days, it’s rare to find star-caliber players willing to hang around two or three seasons, let alone stay all four. Clemson’s top guns might not match the likes of Tim Duncan in terms of senior talent, but the Tigers do sport one of the best combinations of ability and experience anywhere in the country. Senior Cliff Hammonds will run the offense from the backcourt, while fellow fourth-year man James Mays an abble collection of big men. Senioe forward Sam Perry is the team’s glue guy and junior guard K.C. Rivers is the top returning scorer. The Tigers’ X-factor is Trevor Booker. The 2006 South Carolina Player of the Year has a chance to wreak havoc on the ACC. Despite their scant postseason history, Clemson is a major Sweet 16 threat this season.

VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
(Last season: lost in second round)

The pollsters accounted for the loss of the school’s all-time three-point shooter (B.A. Walker) and its senior leader (Jesse Pellot-Rosa) in leaving the Colonials out of the preseason top 25. But the VCU squad that became mid-major darlings by knocking out Duke and nearly upsetting Pitt in last year’s tourney is locked and loaded for another run this season. Eric Maynor is one of the best point guards in the nation and a candidate for conference player of the year honors. Senior forward Michael Anderson is a great athlete and a disrupter on defense. Fellow senior Will Fameni will be the go-to option down low. But the key to VCU’s success will be Jamal Shuler. The senior guard can shoot it from the parking lot and should be the team’s top scorer.

GEORGE MASON
(Last season: no postseason)

Trying to figure out who’ll be this year’s George Mason? It just might be …George Mason. The Patriots return all five starters this year, including four seniors and one junior. Though Mason couldn’t even crack the NIT last year, another year of seasoning could loom large. Low-post difference maker Will Thomas and swingman Folarin Campbell were key members of the Mason team that made that improbable run to the Final Four two seasons ago. Andre Smith, a junior college transfer a year ago, improved as the season wore on, leading the Patriots in scoring during the Colonial’s postseason tourney. If the lightning-quick 6-foot guard can replicate that scoring over an entire season, the Patriots will be dancing again — maybe for a while.

WASHINGTON
(Last season: no postseason)

In any other conference, you could pencil the Huskies in for an NCAA tournament bid right now. Throwback power forward and all Pac-10 performer Jon Brockman is back for his junior season after bypassing the NBA draft. Quincy Pondexter brings scoring and versatility at the three slot. Justin Dentmon returns to run the point, and Ryan Appleby gives UW one of the best long-range bombers in the game. Add a trio of highly-touted freshmen forwards and the Huskies should have little trouble making up for Spencer Hawes’ early departure to the next level. The bigger question: Can Washington navigate a murderous Pac-10 schedule and impress the selection committee enough to get to the round of 65, after dual NCAA and NIT snubs last year?